COVID-19 - Leagues Suspended

mgarbowski said:
www.skysports.com

Ajax denied title as Dutch Eredivisie season declared void, European places decided, no relegation

Ajax CEO Edwin van der Sar: There are more important things than football
www.skysports.com www.skysports.com

Dutch Eredivisie season voided with no winner. They had a tie on points for the top spot and decided not to award it in a shortened season based on Goal Differential. Promotion and relegation also suspended for the year.
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so it begins....im still surprised Germany is gonna try and go ahead with games in a couple of weeks.
 
Poland will play starting May 29th

Lots of serious scientists believe the NYC data is flawed.
 
Kjbert said:
Poland will play starting May 29th

Lots of serious scientists believe the NYC data is flawed.
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Flawed too high or too low. The reported numbers are so high compared to anywhere else in the country and even the world I infer you mean too high. Any pointers to those scientists?

www.nytimes.com

The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
One data point we can be fairly confident of is excess deaths. People are dead or not. A stray death here or there might go unnoticed, but over the entire population we track deaths fairly well and consistently. Deaths are not subject to category error. Was it Covid related? Does not matter. Was Covid the primary cause? Doesn't matter. Do we have good testing, or enough testing? Doesn't matter. Dead or not dead. Those are the categories. March 11 to April 22, 2020 NYC saw 19.2k more deaths than normal. We only reported 15.4k virus deaths in the same period. That does not prove we under-reported NY virus deaths. The others could be due to various factors, including people unable to get medical care for other maladies, getting fewer social services, or just more heart attacks and strokes because of loneliness, stress, etc. Meanwhile we are seeing fewer traffic and crime related deaths. Overall, I have trouble believing that NY's virus numbers are over-stating the problem given the number of raw excess deaths during this period.
 
mgarbowski said:
Flawed too high or too low. The reported numbers are so high compared to anywhere else in the country and even the world I infer you mean too high. Any pointers to those scientists?

www.nytimes.com

The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
One data point we can be fairly confident of is excess deaths. People are dead or not. A stray death here or there might go unnoticed, but over the entire population we track deaths fairly well and consistently. Deaths are not subject to category error. Was it Covid related? Does not matter. Was Covid the primary cause? Doesn't matter. Do we have good testing, or enough testing? Doesn't matter. Dead or not dead. Those are the categories. March 11 to April 22, 2020 NYC saw 19.2k more deaths than normal. We only reported 15.4k virus deaths in the same period. That does not prove we under-reported NY virus deaths. The others could be due to various factors, including people unable to get medical care for other maladies, getting fewer social services, or just more heart attacks and strokes because of loneliness, stress, etc. Meanwhile we are seeing fewer traffic and crime related deaths. Overall, I have trouble believing that NY's virus numbers are over-stating the problem given the number of raw excess deaths during this period.
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Yeah, if anything, I find numbers from the rest of the world a bit surprising - in a low way.
 
Ulrich said:
Yeah, if anything, I find numbers from the rest of the world a bit surprising - in a low way.
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I think NY is actually worse than anywhere else; certainly in the US and pretty much the world. I understand you disagree, and since neither knows, I don't find it worth arguing about. But I'm bringing it up anyway to say if I'm right, the mystery is why. The subway hypothesis has come under attack. I think it is valid, but nowhere near the whole story. We closed late, but that does not seem able to explain it all, and we're past the point where that effect should be diminished more. Density, international travel, etc. yes, these are all in NY, but we're not the absolute world leader in all of those categories (including time of closure and mass transit use) and I'm not sure we even lead (or lag the most) in any of them. Further, we never ran short of ventilators, and almost everyone who went on a ventilator died anyway. I'm not sure about ICU beds, but nobody seems to think that's a primary reason we have such a high death rate, and our death rate was already terrible before we hit the peak where any shortage would have come into play. I focus on death rate because I'm convinced it's the best of the imperfect data we have.

I expect you point to these anomalies as the reason for why you think NY is not an outlier and we only seem to be. That's a fair opinion. Again, we don't know. Either way there's a mystery we'll have to wait for.
 
mgarbowski said:
I think NY is actually worse than anywhere else; certainly in the US and pretty much the world. I understand you disagree, and since neither knows, I don't find it worth arguing about. But I'm bringing it up anyway to say if I'm right, the mystery is why. The subway hypothesis has come under attack. I think it is valid, but nowhere near the whole story. We closed late, but that does not seem able to explain it all, and we're past the point where that effect should be diminished more. Density, international travel, etc. yes, these are all in NY, but we're not the absolute world leader in all of those categories (including time of closure and mass transit use) and I'm not sure we even lead (or lag the most) in any of them. Further, we never ran short of ventilators, and almost everyone who went on a ventilator died anyway. I'm not sure about ICU beds, but nobody seems to think that's a primary reason we have such a high death rate, and our death rate was already terrible before we hit the peak where any shortage would have come into play. I focus on death rate because I'm convinced it's the best of the imperfect data we have.

I expect you point to these anomalies as the reason for why you think NY is not an outlier and we only seem to be. That's a fair opinion. Again, we don't know. Either way there's a mystery we'll have to wait for.
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I’ll write a lengthier response later, because I agree with a lot of what you’re saying, but not all, however I’d put serious money on Wuhan making NYC look like a blip on the radar. The images of mass graves and mass cremation urns being delivered to multiple locations is albeit circumstantial evidence, because China is downright lying, but evidence none the less, that Wuhan suffered a massive death event that was skewed from the norm.

