2016 Attendance Thread
- Thread starter Gotham Gator
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I think the LA game will be the first in another late season bump. The games are getting more important, the casuals are increasingly aware of the season going on, plus people tend to have fewer vacations and family events and such once school starts, so they will be home and free on weekends to get out to the game.
But those concerns of the second half of your sentence cannot have affected attendance much this year as the team has had only 3 home games in the last two months. The first 9 home games were during the school year.
Yes but between the schedule congestion and bad string of weather, it was not very good. The main factor though is that I think it takes time for the very casual fans to get into the season. They see a game on tv, or their friends psting about it on Twitter/FB and say "oh the season started, I gotta get out to a couple games" and they have that in their mind, but don't really focus on it until later in the season they finally get out to those games. That is my very unscientific explanation for last year's uptick in attendance (plus Pirlo arrival bump), plus the trend I have seen with many teams in the league over the years who surge the last several games.
Look at New England, without any real marketing uptick, they tend to draw well above their season average the last few games. I think it just takes time to reintroduce the general fanbase the the club each season. Of course, the games seeming more important helps.
I agree the schedule hurt attendance. I'm just saying the theory that people are preoccupied in the summer can't be a big factor as we had so few summer home games. In fact I think the opposite might have happened, that casual fans might have skipped some early season games thinking "it will be easier to take the kids when school is out" and then there were almost no games when the school was out.
Updated for LA and DC.
We are currently 4th in the league behind Seattle, Orlando and Toronto (barely).
We continue to be a little bit down from last year - currently about 6%. We have three home games left, one weeknight, one Saturday night and the season finale on a Sunday. My guess is that we end up with an average a hair over 27,000 - just behind Toronto for 4th place and down about 6.6% from last season.
We are currently 4th in the league behind Seattle, Orlando and Toronto (barely).
We continue to be a little bit down from last year - currently about 6%. We have three home games left, one weeknight, one Saturday night and the season finale on a Sunday. My guess is that we end up with an average a hair over 27,000 - just behind Toronto for 4th place and down about 6.6% from last season.
Not too shabby for a team still searching for a home.
I'm curious if our participation in matches beefs up attendance for our road matches. Do other teams get a boost playing us, the same way if the Yankees were in town for a baseball game?
I wonder if our numbers are down because of such a front loaded schedule when the weather was crappy? There were also months with 3 games in a row- that's a lot of non-stop commitments on the family-front.
Anyone know what the current tally is on season tickets? I wonder how our percentages of season ticket holders vs. others ratio compares to other teams (MLS and otherwise). It looks to be around 75% -ish if we are at 20k, which I am sure is very high in comparison, but not unexpected. The popular exposure remains weak, which means we are missing the casuals and families who simply do not know that we exist, or have not been enticed into trying out the experience. I would love for that to change. I run into folks all the time who are sports fans, soccer fans, have kids who play soccer, etc., who were not even aware that a professional team now plays in Yankee Stadium. And the press coverage has been dim. For example, that exhilarating win last week deserved a column in the Post, but instead was just a line in the Sports Shorts. Maybe continued team marketing and word of mouth will help. A new stadium certainly will generate more exposure and interest. And a deep playoff run or MLS Cup could certainly get us some better coverage.
I don't think the numbers are down at all if you think about it. Last year was our first season, so that's a factor of course. But if you look at the numbers, this year we have 381,747 with three games left to go. Last year with three left we had 405,902. However, if you discount the two outliers from last year, opening day and NJRB (43,000 and 48,000) down to our two highest numbers this year (NJRB and LAG, 37,000 and 35,000) the numbers are almost the same, and that's not even counting we had a second NJRB game at home which had 33,000, our next largest crowd. Basically I'm saying our attendance this year is almost exactly the same as last year.
I can't recall seeing any STH numbers or milestones announced this year, which tells me we have not yet exceeded last year's numbers.
I don't think the numbers are down at all if you think about it. Last year was our first season, so that's a factor of course. But if you look at the numbers, this year we have 381,747 with three games left to go. Last year with three left we had 405,902. However, if you discount the two outliers from last year, opening day and NJRB (43,000 and 48,000) down to our two highest numbers this year (NJRB and LAG, 37,000 and 35,000) the numbers are almost the same, and that's not even counting we had a second NJRB game at home which had 33,000, our next largest crowd. Basically I'm saying our attendance this year is almost exactly the same as last year.
That's a pretty blatant rationalization and simply isn't true. Just about every measurement is slightly down (w/o high/low, median, avg).
Look at all those games from 2015 in the 25k-30k range. The second half of the season in 2015, all but one game was above 25k.
This year, any "normal" game attendance has been in the 20k-25k range this year.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with our attendance. We draw exceptionally well, especially considering we are in a baseball stadium. There is an epidemic (insecurity?) on this forum that is causing people to exaggerate our attendence and stadium capacity needs. The stadium thread is full of people calling for a 35k season stadium - a number we've hit just FOUR times. It's going to be around 25k sans extenuating circumstances, and that's plenty.
