2019 By The Numbers: There's A City In My Mind, Come Along
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
My only worry is how poorly we've played in Colorado, who has turned things around a bit in the last month or so. But I think getting Sands in the lineup asap sets us up for a strong second half.
The whole song thing started before the 1/4 mark of the season and the start of the thread. I was listening to Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads and the "city in my mind" lyric caught my attention. Then I noticed the song worked on other levels because the music is upbeat and positive while the lyrics are alternatingly positive and negative, so it seemed a decent metaphor for a team at the crossroads. It's sometimes hard to come up with one each week (and don't expect it to continue past this year, plus sometimes I used movie lines). I usually get some help from google but only to help me recall a song from my past that I couldn't bring to mind on my own. This week was surprisingly hard. I figured I'd have several songs about indecision, or mixed signals to choose from, but there was very little, many obscure and others too directly overtly romantic stuff. I probably heard the KP song at some point, but I don't really remember, and just thought it apt.
Also when my girls were in their Radio Disney/Girlz Rock phase I definitely downloaded some of it. A lot is kind of treacly and sappy. But there's also a decent strain of power pop in it and I'm always up for new power pop.
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I think we're best in the East and League #2 when fully healthy. Pretty much every math model agrees: ASA, 538, Playoff Status, all have us with the best chance to win the East and second best to win MLS cup. There's even some guy, an Orlando fan, who built his own algorithm and posts the results every week in the MLS Power Ranking comments. He has NYC at #2 and has for some weeks. It's a little odd to see the math models all agree yet almost none of the analysts, not just on the MLS website but generally, all have much substantial doubts and predict, Philly, Atlanta, RB, even Toronto. Just about anyone but us.
Ain't No Mountain
The metaphors were in alignment as NYCFC went to Colorado, almost immediately went down a goal, then spent about 75 minutes fighting an uphill battle to reach higher and attain peak goals, or something like that. In the end 3 points is 3 points no matter the altitude.
I think it is time to start thinking about playoff seeding.
A simple extrapolation says the 1st seed in the East will probably be in the 55-60 range. I figure somebody among Philadelphia, Atlanta and NYC will go on a run and get 60 points. Maybe even the Red Bulls or DC has a super hot streak. Sneaking a peak at the West tells us that, LAFC aside, the next best of the West (among the Galaxy, Seattle, Minnesota and San Jose), will probably be very close to that 60-point mark in one direction or another. So if NYC can reach 60 points it probably has a very strong chance of winning the East, and should it reach the finals, will be possibly, maybe ahead of any team coming out of that conference if they’re not wearing black and gold. So how do you get to 60 points?
It’s not on the table specifically, but 9-5-1 does it exactly with 28 points and 1.87 PPG. That seems very attainable given NYC’s current form, but let’s also look at the schedule, starting with 4 daunting road games:
RSL 2
ATL 1
DAL 1
PHI 2
The number after each team is their number of Home losses to date. Sure, NYC is a good Away team, but for comparison, here is the number of Home losses (excluding the one we gave them) for each of the teams NYC has beaten at their stadium:
DC 1
MTL 3
LAG 3
COL 5
Let’s be reasonably conservative, and figure NYC gets 4 points in those 4 difficult Away games just as a reference. Then they need 24 points in the other 11, of which 8 are at Home and 3 are Away. So, win all 8 Home games. Or 7 Home and 1 of the Away; or 7 at Home and draw 3 of the remaining 4. You can play around with it a lot, but if you’re interested in this sort of thing I think there are few enough games for you to start looking at the remaining schedule and think about how to build to whatever point total you’re interested in. For me, the other games of concern are (1) New England Away. The Revs have 4 Home losses, but the most recent was in April and NYC has never done well in New England. The most concerning Home games for me are the Red Bulls, San Jose and Atlanta. None of those teams have great Away records this year, but all are tough outs. Beyond them, NYC has a habit of drawing against Toronto at Home, and has only beaten the Revs once since that First Historic Home Opener, in 5 subsequent visits.
I’m not trying to be pessimistic, but just noting that there is not much room for error if NYC is going to have home games beyond the first or second round of the playoffs. Here’s the current state of the East and how we got here:
And the everyone-at-19-games standings:
Finally the year-over-year graphs. 2019 is ahead of 2016, but still lags 2017 and 2018, both of which featured late season slides. The 2018 slump began after 21 games. In fact, if this team does not win the next 2 it will fall further behind the 2018 version, at which point it will have an easy target to overcome. The 2017 version only faltered after 25 games.
