ZYanksRule
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Fully agree. Year after we win is fine. Facing the Red Bulls is fine. Every other game it's stupid.
NYCFC Season Discussion 2025: Party Like It's 2023 (2024 If You're Lucky)
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Fully agree. Year after we win is fine. Facing the Red Bulls is fine. Every other game it's stupid.
Chances of finishing Top 4 took a big hit last night losing at home to Miami.
On Playoff Status it went from a 42% possibility to 15%.
We have 3 games remaining which is now the same as most teams and fewer than Miami and Orlando.
We trail Philly by 7 points and Cincy by 5.
We trail Miami by 2 and they have 2 more games to play.
We are tied with Charlotte on points. They play Montreal and the Union at Home, plus DC Away. We play RB and the Union Away and Seattle at Home. Charlotte also has 1 more win, meaning if we finish tied they have the first tie breaker. The only way for NYC to catch up on wins and still end tied on points is if NYC wins one game and loses 2 while Charlotte draws all 3. We are 2 behind on Goal Differential after the 4 goal deficit to Miami. We effectively need to win more points in the final 3 games to finish ahead but ours are much tougher. Reminder that though RB are in 10th place they are tied for 3rd best Home record with 2.20 PPG. That's a tough game.
And just for fun, Orlando is 2 points behind with an extra game to play. They have Away to Cincy and Toronto, and Home to the Crew and Vancouver. Sixth is at least as likely as Fifth.
On Playoff Status it went from a 42% possibility to 15%.
We have 3 games remaining which is now the same as most teams and fewer than Miami and Orlando.
We trail Philly by 7 points and Cincy by 5.
We trail Miami by 2 and they have 2 more games to play.
We are tied with Charlotte on points. They play Montreal and the Union at Home, plus DC Away. We play RB and the Union Away and Seattle at Home. Charlotte also has 1 more win, meaning if we finish tied they have the first tie breaker. The only way for NYC to catch up on wins and still end tied on points is if NYC wins one game and loses 2 while Charlotte draws all 3. We are 2 behind on Goal Differential after the 4 goal deficit to Miami. We effectively need to win more points in the final 3 games to finish ahead but ours are much tougher. Reminder that though RB are in 10th place they are tied for 3rd best Home record with 2.20 PPG. That's a tough game.
And just for fun, Orlando is 2 points behind with an extra game to play. They have Away to Cincy and Toronto, and Home to the Crew and Vancouver. Sixth is at least as likely as Fifth.
Chances of finishing Top 4 took a big hit jump last night after Charlotte lost to Montreal.
On Playoff Status it barely moved after our game. It was up just 1 to 16%. After all the results it is now 46%. Nobody, including the algorithms, expected Charlotte to lose that game. They had won 6 straight at home. MLS. Go figure.
We have 2 games remaining which is now the same as most teams and fewer than Miami, Cincy, and Orlando. The last 2 play tonight.
We cannot catch Philly.
We trail Cincy by 2 and they have an extra game.
We are even with Miami and they have 2 more games to play.
We are 3 ahead of Charlotte. They play DC Away and the Union at Home. DC is a terrible home team with <1 PPG. I am mostly certain that if we finish tied Charlotte will have more wins and therefore the tiebreaker.
Orlando is 5 points behind with 2 extra games to play. They have Away to Cincy and Toronto, and Home to the Crew and Vancouver.
Nashville is 3 back and even on games. They play Away to Montreal and Home to Miami. If we finish tied on points we probably would be tied on wins and their GD is 16 while ours is 8.
We are Away to the Union and Home to Seattle, at a location TBD. On Playoff Status Cincinnati and Miami are ahead. Of the teams trailing us the team most likely to catch us is Orlando at 25% for Top 4. My guess is 4 points probably gets fourth place for NYC, but it could be 3 or 6.
Home Playoff / Play-In Game Watch
Still not there. Columbus Magic Number is 1, Chicago is 2. Both together gets us out of the Play-In game.
Top Four Magic Numbers
Magic Numbers Miami 13, Cincy 12, Orlando 8, Charlotte and Nashville 4. Have to finish ahead of any 3, plus the teams mentioned above. With 6 points left to win, NYC needs help, but some of these other teams play each other.
On Playoff Status it barely moved after our game. It was up just 1 to 16%. After all the results it is now 46%. Nobody, including the algorithms, expected Charlotte to lose that game. They had won 6 straight at home. MLS. Go figure.
We have 2 games remaining which is now the same as most teams and fewer than Miami, Cincy, and Orlando. The last 2 play tonight.
We cannot catch Philly.
We trail Cincy by 2 and they have an extra game.
We are even with Miami and they have 2 more games to play.
We are 3 ahead of Charlotte. They play DC Away and the Union at Home. DC is a terrible home team with <1 PPG. I am mostly certain that if we finish tied Charlotte will have more wins and therefore the tiebreaker.
Orlando is 5 points behind with 2 extra games to play. They have Away to Cincy and Toronto, and Home to the Crew and Vancouver.
