2026 NYCFC Season Discussion

[mgarbowski]

Heading into this season the consensus worry about 2026 was the lack of a striker and whether the team would score enough goals.

At the quarter mark, nine games into the season the club has 19 goals, tied for most after 9 games in club history with the 2018 and 2022 models. Defensively, the 15 goals allowed is tied with the defensively inept 2015 squad.

But it's not like the team solved its goal scoring issues. 9 of the 19 goals were scored against the 2 worst defenses in MLS, Orlando and Cincinnati. Toss in the 3 against Colorado, and in the remaining 6 games NYCFC has scored just 7 goals. Scoring 37% of your goals in 67% of your games is not a recipe for success.

Goalkeeping is not the strength we expected. Among 30 MLS keepers with 500 minutes, Freese ranks 20 in G-xG, 19th in G/xG, and 21st in ASA's Goals Added metric. NYCFC started leaking goals in the back end of 2025, during what was overall a strong finish. Through the first 23 games of 2025, NYC conceded 1.13 goals per game. Over the final 11 games that jumped to 1.64 and now 1.67 in the first 9 games of 2026. That's a huge jump of an added half goal allowed per game.

Opponents Are Shooting Better, and Freese is Slipping

In the first 23 games in 2025, NYCFC allowed 1.48 xGA to opponents. In the 20 games since, that dipped slightly to 1.40 xGA. So that does not explain the added goals allowed. But you might remember last summer I pointed out that opponents were terrible at shooting against NYCFC, and that I thought it was luck. In the first 23 games last year, Freese faced a post-shot xGA of just 1.17 even though the team allowed 1.48 regular xGA. In the most recent 20 games, Freese is facing a post shot xGA of 1.41, nearly identical to the pre-shot xGA. That increase alone explains about half of the extra 0.5 goals allowed per game.

On top of that, Freese had a G-xG of -0.18 per game, and in the 20 games since then his G-xG is +0.17. That's a 0.35 goal per game switch and combined with the improved shooting more than explains all the added goals allowed.

It's Cruel to be Mean
Besides no longer benefitting from opponents who can't shoot straight, some other variances that favored NYCFC in 2025 have reverted, and even overshot, the mean. In 2025 NYC set a club record with eleven 1 goal wins against 8 losses On top of that they set a club record for fewest ties with 5. Ties are bad, not neutral . As happy as you are to grab a point after trailing late, on a macro level, avoiding draws is good. 2025 NYCFC set a club record for points won in -1,0,+1 GD games with 38. The previous best was 36 in 2017 and team average is about 28. This year, NYCFC was 1W, 2L, and 3 draws in tight games, good for 6 points and on track for about 23 points in tight games in 2026. That's a huge drop in points from tight games.

Is it luck? I can't answer that definitively, but I think it is, mostly. I find this interesting. NYCFC has played 372 MLS games. Of those, 92 finished in draws, and 148 had a goal differential of +1 or - 1. The record in the 1 goal games is 75-73. I don't know if similar numbers hold for other teams, but that's very much in line with what you would expect if 1-goal games were random.

Excluding draws, NYCFC's record in 1-goal games is 2 wins above .500 and earn 1.52 PPG. In games decided by 2 or more goals the team record is 85-47, 38 games above .500 and 1.93 PPG. Games decided by 2 or more is where quality really shows. You cannot count on results in close games, and so far in 2026 they are not coming for NYCFC as they did in 2025. Finally, and relatedly, in 2025 NYCFC won 7.46 more points than xPoints. This year they have 3.16 fewer Points than xPoints.

I guess it's good news that these random factors can turn on a dime and for no apparent reason, and NYCFC might get better results over the final 25 games even if play does not improve all that much. On the other hand, that might not happen. You're not as good as you seem when the bounces are favorable (2025), and not as bad when they don't (2026).

 

[gbservis]

Not super analytically meaningful but as of today Nico is 2nd in MLS for goals and Maxi is tied for second in assists. I didn't see that coming. I still think we are at the start of the wheels coming off as we enter this stretch of major schedule congestion with very limited roster depth. Not sure how you model fitness with stats but are are about to lead the league in xTired.

 

[LionNYC]

Not super analytically meaningful but as of today Nico is 2nd in MLS for goals and Maxi is tied for second in assists. I didn't see that coming. I still think we are at the start of the wheels coming off as we enter this stretch of major schedule congestion with very limited roster depth. Not sure how you model fitness with stats but are are about to lead the league in xTired.

Remember that there's a whole month off from June to July this season. And Nico and Maxi aren't playing in the World Cup. So tired may not be a problem this year.

