NYCFC Season Discussion 2025: Party Like It's 2023 (2024 If You're Lucky)

[Gotham Gator]

Good stuff.

Some random thoughts on what might create a lot of one-goal victories.

Break it into two parts - what creates a lot of victories and what creates a lot of one-goal games.

Victories are created by being good (or lucky). Such a team is going to have more wins that other results, and so it will it is likely to have better results in one-goal games - more wins than losses or draws.

A team that is strong on defense is going to have more one-goal games than a team that is weak on defense. Lower scoring games are going to lead to closer results.

Thus, a team that is very good (or lucky) and has a strong defense should tend to have the most wins in one-goal games.

 

[mgarbowski]

Good stuff.

Some random thoughts on what might create a lot of one-goal victories.

Break it into two parts - what creates a lot of victories and what creates a lot of one-goal games.

Victories are created by being good (or lucky). Such a team is going to have more wins that other results, and so it will it is likely to have better results in one-goal games - more wins than losses or draws.

A team that is strong on defense is going to have more one-goal games than a team that is weak on defense. Lower scoring games are going to lead to closer results.

Thus, a team that is very good (or lucky) and has a strong defense should tend to have the most wins in one-goal games.

I'm not sure that's right. Or only partly right. Conceding fewer goals usually leads to more low margin games, but even more so when combined with a poor offense.
Games that end 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 are by definition low margin games. Someone has to score 2 or more for a game to be decided by 2. As either teams scores 3, or 4, or 5 etc., the likelihood of a non-close score increases. If you have a great defense but also a good number of multi-goal games, you won't have many low margin games (which is of course very good).

The 2023 Edition of NYCFC scored 35 and allowed 39, both slightly more than 1 per game. Only 2 teams scored fewer and only 4 allowed fewer that year. It's no surprise they ended with 14 ties, most in team history. Next closest is 10.

That said, theres a lot of randomness in this. 2019 NYCFC has the second most draws in team history, despite a +18 GD and also the most goals scored in team history.

Finally, 2025 NYCFC is only moderately good on defense. Nine teams have conceded fewer goals. Our 9 clean sheets is also tied for 9th in the league. We have excelled at limiting defensive fiascos. Only 1 team has conceded 3 or more goals fewer times than NYCFC.

 

[413Blue]

Good stuff.

Some random thoughts on what might create a lot of one-goal victories.

Break it into two parts - what creates a lot of victories and what creates a lot of one-goal games.

Victories are created by being good (or lucky). Such a team is going to have more wins that other results, and so it will it is likely to have better results in one-goal games - more wins than losses or draws.

A team that is strong on defense is going to have more one-goal games than a team that is weak on defense. Lower scoring games are going to lead to closer results.

Thus, a team that is very good (or lucky) and has a strong defense should tend to have the most wins in one-goal games.

I'm not sure that's right. Or only partly right. Conceding fewer goals usually leads to more low margin games, but even more so when combined with a poor offense.
Games that end 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 are by definition low margin games. Someone has to score 2 or more for a game to be decided by 2. As either teams scores 3, or 4, or 5 etc., the likelihood of a non-close score increases. If you have a great defense but also a good number of multi-goal games, you won't have many low margin games (which is of course very good).

The 2023 Edition of NYCFC scored 35 and allowed 39, both slightly more than 1 per game. Only 2 teams scored fewer and only 4 allowed fewer that year. It's no surprise they ended with 14 ties, most in team history. Next closest is 10.

That said, theres a lot of randomness in this. 2019 NYCFC has the second most draws in team history, despite a +18 GD and also the most goals scored in team history.

Finally, 2025 NYCFC is only moderately good on defense. Nine teams have conceded fewer goals. Our 9 clean sheets is also tied for 9th in the league. We have excelled at limiting defensive fiascos. Only 1 team has conceded 3 or more goals fewer times than NYCFC.

So basically, the trick to having a good record in 1 goal games is to just be a somewhat good team. Not great, because then you would win more games by bigger margins, not average because then you would have more draws and few multi goal losses.

I'd say that fits us. We are better than average.