Away - 5/25 Houston
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While everyone is worried, and rightfully so about Elis, Houston has been poor defensively. I keep thinking back to the LAFC game and trying to exploit the gap in the midfield to get Villa runouts, and I'd say it's fair to expect at least a goal from the front 3 tonight. Seeing as his finishing is spectacular, I tend to underestimate how fast Isi is. And with Villa playing smart balls right now, I wouldn't be shocked to see Shradi get behind a Houston that should be pressing to score on us at home.
I'm sorry but I don't see Houston pressing us, which is what concerns me. In our two away losses this season, the opponents had very different ideas on how to deal with us. RBNJ pressed us high and with intensity, but Portland gave us as much space and time on the ball as possible (we had 75% possession away!), enticing us to spread out and leave gaps for them to counter as soon as we presented them with a giveaway. They positioned themselves deep in their own half. "Home" meant nothing to them. They played like the away team. And we were sloppy, and they took advantage. Given their style, and what suits them, I would expect Houston (and Vancouver, for example) to do the same. That said, Houston is not as disciplined, so I hope it'll be a game of who blinks first, and it'll be them.
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Yeah, Elis is one of the best attackers in the league and plays on our weaker defensive side, but don't sleep on the rest of Houston's front four. Quioto in particular is outstanding at dribbling into dangerous areas on the left side of the box to serve it up to Manotas on a platter. Mata and Tinnerholm will both have their hands full.
On the back end, like Sabo pointed out, Wenger's a liability at right back—most of the danger opponents have created against Houston has come from Villa's favorite corner of the box. This feels to me like a back-to-basics game where we ought to roll out the 4-3-3, build patiently, and keep our fullbacks tracking Houston's wingers even in possession. As long as we don't let the league's best xG/g offense beat us on the break (they're second in the league under ASA's fastbreak pattern of play), we shouldn't have too much trouble finding holes in their mediocre defense.
On the back end, like Sabo pointed out, Wenger's a liability at right back—most of the danger opponents have created against Houston has come from Villa's favorite corner of the box. This feels to me like a back-to-basics game where we ought to roll out the 4-3-3, build patiently, and keep our fullbacks tracking Houston's wingers even in possession. As long as we don't let the league's best xG/g offense beat us on the break (they're second in the league under ASA's fastbreak pattern of play), we shouldn't have too much trouble finding holes in their mediocre defense.
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