You don't think the fanbase will grow in the next 5-10 (20?!!) years till we get our stadium? Or in the 20 odd years after we get it, till it's obsolete?
Expandability is a separate question. And what level of growth are you talking? We are down 6% this year, and while I obviously don't think that will be a trend, we are normalizing at ~27k average and ~25k median. Let's say that's our base. Let's look at three scenarios and assume the median is an upper limit on capacity (50%+ sellout rate desired):
1. 0% growth rate - not outside the realm of possibilities. Would leave my 25k stadium size prediction intact.
2. 2% growth rate - nice and stable growth. In five years, the median would be 27,600. In 10 years, 30,500. In 15 years, 33,600. If the stadium takes 5 years to build from the day it's announced, that means maybe a 30k seater maximum if announced within the next five years.
3. 4% growth rate - among the league leaders in growth. The 5/10/15 year medians would be 30,400/37,000/45,000. Those seem extremely optimistic, but I suppose plausible.
So I'll conservatively adjust my 25k prediction to closer to 30k, but that's assuming it isn't announced for about another 5 years and we do see some growth in attendance next year.
I think my crude numbers show where people are getting their optimism from, but I still think it's runaway optimism to assume the best case scenario.
There are a lot of expat soccer fans that won't go to YS because it's YS. A proper venue will definitely see a sizable bump right out of the gate. And don't forget that the league will not be staying at 3 DPs forever - add 2-3 DPs over the next 5 years, and based on CFG's spending power we will likely see some more big names that will draw in more fans. And lastly, as I've said many times on this thread, no developer in NYC builds for today, they build for the future since it's such a horrible process to get anything done and you do it right the first time - NYCFC will want room to grow since this may be their only shot at it.
If MLS is expected to remain a very middling soccer league perpetually, then I think we have found our base and should be looking at a 25-30k stadium.
If that's the case, you can cancel my season tickets because I am on board to see MLS and NYCFC rise on the global ranks. The league is on a positive trajectory, and I am hopeful that over the next decade we will continue to grow, surpassing the quality of Liga MX and eventually catching up with second tier Euro leagues like France and second division England/Germany. When we are at that level, we will most certainly have more big name elite players in and closer to their primes, drawing much larger crowds, making a 25k stadium a handicap.
I know many here will scoff at the idea of MLS catching the bigger league's, but I think the floodgates are going to start opening over the next decade, closing the wage gap. Couple that with improving development infrastructure (academy's, NCAA reform etc) and I don't think it's ludicrous to expect MLS to be a touch below the big four in 2026!
If that's the case, you can cancel my season tickets because I am on board to see MLS and NYCFC rise on the global ranks. The league is on a positive trajectory, and I am hopeful that over the next decade we will continue to grow, surpassing the quality of Liga MX and eventually catching up with second tier Euro leagues like France and second division England/Germany. When we are at that level, we will most certainly have more big name elite players in and closer to their primes, drawing much larger crowds, making a 25k stadium a handicap.
I know many here will scoff at the idea of MLS catching the bigger league's, but I think the floodgates are going to start opening over the next decade, closing the wage gap. Couple that with improving development infrastructure (academy's, NCAA reform etc) and I don't think it's ludicrous to expect MLS to be a touch below the big four in 2026!
I know Seattle did. They opened up some upper levels when they played us and a few other teams.
Huge point. I'd say you add MINIMUM 5K STH's from the population that simply won't watch soccer in a baseball stadium once we get SSS.
A couple of things. First, the average per game attendance for the league has grown 3.62% over the past ten seasons, so a 4% growth rate would not put us "among the league leaders." Second, the baseline for measurement should not be be 25,000, which is below both our mean and median for this season.
Third, and most important, people calling for a bigger stadium are not doing so because they think we can fill up a 35,000 seat stadium from day one. It is because they understand you don't need a stadium that is 100% full to have a great atmosphere. You can get that with 80-85% full and leave room to grow. Even conservatively estimating 5 years to a new stadium, a baseline of 26,200 (between the mean and median for this year), and a growth rate of 3.5% (a little below the 10 year average), you end up with average attendance in the opening year of over 31,100 and that is 85% of 36,600.
The overall growth rate has more to do with adding Seattle, Orlando, NYC, and Toronto and dropping Chivas. Each team does not grow that much year-over-year. Anything positive is good for an existing team.
I rounded. And if we look at these discussions last year, everyone was expecting growth this year too, yet we fell 6%. It may take another year or two to completely normalize, we could drop a little bit again next year (only one NYRB and no LAG) to 25,000k median or even lower.
Literally zero MLS teams have built SSS's with target capacities of 80-85%. In fact, they are almost always surprisingly small and nearing 100% sellout rates.
Empty seats cost money to build and generate zero revenue. I'm sure the architects have established models for stadium economics and efficiencies that I won't pretend to know or understand, but all it takes is a quick glance around the league to know that sellouts = good and empty seats = bad, even at the expense of the 35k-40k attended tent-pole games.
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