Move on up, and keep on wishing
Remember your dream, is your only scheme
So keep on pushing
The metaphors were in alignment as NYCFC went to Colorado, almost immediately went down a goal, then spent about 75 minutes fighting an uphill battle to reach higher and attain peak goals, or something like that. In the end 3 points is 3 points no matter the altitude.
I think it is time to start thinking about playoff seeding.
A simple extrapolation says the 1st seed in the East will probably be in the 55-60 range. I figure somebody among Philadelphia, Atlanta and NYC will go on a run and get 60 points. Maybe even the Red Bulls or DC has a super hot streak. Sneaking a peak at the West tells us that, LAFC aside, the next best of the West (among the Galaxy, Seattle, Minnesota and San Jose), will probably be very close to that 60-point mark in one direction or another. So if NYC can reach 60 points it probably has a very strong chance of winning the East, and should it reach the finals, will be possibly, maybe ahead of any team coming out of that conference if they’re not wearing black and gold. So how do you get to 60 points?
It’s not on the table specifically, but 9-5-1 does it exactly with 28 points and 1.87 PPG. That seems very attainable given NYC’s current form, but let’s also look at the schedule, starting with 4 daunting road games:
RSL 2
ATL 1
DAL 1
PHI 2
The number after each team is their number of Home losses to date. Sure, NYC is a good Away team, but for comparison, here is the number of Home losses (excluding the one we gave them) for each of the teams NYC has beaten at their stadium:
DC 1
MTL 3
LAG 3
COL 5
Let’s be reasonably conservative, and figure NYC gets 4 points in those 4 difficult Away games just as a reference. Then they need 24 points in the other 11, of which 8 are at Home and 3 are Away. So, win all 8 Home games. Or 7 Home and 1 of the Away; or 7 at Home and draw 3 of the remaining 4. You can play around with it a lot, but if you’re interested in this sort of thing I think there are few enough games for you to start looking at the remaining schedule and think about how to build to whatever point total you’re interested in. For me, the other games of concern are (1) New England Away. The Revs have 4 Home losses, but the most recent was in April and NYC has never done well in New England. The most concerning Home games for me are the Red Bulls, San Jose and Atlanta. None of those teams have great Away records this year, but all are tough outs. Beyond them, NYC has a habit of drawing against Toronto at Home, and has only beaten the Revs once since that First Historic Home Opener, in 5 subsequent visits.
I’m not trying to be pessimistic, but just noting that there is not much room for error if NYC is going to have home games beyond the first or second round of the playoffs. Here’s the current state of the East and how we got here:
And the everyone-at-19-games standings:
Finally the year-over-year graphs. 2019 is ahead of 2016, but still lags 2017 and 2018, both of which featured late season slides. The 2018 slump began after 21 games. In fact, if this team does not win the next 2 it will fall further behind the 2018 version, at which point it will have an easy target to overcome. The 2017 version only faltered after 25 games.
Move on up, and keep on wishing
Remember your dream, is your only scheme
So keep on pushing
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No?
DC has 2 Home losses. Exclude the one to us and it is 1.
Montreal and LAG both have 4, and COL has 6, which become 3, 3 and 5 when you exclude the ones to us.
I think the clear underlying factor is that
adam has yet to say anything to doom us yet.
adam has yet to say anything to doom us yet.
D'Oh. I was so careful to get the numbers right I got the text wrong. Fixed.
Decent season going, even after getting robbed of a point at NJRB (still can't let it go). On pace for the best season ever, if they can avoid the late season slump they had last year. Easily in the playoffs.
Should finish #1 or 2 in the conference again.
Someone beat me to the jinx
Weapon of Choice
NYCFC has never had more than 4 players score 5 or more goals in a season. It managed this twice before this year, in 2016 and again in 2018. This year, with 14 games remaining, NYCFC has 4 already (Heber, Moralez, Castellanos and Mitrita), plus a fifth poised to do so once he gets healthy (Shradi). Even Ring has an reasonable chance with 3 to date.
