Heading into this season the consensus worry about 2026 was the lack of a striker and whether the team would score enough goals.
At the quarter mark, nine games into the season the club has 19 goals, tied for most after 9 games in club history with the 2018 and 2022 models. Defensively, the 15 goals allowed is tied with the defensively inept 2015 squad.
But it's not like the team solved its goal scoring issues. 9 of the 19 goals were scored against the 2 worst defenses in MLS, Orlando and Cincinnati. Toss in the 3 against Colorado, and in the remaining 6 games NYCFC has scored just 7 goals. Scoring 37% of your goals in 67% of your games is not a recipe for success.
Goalkeeping is not the strength we expected. Among 30 MLS keepers with 500 minutes, Freese ranks 20 in G-xG, 19th in G/xG, and 21st in ASA's Goals Added metric. NYCFC started leaking goals in the back end of 2025, during what was overall a strong finish. Through the first 23 games of 2025, NYC conceded 1.13 goals per game. Over the final 11 games that jumped to 1.64 and now 1.67 in the first 9 games of 2026. That's a huge jump of an added half goal allowed per game.
Opponents Are Shooting Better, and Freese is Slipping
In the first 23 games in 2025, NYCFC allowed 1.48 xGA to opponents. In the 20 games since, that dipped slightly to 1.40 xGA. So that does not explain the added goals allowed. But you might remember last summer I pointed out that opponents were terrible at shooting against NYCFC, and that I thought it was luck. In the first 23 games last year, Freese faced a post-shot xGA of just 1.17 even though the team allowed 1.48 regular xGA. In the most recent 20 games, Freese is facing a post shot xGA of 1.41, nearly identical to the pre-shot xGA. That increase alone explains about half of the extra 0.5 goals allowed per game.
On top of that, Freese had a G-xG of -0.18 per game, and in the 20 games since then his G-xG is +0.17. That's a 0.35 goal per game switch and combined with the improved shooting more than explains all the added goals allowed.
It's Cruel to be Mean
Besides no longer benefitting from opponents who can't shoot straight, some other variances that favored NYCFC in 2025 have reverted, and even overshot, the mean. In 2025 NYC set a club record with eleven 1 goal wins against 8 losses On top of that they set a club record for fewest ties with 5. Ties are bad, not neutral . As happy as you are to grab a point after trailing late, on a macro level, avoiding draws is good. 2025 NYCFC set a club record for points won in -1,0,+1 GD games with 38. The previous best was 36 in 2017 and team average is about 28. This year, NYCFC was 1W, 2L, and 3 draws in tight games, good for 6 points and on track for about 23 points in tight games in 2026. That's a huge drop in points from tight games.
Is it luck? I can't answer that definitively, but I think it is, mostly. I find this interesting. NYCFC has played 372 MLS games. Of those, 92 finished in draws, and 148 had a goal differential of +1 or - 1. The record in the 1 goal games is 75-73. I don't know if similar numbers hold for other teams, but that's very much in line with what you would expect if 1-goal games were random.
Excluding draws, NYCFC's record in 1-goal games is 2 wins above .500 and earn 1.52 PPG. In games decided by 2 or more goals the team record is 85-47, 38 games above .500 and 1.93 PPG. Games decided by 2 or more is where quality really shows. You cannot count on results in close games, and so far in 2026 they are not coming for NYCFC as they did in 2025. Finally, and relatedly, in 2025 NYCFC won 7.46 more points than xPoints. This year they have 3.16 fewer Points than xPoints.
I guess it's good news that these random factors can turn on a dime and for no apparent reason, and NYCFC might get better results over the final 25 games even if play does not improve all that much. On the other hand, that might not happen. You're not as good as you seem when the bounces are favorable (2025), and not as bad when they don't (2026).
At the quarter mark, nine games into the season the club has 19 goals, tied for most after 9 games in club history with the 2018 and 2022 models. Defensively, the 15 goals allowed is tied with the defensively inept 2015 squad.
But it's not like the team solved its goal scoring issues. 9 of the 19 goals were scored against the 2 worst defenses in MLS, Orlando and Cincinnati. Toss in the 3 against Colorado, and in the remaining 6 games NYCFC has scored just 7 goals. Scoring 37% of your goals in 67% of your games is not a recipe for success.
Goalkeeping is not the strength we expected. Among 30 MLS keepers with 500 minutes, Freese ranks 20 in G-xG, 19th in G/xG, and 21st in ASA's Goals Added metric. NYCFC started leaking goals in the back end of 2025, during what was overall a strong finish. Through the first 23 games of 2025, NYC conceded 1.13 goals per game. Over the final 11 games that jumped to 1.64 and now 1.67 in the first 9 games of 2026. That's a huge jump of an added half goal allowed per game.
Opponents Are Shooting Better, and Freese is Slipping
In the first 23 games in 2025, NYCFC allowed 1.48 xGA to opponents. In the 20 games since, that dipped slightly to 1.40 xGA. So that does not explain the added goals allowed. But you might remember last summer I pointed out that opponents were terrible at shooting against NYCFC, and that I thought it was luck. In the first 23 games last year, Freese faced a post-shot xGA of just 1.17 even though the team allowed 1.48 regular xGA. In the most recent 20 games, Freese is facing a post shot xGA of 1.41, nearly identical to the pre-shot xGA. That increase alone explains about half of the extra 0.5 goals allowed per game.
On top of that, Freese had a G-xG of -0.18 per game, and in the 20 games since then his G-xG is +0.17. That's a 0.35 goal per game switch and combined with the improved shooting more than explains all the added goals allowed.
It's Cruel to be Mean
Besides no longer benefitting from opponents who can't shoot straight, some other variances that favored NYCFC in 2025 have reverted, and even overshot, the mean. In 2025 NYC set a club record with eleven 1 goal wins against 8 losses On top of that they set a club record for fewest ties with 5. Ties are bad, not neutral . As happy as you are to grab a point after trailing late, on a macro level, avoiding draws is good. 2025 NYCFC set a club record for points won in -1,0,+1 GD games with 38. The previous best was 36 in 2017 and team average is about 28. This year, NYCFC was 1W, 2L, and 3 draws in tight games, good for 6 points and on track for about 23 points in tight games in 2026. That's a huge drop in points from tight games.
Is it luck? I can't answer that definitively, but I think it is, mostly. I find this interesting. NYCFC has played 372 MLS games. Of those, 92 finished in draws, and 148 had a goal differential of +1 or - 1. The record in the 1 goal games is 75-73. I don't know if similar numbers hold for other teams, but that's very much in line with what you would expect if 1-goal games were random.
Excluding draws, NYCFC's record in 1-goal games is 2 wins above .500 and earn 1.52 PPG. In games decided by 2 or more goals the team record is 85-47, 38 games above .500 and 1.93 PPG. Games decided by 2 or more is where quality really shows. You cannot count on results in close games, and so far in 2026 they are not coming for NYCFC as they did in 2025. Finally, and relatedly, in 2025 NYCFC won 7.46 more points than xPoints. This year they have 3.16 fewer Points than xPoints.
I guess it's good news that these random factors can turn on a dime and for no apparent reason, and NYCFC might get better results over the final 25 games even if play does not improve all that much. On the other hand, that might not happen. You're not as good as you seem when the bounces are favorable (2025), and not as bad when they don't (2026).
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