 

[gbservis]

Remember that there's a whole month off from June to July this season. And Nico and Maxi aren't playing in the World Cup. So tired may not be a problem this year.

I think the fitness issues are already causing issuses in this stretch of 6 games in 18 days. The WC break will certainly help but the limited squad depth is going to cost us points well before then. You could probably argue that it just cost us points in the Cincinnati game given how tired Gray and KOT looked.

 

[mgarbowski]

Schedule strength update before today's match against Montreal.

The H/A adjusted opponent PPG to date stands at 1.00, which is the easiest schedule in MLS. Fortunately the remaining is only 1.39, just the 18th hardest schedule. This is possible because the West has 6 of the best 8 records in the league and they all have to play each other. All 15 teams in the West have remaining schedules more difficult than NYCFC has. NYCFC has the 3rd toughest remaining schedule in the East.

 

[mgarbowski]

From the first historic game against Orlando in March 2015 through Taty Castellanos' last game in baby blue, NYCFC's record was 113W-75L-60T: 248 games, 399 points, 1.61 PPG, and 38 more wins than losses.
1.71 G/90 , 1.31 GA/90. Goal differential +97.

Since then, 125 games, 173 Points, 1.38 PPG, and 1 game over 500 at 47-46-32.
1.39 G/90, 1.34 GA/90, Goal Differential +6.

We’re 11 games short of 4 years of mediocre soccer.

 

[JayH]

From the first historic game against Orlando in March 2015 through Taty Castellanos' last game in baby blue, NYCFC's record was 113W-75L-60T: 248 games, 399 points, 1.69 PPG, and 38 more wins than losses.
1.71 G/90 , 1.31 GA/90. Goal differential +97.

Since then, 125 games, 173 Points, 1.38 PPG, and 1 game over 500 at 47-46-32.
1.39 G/90, 1.34 GA/90, Goal Differential +6.

We’re 11 games short of 4 years of mediocre soccer.

The aristocracy of mediocrity. That’s what our front office strives for.

 

[mgarbowski]

The aristocracy of mediocrity. That’s what our front office strives for.

Be CFG.
Win MLS Cup in your 7th season, which is also your worst regular season since expansion year.
Decide that regular season success is irrelevant, especially the first 14-20 games, and conduct yourself accordingly.
It's especially frustrating because by some advanced metrics 2021 was the best regular season in club history, and drawing lessons based specifically on the negative variance is exceedingly stupid.

 

[Joe_Cos]

It will be interesting to see what the FO does if the team continues on this uninspiring form of play with Etihad Park general admissions ticket prices being announced in July/August. If the team is in 8th or below the line, how many people are going to question if they want to spend on higher season tickets when the team won’t spend money on the roster.

 

[mgarbowski]

It's a two-month mid-season break not quite halfway through the season. How do things stand?

League Rankings

	2026	2025	Post Taty	Before Taty Left
GF​	9	16	21	2
GA​	10	7	5	7
xGF​	20	15	20	2
xGA​	12	6	6	11
GD​	11	12	12	2
xGD​	15	11	9	2
Points​	17	9	14	2
xPts​	12	13	12	2

All rankings based on ASA per game stats. The Post Taty column includes 2026 and 2026.
What I find notable:

• The 2026 team is much less fortunate than 2025. The Team xGD ranking is down from 11 to 15, and actual GD ranking is slightly up. But last year we exceeded our xPts ranking by 4 and this year we sit 5 spots below the xPts rank. The xPts reversion is predictable and I did in fact do so. It doesn't have to happen but it probably will.
• It's not on the chart but 2025 NYCFC finished with 48.54 xPts and 56 points. Projecting out, 2026 would have 49.98 xPts, almost zero change, and just 43 points.
• League wide, in the post linked in the first bullet I listed 6 teams including NYCFC whose Points exceeded their xPoints by more than 6 points. Five of those six teams have points lower than their xPoints in 2026 so far, with Miami being the exception. It's hard to stay lucky or unlucky forever.
• The upside is that while we were not as good as results last year, we are better than our results this year, and that is always subject to reversal. I doesn't have to happen in the second half of 2026. It's not even guaranteed to happen next year. But it will eventually flip or at least get closer to even.
• The only area in which the post Taty era significantly exceeds the before times is Goals Allowed. The offense fell off a cliff. This year is roughly comparable to the last 4 years overall, with an improvement in the goals scored ranking, which is entirely due to outscoring our xG, and perhaps other teams underperforming their xG. Meanwhile team defense is worse, which is largely due to Freese not performing as well since the xGA has not moved much.