Meanwhile, in the summer transfer window, the team added an additional player, Gerard Mackay-Stevens, who seems very capable of putting up at least 5 given a full season of work (and I suppose has some chance to do it with a good streak in the final 14).
Two years ago in 2017 NYCFC finished with just 3 players at the rather modest 5-goal threshold (Vila, Harrison and Moralez). This did not go unnoticed, and it now seems clear that team management noticed as well, having obtained Castellanos, Heber, Mackay-Stevens, Mitrita and Shradi all since the end of the 2017 season, and the team now has one of the most (if not the single most) balanced and deep attacks in MLS.
And having used this attack to drop 3 goals on a struggling SKC defense, NYCFC again sits with the second best PPG in the league (though only 9th best by points and 4th place in the East conference due to games in hand).
The biggest gap in the East table is between Montreal at 8 and Orlando at 9. The conference is shaping up to have 8 teams vying for 7 playoff spots down the stretch. In addition, with the much smaller gaps between all of the top 8 teams, there will likely be a true competition for every spot on the table at the end, though both 538 and the Playoff Status website both give NYCFC a better than 50% chance to finish first.
With 2 straight wins after a pair of disappointing losses, NYCFC is as good or better than every team in the East after 20 games, and is poised to take the lead once it plays its additional games, as long as it does not suffer another late season slump.
The Revs have managed one of the more impressive in-season turnarounds in MLS. They now sit above the playoff line in 7th Place in the real standings, and hold 6th Place by PPG. The are undefeated at 6-0-4 in the last 10 games after starting the season a dismal 3-8-2.
The toughest part of the Revs season is coming up, with games at Home against LAFC (next) and NYC. Away they still have Seattle, the Red Bulls, NYC, Portland and Atlanta. Their H/A adjusted Opponent’s PPG to date is 1.26 (with no real difference between when they were terrible and the undefeated streak). The upcoming adjusted Opponents’ PPG is 1.53. They do have some quality, impressive wins during the streak including San Jose at Home and the Galaxy Away, but they are facing an upcoming series of tests the likes of which they have not yet faced.
New England also has an impressive record of 6 wins against 0 losses and 2 Ties against the West, but they arguably have 3 of the toughest West games remaining.
On that note, it is worth mentioning that 4 of the 8 top teams in the East still have to play Portland in Portland: Atlanta, DC, the Revs, and Red Bulls.
On the table showing how NYC gets to various levels, we are close to dropping some of the lower possibilities.
Before closing, a word on the NYCFC defense. They have a league 4th best Goals Against per Game of 1.20 based on 24 goals conceded in 20 games. They started the season allowing 11 goals in the first 6 games, then tightened up considerably to allow just 13 in the last 14 games with 5 shutouts.
But there still is some cause for concern, as the more medium-term results are 12 goals allowed and just 1 clean sheet in last 9 games. NYCFC seems to be in that mode where there is at least 1 mistake in each game that is not forgiven by their opponent. In the last 4 games, a review of how they gave up those goals shows that the team defense in the regular run of play remains excellent, while concentration and/or execution in specific moments fail. With 5 goals conceded in the last 4 games, they came off of (1) in the regular run of play, (2) a PK, (3) a free kick, (4) a throw in signalled as a corner, and (5) a corner kick.
Finally, let’s note that DC United, Vancouver and Chicago now have 9 Ties each and NYCFC no longer leads the league in that oddity.
Break, eject, eject, eject
NYCFC has never had more than 4 players score 5 or more goals in a season. It managed this twice before this year, in 2016 and again in 2018. This year, with 14 games remaining, NYCFC has 4 already (Heber, Moralez, Castellanos and Mitrita), plus a fifth poised to do so once he gets healthy (Shradi). Even Ring has an reasonable chance with 3 to date.
Meanwhile, in the summer transfer window, the team added an additional player, Gerard Mackay-Stevens, who seems very capable of putting up at least 5 given a full season of work (and I suppose has some chance to do it with a good streak in the final 14).
Two years ago in 2017 NYCFC finished with just 3 players at the rather modest 5-goal threshold (Vila, Harrison and Moralez). This did not go unnoticed, and it now seems clear that team management noticed as well, having obtained Castellanos, Heber, Mackay-Stevens, Mitrita and Shradi all since the end of the 2017 season, and the team now has one of the most (if not the single most) balanced and deep attacks in MLS.
