COVID-19 - Leagues Suspended

mgarbowski said:
There’s never been a virus where people infected do not come out with some resistance, even if it’s imperfect. And there is no evidence of anyone being infected twice yet with this virus. It’s a completely reasonable presumption, especially for purposes of discussion.

There are almost no peer reviewed scientific studies that establish anything yet because the situation is so new and fluid, and making that the standard for what we can say would mean we all have to shut up altogether. That’s a ridiculous standard.

Most fundamentally, you don’t get to tell us what we can and cannot say.
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Flu resistance is usually believed to be in the ballpark of 6-9 months, which is usually just long enough to get people to the next flu season with new strains. If COVID resistance is 6 months, everyone who's had it already is right back where they started at precisely the same time that the 2020 flu season starts. And that's assuming it doesn't evolve over the summer. Social distancing and other measures won't end (or at least they won't stop being the smartest course of action) until there is a vaccine.
 
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People who have recovered from the virus have effective antibodies that confer resistance. Otherwise they would not have recovered from the virus.

No amount of CYA statements from WHO or media touting rare anecdotal cases in order to get clicks changes that. Nor do either of those suggest this virus somehow behaves differently that every disease in the history of humanity.

Ask any medical professional, and he/she will tell you that recovering from this virus confers immunity. And yes, these people are willing to bet their lives on it and are doing so. We don’t know for how long - whether it’s like chicken pox (forever for nearly everyone) or flu (shorter). Much of the difference is due to how much the virus mutates - more rapid mutation leads to shorter immunity. The early reports are that this virus does not mutate much, which is good for immunity (but bad for those hoping it mutates into something more benign).

We can’t keep living like this indefinitely. It’s bankrupting good and decent people, leading to mental health problems, leading people to skip important medical care, and threatening the food supply - among many many other bad things.
 
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FredMertz said:
Flu resistance is usually believed to be in the ballpark of 6-9 months, which is usually just long enough to get people to the next flu season with new strains. If COVID resistance is 6 months, everyone who's had it already is right back where they started at precisely the same time that the 2020 flu season starts. And that's assuming it doesn't evolve over the summer. Social distancing and other measures won't end (or at least they won't stop being the smartest course of action) until there is a vaccine.
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Flu immunity actually has a long fade. If you get the flu one year, then you likely have some limited immunity that can keep the disease from being too bad if you contract it for a couple years after that. It’s imperfect, so you should always get the flu shot too (which itself is imperfect).

Ultimately, this is one possible outcome for COVID. It could be a seasonal disease for which people should get a vaccine each fall. That will help slow the spread and keep cases from being too bad, but it won’t be perfect. It might be that instead of the 40,000 deaths we get every year from flu, we will start getting 80,000 deaths from flu + COVID.

My father died of the flu 2 years ago, so I understand well the tragedy involved. We will want to give resources to top medical professionals to develop the best vaccines and treatments to keep the numbers as low as possible. But ultimately, we will need to continue on with life.
 
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I amended my previous post to say there's no evidence of anyone getting sick twice. It had said no evidence of getting infected twice. I am aware of the SK results where people recovered and later tested positive and my wording was poor. I am not aware of any follow up to report if any of them got sick or to screen for false positives.
 
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Gotham Gator said:
People who have recovered from the virus have effective antibodies that confer resistance. Otherwise they would not have recovered from the virus.

No amount of CYA statements from WHO or media touting rare anecdotal cases in order to get clicks changes that. Nor do either of those suggest this virus somehow behaves differently that every disease in the history of humanity.
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Jeez, that’s a big Fcking hill to die on.

The presence of antibodies is a sign that infection has occurred but it does not guarantee immunity. Antibodies are proteins that fight infection; that’s it.

Here are two different viruses that don’t work as you’re arguing:

Herpes: anybody that becomes infected with herpes gets antibodies, and they may get to a point where they suppress the virus, but the virus is always there dormant in the nervous system cells (just like scientists have discovered with some Covid-19 patients, but you discount as anecdotal) and can come back, even with antibodies present. This isn’t even debatable.