Speaking of Defense
Updating the very first post in this thread:
In the first 23 games in 2025, NYCFC allowed 1.48 xGA to opponents. In the 26 games since, that dipped slightly to 1.42 xGA. So that does not explain the added goals allowed. But in the first part of 2025 opponents were terrible at shooting against NYCFC. At the time I believed it was luck. In the first 23 games last year, Freese faced a post-shot xGA of just 1.17 even though the team allowed 1.48 regular xGA. In the most recent 26 games, Freese is facing a post shot xGA of 1.38, much closer to the pre-shot xGA. That increase alone explains about half of the extra 0.5 goals allowed per game.

On top of that, Freese had a G-xG of -0.18 per game, and in the 20 games since then his G-xG is +0.06. That's a 0.24 goal per game switch for the worse, though it has improved since my April post.

One-Goal Margin Games
2025 NYCFC had 11 wins and 8 losses in 1-goal games, with just 5 draws. 2026 NYCFC has 2 wins against 4 losses, and already 4 draws. On balance , draws are bad. My contention is that performance in 1-goal games is mostly luck. After playing more than 11 seasons, NYCFC's record in 1-goal games cumulative is 76 Wins and 75 Losses. I believe your record in 1-goal games is largely luck and you show your quality in wins and losses of 2 goals or more.

From 2015-2022, when NYCFC was good, its record in 1-goal games was 51-52. In goals decided by 2 or more NYCFC was 66-30.
From 2023-2026, the record in 1-goal games is 25-23, and in larger margin games it is 20-18. All of the difference between NYCFC's good era and its mediocre era is based on games decided by more than one goal. As such, I think the evidence shows that the main difference between 2025 and 2026 performance is the luck of winning or losing 1-goal games.

Historically, 2019 was a great team, but also very fortunate, going 8-3 in 1-goal games and 10-3 in the others.
2021's underperformance is a result of 1-goal games, going 5-9, while winning larger margin contests by a 9-2 record, roughly equal to 2019. Even out the luck and the 2021 team was as good or better than 2019 in the regular season. NYCFC's 2021 team is a load-bearing fixture for my belief that 1-goal games are creatures of chance and that luck plays a much bigger role than almost anyone: coaches, players and fans, wants to believe. In the playoffs, 2021 NYCFC displayed an apparent steely resolve to win close games and dominate shootouts. Yet that same resolve was nowhere to be seen in close games during the season. It’s ephemeral.
To be clear, I don't think 1-goal games are solely responsible for team luck, but they carry a lot of it. And luck is not all. As noted, you can best tell how good a team is by looking at the record in games decided by 2 or more.
One final caveat: I've no idea what the record is for other MLS teams in 1-goal games, and no interest in putting in the work to find out. It's possible that NYCFC's 1-goal game experience is an anomaly, and much of what I'm suggesting here is all wrong. I would be surprised to find that out, but it is possible. I would expect that a few teams have long term records in close games that are unusually good or bad, but that most cluster around the same spot where NYCFC is.

How Bad Are Things
NYCFC sits in 8th place, but just 6 points back of the 4th place team and 7 behind third. That's a very manageable gap, but we need help.



New England and Chicago are on pace to finish with 61-63 points. If they actually do so, NYCFC would need to win at a minimum 2.20 PPG clip to reach them. NYCFC would need to be as good in the second half as Nashville and Vancouver have been in the first. I suppose that could happen, but I'm not expecting that even with a very successful summer window.

But I expect Chicago or New England to falter some. The Revs GD is the same as ours. The top 5 teams in the East standings also lead the East as the top 5 in Pts-xPts, which is to say, regardless of how good they are they have all been rather fortunate. NYCFC ranks 10th in the East by that measure. Over just 19-20 games that could very well hold, but I think it's not so likely to hold for every team. Some of the top 5 are likely to slip. I'm not sure we can catch Nashville or Miami regardless, but the other 3 are gettable with improved play and some general reversion to form.
But the other issue is there are 7 teams in front of NYCFC. Before passing Chicago or New England we also have to pass all of RB, Charlotte and Cincinnati.

The Playoff Status website says NYCFC has a 24% chance of finishing top 4. That's probably pretty accurate, with my repeated admonition that finishing 4th does not bode well. It is still rare that a 4th place team wins MLS Cup. It's more that finishing below 4th place leaves a chance of winning MLS Cup that is barely de minimis as it has never happened since 2010, and that was in a combined single league table. It was another world.