I started a really long response but I'll cut to the short version. This is less an argument than an explanation why I'm sanguine.Thanks for the thoughtful reply.
I do suspect this is the worst 5-game stretch since 2015, but I will concede that I haven’t really scrubbed for details (I’m on vacation with 4 kids).
I did have the beginning of 2016 in mind. I remember thinking that while we weren’t grabbing points, we seemed to be playing much better than the prior season. I had a lot of confidence at the time that we would start getting results and make the playoffs.
I hadn’t thought of that second 2016 stretch you mention, but I remember it well. The loss to RSL drove me off the boards and away from the team for 3 weeks. You remember that one - they scored 3 goals on us with 2 shots on goal. And the Orlando tie where the Lions got a header at the death as half our team gave up on the play because the whistle was already late. Again, I think our results lagged our quality in that stretch.
Right now, I think our results are ahead of our quality. The losses to Seattle, Chicago, and Philly weren’t bad luck. They were well deserved. Meanwhile, we were barely able to beat Toronto up a man for 80 minutes - without Jozy’s temper, that’s probably a loss. Even the Orlando win wasn’t strong. We did control possession and were crisp offensively, but we were very poor defending counters (a problem that’s killed us lately), and poor Orlando finishing (4 shots off the post) kept it from being close.
And by the way, 4 of the 5 teams in this stretch are below the playoff line, and 2 are averaging 1 PPG or below.
On the other hand, as you point out, 4 of the 5 games were on the road.
These kinds of analyses are inherently in the eye of the beholder. We are going by our impressions rather than hard evidence (i.e. results). Our overall form looks poor to me. I look forward to them proving me wrong on Wednesday however!
NYC just won 2 of 4 road games, after being winless in 6 straight dating to mid-April. This is a direction that pleases me. I don't worry about winning ugly on the road in MLS. Suddenly, only 5 teams have more Away wins.
For all the hand wringing this weekend about why Dome seemed smart at first and clueless lately: he started with 4 of 5 at home followed by 4 of 5 away. KISS
The Vancouver draw at home? We outplayed them completely, and drew because Johnson was unavailable.
I'm mid-level optimistic for 6 more wins (4H2A) and a mid-60s point total. Could still mean a third place finish, but maybe someone else stumbles, and that's objectively a strong season. Too bad if someone else is better.
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