HIV patients all have antibodies in their system. To date, nobody has immunity. Some, with the help of potent antiviral drugs have been able to reduce the virus count to non-traceable test amounts, but those also swell back up if treatment is stopped. Well, one person supposedly has been cured, but again, you don’t like random anecdotal click info.

If science proves antibodies are our godsend savior, then trumpet it as loudly as you want, but these all encompassing statements are misleading, just like your initial hot take that Covid-19 wouldn’t be as bad as the flu. That aged really well.

I’ll counter your recent take on this shutdown is “bankrupting a lot of good & decent people”....... this virus is KILLING a log of good & decent people. A city in Japan, Hokkaido, got out in front of their initial Covid infections and shut the spread down drastically - they then lifted the rules and are now experiencing a quick return - they’re now being touted as what can happen when rules are lifted too soon. And NYC’s economy makes it an open door to neighboring states for daily travel and new vectors. But yes, the economy......
 
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mgarbowski said:
I amended my previous post to say there's no evidence of anyone getting sick twice. It had said no evidence of getting infected twice. I am aware of the SK results where people recovered and later tested positive and my wording was poor. I am not aware of any follow up to report if any of them got sick or to screen for false positives.
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Though, it isn't quite clear if people are actually getting infected twice. There are thoughts that this is either an issue with the testing (as I had posted before from a friend of mine who got his PhD studying infectious diseases), or that its actually just a relapse, and not necessarily a reinfection.

www.reuters.com

Explainer: Why are some South Koreans who recovered from the coronavirus testing positive again?

South Korean health officials are investigating several possible explanations for a small but growing number of recovered coronavirus patients who later test positive for the virus again.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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Ulrich said:
Jeez, that’s a big Fcking hill to die on.

The presence of antibodies is a sign that infection has occurred but it does not guarantee immunity. Antibodies are proteins that fight infection; that’s it.

Here are two different viruses that don’t work as you’re arguing:

Herpes: anybody that becomes infected with herpes gets antibodies, and they may get to a point where they suppress the virus, but the virus is always there dormant in the nervous system cells (just like scientists have discovered with some Covid-19 patients, but you discount as anecdotal) and can come back, even with antibodies present. This isn’t even debatable.

HIV patients all have antibodies in their system. To date, nobody has immunity. Some, with the help of potent antiviral drugs have been able to reduce the virus count to non-traceable test amounts, but those also swell back up if treatment is stopped. Well, one person supposedly has been cured, but again, you don’t like random anecdotal click info.

If science proves antibodies are our godsend savior, then trumpet it as loudly as you want, but these all encompassing statements are misleading, just like your initial hot take that Covid-19 wouldn’t be as bad as the flu. That aged really well.

I’ll counter your recent take on this shutdown is “bankrupting a lot of good & decent people”....... this virus is KILLING a log of good & decent people. A city in Japan, Hokkaido, got out in front of their initial Covid infections and shut the spread down drastically - they then lifted the rules and are now experiencing a quick return - they’re now being touted as what can happen when rules are lifted too soon. And NYC’s economy makes it an open door to neighboring states for daily travel and new vectors. But yes, the economy......
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People don't recover from HIV or herpes. They do recover from Covid-19.

Look, I understand this is a tough situation, and I don't begrudge anyone's concerns. But locking down society is not a long term solution, and there is a lot of good news out there that suggests we have turned the corner and can start looking to take the first steps.
 
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Anyone able to see the flyover today? Luckily with where we are, we had a great view of them coming down the river.

(Also, I understand that there's a lot of discussion on whether or not this was good money spent. I am not looking to get into that at all, just looking to comment on how cool it was to see. Those two should definitely be mutually exclusive.)
 
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SoupInNYC said:
Anyone able to see the flyover today? Luckily with where we are, we had a great view of them coming down the river.

(Also, I understand that there's a lot of discussion on whether or not this was good money spent. I am not looking to get into that at all, just looking to comment on how cool it was to see. Those two should definitely be mutually exclusive.)
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I saw it and was very impressed. The kids were really excited, and it made a big difference in their day.
 
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Gotham Gator said:
I saw it and was very impressed. The kids were really excited, and it made a big difference in their day.
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We've gone up on our roof (its unfinished, so we're really not supposed to be up there) a few times for the 7pm clap. This was the first time we saw someone on the roof next to us, and it was a family with two small boys. They were so excited and that was almost as great to see as the Thunderbirds and Blue Angels themselves.
 
