COVID-19 - Leagues Suspended

There’s never been a virus where people infected do not come out with some resistance, even if it’s imperfect. And there is no evidence of anyone being infected twice yet with this virus. It’s a completely reasonable presumption, especially for purposes of discussion.

There are almost no peer reviewed scientific studies that establish anything yet because the situation is so new and fluid, and making that the standard for what we can say would mean we all have to shut up altogether. That’s a ridiculous standard.

Most fundamentally, you don’t get to tell us what we can and cannot say.
Flu resistance is usually believed to be in the ballpark of 6-9 months, which is usually just long enough to get people to the next flu season with new strains. If COVID resistance is 6 months, everyone who's had it already is right back where they started at precisely the same time that the 2020 flu season starts. And that's assuming it doesn't evolve over the summer. Social distancing and other measures won't end (or at least they won't stop being the smartest course of action) until there is a vaccine.
 
People who have recovered from the virus have effective antibodies that confer resistance. Otherwise they would not have recovered from the virus.

No amount of CYA statements from WHO or media touting rare anecdotal cases in order to get clicks changes that. Nor do either of those suggest this virus somehow behaves differently that every disease in the history of humanity.

Ask any medical professional, and he/she will tell you that recovering from this virus confers immunity. And yes, these people are willing to bet their lives on it and are doing so. We don’t know for how long - whether it’s like chicken pox (forever for nearly everyone) or flu (shorter). Much of the difference is due to how much the virus mutates - more rapid mutation leads to shorter immunity. The early reports are that this virus does not mutate much, which is good for immunity (but bad for those hoping it mutates into something more benign).

We can’t keep living like this indefinitely. It’s bankrupting good and decent people, leading to mental health problems, leading people to skip important medical care, and threatening the food supply - among many many other bad things.
 
Flu resistance is usually believed to be in the ballpark of 6-9 months, which is usually just long enough to get people to the next flu season with new strains. If COVID resistance is 6 months, everyone who's had it already is right back where they started at precisely the same time that the 2020 flu season starts. And that's assuming it doesn't evolve over the summer. Social distancing and other measures won't end (or at least they won't stop being the smartest course of action) until there is a vaccine.
Flu immunity actually has a long fade. If you get the flu one year, then you likely have some limited immunity that can keep the disease from being too bad if you contract it for a couple years after that. It’s imperfect, so you should always get the flu shot too (which itself is imperfect).

Ultimately, this is one possible outcome for COVID. It could be a seasonal disease for which people should get a vaccine each fall. That will help slow the spread and keep cases from being too bad, but it won’t be perfect. It might be that instead of the 40,000 deaths we get every year from flu, we will start getting 80,000 deaths from flu + COVID.

My father died of the flu 2 years ago, so I understand well the tragedy involved. We will want to give resources to top medical professionals to develop the best vaccines and treatments to keep the numbers as low as possible. But ultimately, we will need to continue on with life.
 
I amended my previous post to say there's no evidence of anyone getting sick twice. It had said no evidence of getting infected twice. I am aware of the SK results where people recovered and later tested positive and my wording was poor. I am not aware of any follow up to report if any of them got sick or to screen for false positives.
 
People who have recovered from the virus have effective antibodies that confer resistance. Otherwise they would not have recovered from the virus.

No amount of CYA statements from WHO or media touting rare anecdotal cases in order to get clicks changes that. Nor do either of those suggest this virus somehow behaves differently that every disease in the history of humanity.
Jeez, that’s a big Fcking hill to die on.

The presence of antibodies is a sign that infection has occurred but it does not guarantee immunity. Antibodies are proteins that fight infection; that’s it.

Here are two different viruses that don’t work as you’re arguing:

Herpes: anybody that becomes infected with herpes gets antibodies, and they may get to a point where they suppress the virus, but the virus is always there dormant in the nervous system cells (just like scientists have discovered with some Covid-19 patients, but you discount as anecdotal) and can come back, even with antibodies present. This isn’t even debatable.

HIV patients all have antibodies in their system. To date, nobody has immunity. Some, with the help of potent antiviral drugs have been able to reduce the virus count to non-traceable test amounts, but those also swell back up if treatment is stopped. Well, one person supposedly has been cured, but again, you don’t like random anecdotal click info.

If science proves antibodies are our godsend savior, then trumpet it as loudly as you want, but these all encompassing statements are misleading, just like your initial hot take that Covid-19 wouldn’t be as bad as the flu. That aged really well.

I’ll counter your recent take on this shutdown is “bankrupting a lot of good & decent people”....... this virus is KILLING a log of good & decent people. A city in Japan, Hokkaido, got out in front of their initial Covid infections and shut the spread down drastically - they then lifted the rules and are now experiencing a quick return - they’re now being touted as what can happen when rules are lifted too soon. And NYC’s economy makes it an open door to neighboring states for daily travel and new vectors. But yes, the economy......
 