Nashville is 3 back and even on games. They play Away to Montreal and Home to Miami. If we finish tied on points we probably would be tied on wins and their GD is 16 while ours is 8.
We are Away to the Union and Home to Seattle, at a location TBD. On Playoff Status Cincinnati and Miami are ahead. Of the teams trailing us the team most likely to catch us is Orlando at 25% for Top 4. My guess is 4 points probably gets fourth place for NYC, but it could be 3 or 6.
Home Playoff / Play-In Game Watch
Still not there. Columbus Magic Number is 1, Chicago is 2. Both together gets us out of the Play-In game.
Top Four Magic Numbers
Magic Numbers Miami 13, Cincy 12, Orlando 8, Charlotte and Nashville 4. Have to finish ahead of any 3, plus the teams mentioned above. With 6 points left to win, NYC needs help, but some of these other teams play each other.
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Good stuff. Your strong suspicion is correct about Charlotte. We cannot tie with them on points without having fewer wins.
Interesting that we don’t control our own destiny, but that’s mostly because of Orlando and their 4 remaining games. That gives them a magic number of 8 but also more chances to drop points.
What result do we root for tonight? I think a Cincinnati win.
Interesting that we don’t control our own destiny, but that’s mostly because of Orlando and their 4 remaining games. That gives them a magic number of 8 but also more chances to drop points.
What result do we root for tonight? I think a Cincinnati win.
Yes. Cincy win.
I agree with 4 being the number that gets us top 4. Need a result at Philly.
Yes, a Cincy win tonight is best, then a draw.
Now our fate is in our hands. Win the final 2 games and guaranteed at least a 4 seed.
Magic Numbers updated after Cincy-Orlando draw:
Miami 13, Cincy 10, Orlando 6, Charlotte and Nashville 4. Have to finish ahead of any 3.
As noted, 2 wins and 6 points puts NYC in the top 4 without needing help.
4 points for NYCFC means we just need help re Orlando. They play Columbus and Vancouver at home, with Decision Day in Toronto. The Vancouver game is during an international FIFA break. I've no idea how each team might be affected by national team duties.
3 points by NYC will need points dropped by all of Orlando, Charlotte and Nashville.
Playoff status odds went from 46 to 49%. For other: Charlotte and Nashville 19% each, Orlando 18%. Fire mathematically alive but <1% odds.
Miami 13, Cincy 10, Orlando 6, Charlotte and Nashville 4. Have to finish ahead of any 3.
As noted, 2 wins and 6 points puts NYC in the top 4 without needing help.
4 points for NYCFC means we just need help re Orlando. They play Columbus and Vancouver at home, with Decision Day in Toronto. The Vancouver game is during an international FIFA break. I've no idea how each team might be affected by national team duties.
3 points by NYC will need points dropped by all of Orlando, Charlotte and Nashville.
Playoff status odds went from 46 to 49%. For other: Charlotte and Nashville 19% each, Orlando 18%. Fire mathematically alive but <1% odds.
I’ve kind of lost track of the qualifications for entry with all the changes, but I think we’d either need to win MLS Cup or finish high enough in the Supporters’ Shield table that one of the spots falls down to us.
Sign Messi and we’re in
EDITED in view of BC19's post and then some!
If we win out, we CAN qualify for CCC with a little luck
Unless I'm missing something (I did! Thanks Alex!), these are the scenarios if those above us win out:
Philly will likely win SS so they will qualify.
Miami qualifies as leagues up runner up.
Vancouver likely qualifies through canadian championship.
Cinci will likely qualify as 2nd place SS if they don't drop points .
San Diego or LAFC will likely qualify as western conf winners and the other will qualify as 3rd place in SS.
We will need cinci, san diego, or LAFC to drop points for us to squeak into next year's CCC or (my preferred route) win MLS CUP!
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i had totally forgotten about that. i edited my post after thinkin a bit more about it. my post may still be wrong though haha as I'm probably missing something.
Alex Da Silva
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I think if philly claim SS then cinci would not be able to qualify as the Eastern conference winner spot (only the winner of the conference that did not win SS would get that spot) so they would take the next SS slot above us. But if any of those teams win MLS cup then there would be another SS ranking slot open
you're right. i misread the list. read it as east AND west conf winners.
Post Miami loss to the Fire update:
Magic Numbers Miami 10, Cincy 10, Orlando 6, Charlotte and Nashville 4. Have to finish ahead of any 3.
2 wins and 6 points puts NYC in the top 4 without needing help.
Miami and Orlando have 3 games remaining which is better for us under the Magic Number perspective, giving them more opportunity to drop points.
Miami is still a long shot. If NYC gets 6, Miami has to drop 4 points minimum in 3 games. If NYC gets 4 pts, Miami has to lose 2 of 3.
4 points for NYCFC means we really just need Orlando to not win all 3. They play Columbus and Vancouver at home, with Decision Day in Toronto.
3 points by NYC will need points dropped by all of Orlando, Charlotte and Nashville at least.