And having used this attack to drop 3 goals on a struggling SKC defense, NYCFC again sits with the second best PPG in the league (though only 9th best by points and 4th place in the East conference due to games in hand).
The biggest gap in the East table is between Montreal at 8 and Orlando at 9. The conference is shaping up to have 8 teams vying for 7 playoff spots down the stretch. In addition, with the much smaller gaps between all of the top 8 teams, there will likely be a true competition for every spot on the table at the end, though both 538 and the Playoff Status website both give NYCFC a better than 50% chance to finish first.
With 2 straight wins after a pair of disappointing losses, NYCFC is as good or better than every team in the East after 20 games, and is poised to take the lead once it plays its additional games, as long as it does not suffer another late season slump.
The Revs have managed one of the more impressive in-season turnarounds in MLS. They now sit above the playoff line in 7th Place in the real standings, and hold 6th Place by PPG. The are undefeated at 6-0-4 in the last 10 games after starting the season a dismal 3-8-2.
The toughest part of the Revs season is coming up, with games at Home against LAFC (next) and NYC. Away they still have Seattle, the Red Bulls, NYC, Portland and Atlanta. Their H/A adjusted Opponent’s PPG to date is 1.26 (with no real difference between when they were terrible and the undefeated streak). The upcoming adjusted Opponents’ PPG is 1.53. They do have some quality, impressive wins during the streak including San Jose at Home and the Galaxy Away, but they are facing an upcoming series of tests the likes of which they have not yet faced.
New England also has an impressive record of 6 wins against 0 losses and 2 Ties against the West, but they arguably have 3 of the toughest West games remaining.
On that note, it is worth mentioning that 4 of the 8 top teams in the East still have to play Portland in Portland: Atlanta, DC, the Revs, and Red Bulls.
On the table showing how NYC gets to various levels, we are close to dropping some of the lower possibilities.
Before closing, a word on the NYCFC defense. They have a league 4th best Goals Against per Game of 1.20 based on 24 goals conceded in 20 games. They started the season allowing 11 goals in the first 6 games, then tightened up considerably to allow just 13 in the last 14 games with 5 shutouts.
But there still is some cause for concern, as the more medium-term results are 12 goals allowed and just 1 clean sheet in last 9 games. NYCFC seems to be in that mode where there is at least 1 mistake in each game that is not forgiven by their opponent. In the last 4 games, a review of how they gave up those goals shows that the team defense in the regular run of play remains excellent, while concentration and/or execution in specific moments fail. With 5 goals conceded in the last 4 games, they came off of (1) in the regular run of play, (2) a PK, (3) a free kick, (4) a throw in signalled as a corner, and (5) a corner kick.
Finally, let’s note that DC United, Vancouver and Chicago now have 9 Ties each and NYCFC no longer leads the league in that oddity.
Break, eject, eject, eject
Great stuff.
How do people think the East ends up for spots 1 through 7? I think the current PPG is the likely outcome, except I will flop DC and NE. So, it's NYC, PHI, ATL, NE, NJ, DC, TOR.
Our toughest remaining games are probably the ones at Atlanta, Philly, and New England. Our toughest remaining game against the West is at Dallas or RSL (7th & 8th). We've played everyone in the Top 6 in the West except San Jose, who we get at home.
Look at the East contenders: NYC, PHI, NJ, ATL, NE and their games left against LAFC, Seattle and Portland. All but Atlanta play LAFC; all but Philly play Portland; NJ and NE play Seattle. We don't play any of them.
After the way we started, I really never thought we'd not lead the league in ties this season.
How do people think the East ends up for spots 1 through 7? I think the current PPG is the likely outcome, except I will flop DC and NE. So, it's NYC, PHI, ATL, NE, NJ, DC, TOR.
Our toughest remaining games are probably the ones at Atlanta, Philly, and New England. Our toughest remaining game against the West is at Dallas or RSL (7th & 8th). We've played everyone in the Top 6 in the West except San Jose, who we get at home.
Look at the East contenders: NYC, PHI, NJ, ATL, NE and their games left against LAFC, Seattle and Portland. All but Atlanta play LAFC; all but Philly play Portland; NJ and NE play Seattle. We don't play any of them.
After the way we started, I really never thought we'd not lead the league in ties this season.
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