I amended my previous post to say there's no evidence of anyone getting sick twice. It had said no evidence of getting infected twice. I am aware of the SK results where people recovered and later tested positive and my wording was poor. I am not aware of any follow up to report if any of them got sick or to screen for false positives.
Though, it isn't quite clear if people are actually getting infected twice. There are thoughts that this is either an issue with the testing (as I had posted before from a friend of mine who got his PhD studying infectious diseases), or that its actually just a relapse, and not necessarily a reinfection.

 
Jeez, that’s a big Fcking hill to die on.

The presence of antibodies is a sign that infection has occurred but it does not guarantee immunity. Antibodies are proteins that fight infection; that’s it.

Here are two different viruses that don’t work as you’re arguing:

Herpes: anybody that becomes infected with herpes gets antibodies, and they may get to a point where they suppress the virus, but the virus is always there dormant in the nervous system cells (just like scientists have discovered with some Covid-19 patients, but you discount as anecdotal) and can come back, even with antibodies present. This isn’t even debatable.

HIV patients all have antibodies in their system. To date, nobody has immunity. Some, with the help of potent antiviral drugs have been able to reduce the virus count to non-traceable test amounts, but those also swell back up if treatment is stopped. Well, one person supposedly has been cured, but again, you don’t like random anecdotal click info.

If science proves antibodies are our godsend savior, then trumpet it as loudly as you want, but these all encompassing statements are misleading, just like your initial hot take that Covid-19 wouldn’t be as bad as the flu. That aged really well.

I’ll counter your recent take on this shutdown is “bankrupting a lot of good & decent people”....... this virus is KILLING a log of good & decent people. A city in Japan, Hokkaido, got out in front of their initial Covid infections and shut the spread down drastically - they then lifted the rules and are now experiencing a quick return - they’re now being touted as what can happen when rules are lifted too soon. And NYC’s economy makes it an open door to neighboring states for daily travel and new vectors. But yes, the economy......
People don't recover from HIV or herpes. They do recover from Covid-19.

Look, I understand this is a tough situation, and I don't begrudge anyone's concerns. But locking down society is not a long term solution, and there is a lot of good news out there that suggests we have turned the corner and can start looking to take the first steps.
 
Anyone able to see the flyover today? Luckily with where we are, we had a great view of them coming down the river.

(Also, I understand that there's a lot of discussion on whether or not this was good money spent. I am not looking to get into that at all, just looking to comment on how cool it was to see. Those two should definitely be mutually exclusive.)
 
Anyone able to see the flyover today? Luckily with where we are, we had a great view of them coming down the river.

(Also, I understand that there's a lot of discussion on whether or not this was good money spent. I am not looking to get into that at all, just looking to comment on how cool it was to see. Those two should definitely be mutually exclusive.)
I saw it and was very impressed. The kids were really excited, and it made a big difference in their day.
 
I saw it and was very impressed. The kids were really excited, and it made a big difference in their day.
We've gone up on our roof (its unfinished, so we're really not supposed to be up there) a few times for the 7pm clap. This was the first time we saw someone on the roof next to us, and it was a family with two small boys. They were so excited and that was almost as great to see as the Thunderbirds and Blue Angels themselves.
 
People who have recovered from the virus have effective antibodies that confer resistance. Otherwise they would not have recovered from the virus.

No amount of CYA statements from WHO or media touting rare anecdotal cases in order to get clicks changes that. Nor do either of those suggest this virus somehow behaves differently that every disease in the history of humanity.

Ask any medical professional, and he/she will tell you that recovering from this virus confers immunity. And yes, these people are willing to bet their lives on it and are doing so. We don’t know for how long - whether it’s like chicken pox (forever for nearly everyone) or flu (shorter). Much of the difference is due to how much the virus mutates - more rapid mutation leads to shorter immunity. The early reports are that this virus does not mutate much, which is good for immunity (but bad for those hoping it mutates into something more benign).

We can’t keep living like this indefinitely. It’s bankrupting good and decent people, leading to mental health problems, leading people to skip important medical care, and threatening the food supply - among many many other bad things.

It is certainly possible that you are right. But we just don't know any of this as being 100% confirmed yet. Is it possible? Yes. It is probable? Probably yes. But maybe not.

As for the social distancing, I don't think we'll be social distancing for 18 more months. But I think if we do this for another month, we can slowly start to reopen things after that. There are no good options here, but the one that keeps the most people alive is to have the majority of us work from home and stay inside for another month. Then we can reevaluate, and the hope is that our numbers drop down to (nearly) zero and we can safely reopen.
 
ProPublica article so not one in it for the clicks. Written by an investigative journalist who focuses on healthcare for a living and has already written multiple articles on Covid, asympomatic carriers, and testing. Wrote extensively about Ebola and sars - this is her jam. Has direct contacts to scientists all over the country. Worth reading - but the TLDR is that the antibody tests are just showing who’s had it, NYC is nowhere near herd immunity levels, and Covid is 5x deadlier than the flu so it’s not business as usual if a potential ~450,000 Covid deaths take place over a year without social distancing and lockdowns.

 
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