Playoff status odds to finish Top 4 went from 49 to 52%. For others: Miami 87% and are guaranteed Third if they win out. Nashville 22% Charlotte 21% Orlando 19%. Fire up to 2% to finish Top 4!
Magic Numbers Miami 10, Cincy 10, Orlando 6, Charlotte and Nashville 4. Have to finish ahead of any 3.
2 wins and 6 points puts NYC in the top 4 without needing help.
Miami and Orlando have 3 games remaining which is better for us under the Magic Number perspective, giving them more opportunity to drop points.
Miami is still a long shot. If NYC gets 6, Miami has to drop 4 points minimum in 3 games. If NYC gets 4 pts, Miami has to lose 2 of 3.
4 points for NYCFC means we really just need Orlando to not win all 3. They play Columbus and Vancouver at home, with Decision Day in Toronto.
3 points by NYC will need points dropped by all of Orlando, Charlotte and Nashville at least.
Playoff status odds to finish Top 4 went from 49 to 52%. For others: Miami 87% and are guaranteed Third if they win out. Nashville 22% Charlotte 21% Orlando 19%. Fire up to 2% to finish Top 4!
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It also occurs to me that if the U22 option had been available when we signed Medina, then we maybe don't sign Medina. Medina had a low transfer fee and modestly high salary that required a DP slot. We acquired him to fit into the Young DP requirements. If U22 were an option, I bet we pass on him and instead acquire someone as a U22, which requires lower salary but without a cap on transfer costs.
This has nothing to do with the relative value or contributions of him and Ojeda. it's just a thought experiment that came up.
ETA: this was meant for the roster thread
This has nothing to do with the relative value or contributions of him and Ojeda. it's just a thought experiment that came up.
ETA: this was meant for the roster thread
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NYCFC has been pretty efficient this year, currently fifth in points but just tied for spots 9-11 for Goal Differential at +8. We benefit from a 11-6-5 record, 1.73 PPG, in games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The only other teams with double digit 1-goal wins are Cincinnati (15-5-5-, 2.00) and Philly (10-7-6, 1.56).
The impetus for this is me looking ahead to 2026 and thinking we need to improve because performance in low scoring games is rarely repeatable. But Cincinnati is managing it.
Cincy 2023: 14-5-9 1.82 PPG, only team with 10 or more 1-goal wins
Cincy 2024: 14-6-5 1.88 PPG, next highest 1-goal win total was 11.
I'm not sure how they're doing it. The 2023 team was really good, with the second highest GD and their overall PPG was even higher than the 1-goal game total. So maybe that just reflected how good they were and only 2024 and 2025 are anomalies. Certainly no other teams have shown to be capable of winning this particular way.
Back to NYCFC. Right now on the combined table the team is 5th in Points, but just 14th in GF, and 10th in GA. Plus our GD is much better than our xGD. This will be a top 3 NYCFC team for results that exceed the underlying data. The others were 2016 and 2019. Both were followed by teams whose results basically matched what the numbers predicted. Unfortunately 2020 is a mostly useless data point because of Covid, a new coach, plus the top 2 leading scorers from 2019 were injured or transferred and not replaced.
But 2017 is interesting. The team earned more points than 2016 despite not exceeding its underlying numbers because the underlying numbers got much better. EG, the actual GD went from +5 to +13. It's fun to win on thin margins. It's more reliable to win on solid margins. We can't expect to do what Cincy seems to have done 3 years in a row. 2026 NYCFC will need to be better, especially in scoring goals. Mid-table in goals scored and barely top-third for goals allowed will not reliably result in finishing top 4 in your conference.
The impetus for this is me looking ahead to 2026 and thinking we need to improve because performance in low scoring games is rarely repeatable. But Cincinnati is managing it.
Cincy 2023: 14-5-9 1.82 PPG, only team with 10 or more 1-goal wins
Cincy 2024: 14-6-5 1.88 PPG, next highest 1-goal win total was 11.
I'm not sure how they're doing it. The 2023 team was really good, with the second highest GD and their overall PPG was even higher than the 1-goal game total. So maybe that just reflected how good they were and only 2024 and 2025 are anomalies. Certainly no other teams have shown to be capable of winning this particular way.
Back to NYCFC. Right now on the combined table the team is 5th in Points, but just 14th in GF, and 10th in GA. Plus our GD is much better than our xGD. This will be a top 3 NYCFC team for results that exceed the underlying data. The others were 2016 and 2019. Both were followed by teams whose results basically matched what the numbers predicted. Unfortunately 2020 is a mostly useless data point because of Covid, a new coach, plus the top 2 leading scorers from 2019 were injured or transferred and not replaced.
But 2017 is interesting. The team earned more points than 2016 despite not exceeding its underlying numbers because the underlying numbers got much better. EG, the actual GD went from +5 to +13. It's fun to win on thin margins. It's more reliable to win on solid margins. We can't expect to do what Cincy seems to have done 3 years in a row. 2026 NYCFC will need to be better, especially in scoring goals. Mid-table in goals scored and barely top-third for goals allowed will not reliably result in finishing top 4 in your conference.
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