Regardless, it’ll take (a lot of) time for researchers and scholars and investigators to fully understand the true levels experienced around the world.
 
Ulrich said:
I’ll write a lengthier response later, because I agree with a lot of what you’re saying, but not all, however I’d put serious money on Wuhan making NYC look like a blip on the radar.
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Feel welcome but not required to do so. Preemptively, I personally don't even put China on the chart when comparing different jurisdictions. I don't believe their numbers and they committed numerous serious human right violations to fight it, so even if they succeeded, it's useless information unless you think other places should follow their lead.
 
mgarbowski said:
Feel welcome but not required to do so. Preemptively, I personally don't even put China on the chart when comparing different jurisdictions. I don't believe their numbers and they committed numerous serious human right violations to fight it, so even if they succeeded, it's useless information unless you think other places should follow their lead.
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What's interesting is what the numbers start to show when Europe is looked at as the European Union (with the UK included) compared to the US:

Location​
Population​
Confirmed Cases​
Confirmed Deaths​
USA
329,566,919​
933,050​
53,625​
NYC
8,398,748​
282,143​
17,126​
EU
324,176,690​
884,747​
98,065​
Spain
46,771,940​
223,759​
22,902​
Italy
60,488,373​
195,351​
26,384​
France
65,241,316​
159,952​
22,614​
Germany
83,832,481​
156,126​
5,846​
UK
67,842,580​
149,559​
20,319​


So while the the US and Big 5 EU countries (that have geographic adjacency) have similar populations, and relatively similar confirmed cases (less than 10% differential), the EU deaths are just shy of twice that of the US. Granted, a good chunk of the US is weeks behind the curve, whereas those EU countries all probably were infected at the same time, so the US numbers will undoubtably go up faster to close the gap (we're already seeing that with the WH models getting blown up months ahead of "schedule").

The outlier is of course NYC, as you stated, which has a smaller population than the individual EU countries, but a more massive death rate per population (although it would be interesting to break out each EU country's largest city for comparison - how's London doing, or Rome, or Madrid, or Paris?). And to that, it probably is a factor that NYC is a major travel destination & intermediate travel link from Europe, plus reports/studies are now showing Covid-19 was in the country in early January (if not earlier), and NYC wasn't aware of it. Add to that, the subways (like you mentioned), the massive reliance on taxis/Uber/Lyft (which combines multiple vectors throughout the day - this is probably understated in the mass discussion of the pundits since two extra months of not knowing is a breeding ground for touching seatbelts, handles, etc), and an insane number of concerts/sporting events/conferences, and the city was ripe for transmission.

Beyond that, I dunno...... so maybe I was wrong that their numbers are too low, because their combination to even the density throws them way ahead (for now - those red state governors are making a case to ultimately take the lead).
 
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The scientists think that Cuomo’s study overestimates the folks that have antibodies/have already had it
 
Median Age
Germany 47.1
Italy 45.5
Spain 42.7
France 41.4
UK 40.5
-----
USA 38.1
NYC 36.9

I'm thinking thes
 
Keep in mind that dividing the number of deaths by the confirmed case rate is a very unreliable way to calculate the death rate from the virus. This is because testing varies so greatly from place to place.

The number of confirmed cases might be one-tenth the actual number in one place, one-twentieth in another, and one-sixth in a third. That’s going to radically change the results of a CFR calculated from confirmed cases.

Sure, there are other differences, such as age of the population, quality of the medical system, and accuracy in reporting deaths. But the extent of testing is going to dwarf all of those on impact.
 
413Blue said:
Median Age
Germany 47.1
Italy 45.5
Spain 42.7
France 41.4
UK 40.5
-----
USA 38.1
NYC 36.9

I'm thinking thes
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That median age is really weird, especially because the difference in medical care can’t be so big that what the US health care system is providing is lacking.

There’s been a lot of talk about obesity, diabetes, and hypertension being main conditions that have been exasperated by Covid. Wonder if those conditions trend at an earlier age in the US because of our societal choices of diet (fried/fatty/processed foods) and sedentary lifestyle (mass use of car driving instead of public transit in majority of America)?

NYC is still high, even with mass transit and a higher degree of daily walking, so perhaps at least here it’s a function of density/subway simply saturating the population in the attempt to find those most likely to succumb; and diet (vis-à-vis diabetes) it a real issue for outer-lying areas of the city where access to healthy/non-processed foods is harder to come by.

That’s not to say that healthy people haven’t also succumbed, but I’m pretty sure the statistics show they’re skewed to the minority of the tally. And even healthy people (those not with the above three condition) can have underlying/unknown conditions - like the athletes with heart valve problems, or typically controllable asthma, etc, that could play a role of being affected by Covid. New symptoms for this group are blood clots (I haven’t read if clots are also affecting older patients) that lead to strokes. And then there’s also also the group’s being affected by Covid attacking the nervous system (which in itself is a difficult feat to achieve with the body’s own firewalls).

It’s all so strange how a pulmonary virus has been able to attack so many different areas & organs & body functions. It’s almost as if the virus doesn’t deliver the death blow, but rather it’s an enabler to jumpstart other dormant conditions.

And bringing it full circle, it’s still strange how the US average age is so much lower than the EU.
 
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