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Gotham Gator said:
People don't recover from HIV or herpes. They do recover from Covid-19.

Look, I understand this is a tough situation, and I don't begrudge anyone's concerns. But locking down society is not a long term solution, and there is a lot of good news out there that suggests we have turned the corner and can start looking to take the first steps.
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We don’t know that yet, that one can “recover” from Covid - scientists have found the virus in the nervous system. Our tests are not 100% accurate and antibodies only indicate exposure, not recovery or immunity. You’re dancing around your premise of “what this means” regarding the antibodies with now quantifying it as only attributable to recovered patients. The tests NYS are doing are for the presence of antibodies- not if somebody is actively infected/asymptomatic versus negative - all they’re trying to figure out is extent of exposure.

A- nobody is talking about locking down society long term. But society is changing, and holding on to how things were done in the past and not modifying activities to address new conditions is asinine. Society isn’t ready to open back up. Mass transit hasn’t figure out how to safely move 5million people on the subway each day. Companies have to rethink their office spaces because the old way was having just enough space to cram people in their desks. DOB occupancy permits for restaurants were done for egress requirements, not for social distancing - how does a restaurant that needs to seat 50 now function seating 20. How long can workers function at desks wearing a mask while also taking calls - 8 hours is a long time to wear it day in and day out. None of this stuff has been figured out.

B- you keep referring to good news indicators. But your frame of reference is wrong. It’s all still bad news, just at a slower rate. FredMertz FredMertz made that abundantly clear. NYS still has 337 people dying/day. That’s down from the near 800 numbers, but it’s still over 2k/week. The numbers are down because of the lockdowns and social distancing - if people begin congregating in close environments again, infections will increase and the death rate will too. Opening too soon will just create a second lockdown that lasts longer.
 
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Gotham Gator said:
People who have recovered from the virus have effective antibodies that confer resistance. Otherwise they would not have recovered from the virus.

No amount of CYA statements from WHO or media touting rare anecdotal cases in order to get clicks changes that. Nor do either of those suggest this virus somehow behaves differently that every disease in the history of humanity.

Ask any medical professional, and he/she will tell you that recovering from this virus confers immunity. And yes, these people are willing to bet their lives on it and are doing so. We don’t know for how long - whether it’s like chicken pox (forever for nearly everyone) or flu (shorter). Much of the difference is due to how much the virus mutates - more rapid mutation leads to shorter immunity. The early reports are that this virus does not mutate much, which is good for immunity (but bad for those hoping it mutates into something more benign).

We can’t keep living like this indefinitely. It’s bankrupting good and decent people, leading to mental health problems, leading people to skip important medical care, and threatening the food supply - among many many other bad things.
Click to expand...

It is certainly possible that you are right. But we just don't know any of this as being 100% confirmed yet. Is it possible? Yes. It is probable? Probably yes. But maybe not.

As for the social distancing, I don't think we'll be social distancing for 18 more months. But I think if we do this for another month, we can slowly start to reopen things after that. There are no good options here, but the one that keeps the most people alive is to have the majority of us work from home and stay inside for another month. Then we can reevaluate, and the hope is that our numbers drop down to (nearly) zero and we can safely reopen.
 
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ProPublica article so not one in it for the clicks. Written by an investigative journalist who focuses on healthcare for a living and has already written multiple articles on Covid, asympomatic carriers, and testing. Wrote extensively about Ebola and sars - this is her jam. Has direct contacts to scientists all over the country. Worth reading - but the TLDR is that the antibody tests are just showing who’s had it, NYC is nowhere near herd immunity levels, and Covid is 5x deadlier than the flu so it’s not business as usual if a potential ~450,000 Covid deaths take place over a year without social distancing and lockdowns.

apple.news

What Antibody Studies Can Tell You — and More Importantly, What They Can’t — ProPublica

Coronavirus antibody studies and what they allegedly show have triggered fierce debates, further confusing public understanding. ProPublica’s health reporter Caroline Chen is here to offer some clarity around these crucial surveys.
apple.news apple.news
 
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