COVID-19 - Leagues Suspended

canchon said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1250468900732424193

Ian with some info about how Germany is slowly reopening, it says no sporting events until August 31st.

Considering how Germany has handled COVID way better than the US, no way MLS is returning with fans any time before that.

If MLS wants to have a season this year, it will have to be “MLS Studio” games with no fans and maybe in one central location.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think we all now believe there will be no fans in any American sports until probably 2021.
 
canchon said:
Considering how Germany has handled COVID way better than the US, no way MLS is returning with fans any time before that.
If MLS wants to have a season this year, it will have to be “MLS Studio” games with no fans and maybe in one central location.
Click to expand...
I hope Germany can actually have sporting events with fans starting in August, but I have doubts. I think they will end up waiting until 2021. But regardless of whether Germany can keep to the schedule in that list, most of MLS should be able to do something similar to Germany.

Because at this point any analysis that does not reflect different regional rates in the US is not very useful. Outside of the Acela corridor, plus Louisiana and Illinois, the country is doing very well.

Specifically, 39 states have fewer cases per 1 million residents than Germany does. The 11 states plus DC with worse rates than Germany represent only 6 MLS clubs. I don't have province by province data for Canada, but on the whole its case rate is about half of Germany. Do you prefer deaths/million? Then 32 states are still doing better than Germany, and just 3 more teams are affected.
Source

Of course, we do not know when the relevant states and Canada will reopen, but there is no need for the rest of the country to wait for the northeast and Louisiana to get it together. So, if you can figure out a solution for NYCFC, Red Bulls, DC United, Philly Union, New England Revs and the Chicago Fire to play elsewhere, it would appear MLS should have as much flexibility as the Bundesliga does. That's tough for those teams, but realistically, will MLS, and other leagues, wait until NY is normal even though the rest of the country has resumed public activities? Maybe not in 2020, but in 2021?
 
mgarbowski said:
I hope Germany can actually have sporting events with fans starting in August, but I have doubts. I think they will end up waiting until 2021. But regardless of whether Germany can keep to the schedule in that list, most of MLS should be able to do something similar to Germany.

Because at this point any analysis that does not reflect different regional rates in the US is not very useful. Outside of the Acela corridor, plus Louisiana and Illinois, the country is doing very well.

Specifically, 39 states have fewer cases per 1 million residents than Germany does. The 11 states plus DC with worse rates than Germany represent only 6 MLS clubs. I don't have province by province data for Canada, but on the whole its case rate is about half of Germany. Do you prefer deaths/million? Then 32 states are still doing better than Germany, and just 3 more teams are affected.
Source

Of course, we do not know when the relevant states and Canada will reopen, but there is no need for the rest of the country to wait for the northeast and Louisiana to get it together. So, if you can figure out a solution for NYCFC, Red Bulls, DC United, Philly Union, New England Revs and the Chicago Fire to play elsewhere, it would appear MLS should have as much flexibility as the Bundesliga does. That's tough for those teams, but realistically, will MLS, and other leagues, wait until NY is normal even though the rest of the country has resumed public activities? Maybe not in 2020, but in 2021?
Click to expand...

Many of those places are doing well, though, because they started the stay-at-home orders before cases started. New York is in such bad shape -- and Florida is likely to spike -- because the virus was here earlier than we realized it. So if you ease the measures too soon, it could allow the virus to spread again.

Some of the doctors say if you end these measures in two weeks, it could spike again. That's the danger in doing it too soon.
 
ZYanksRule said:
Many of those places are doing well, though, because they started the stay-at-home orders before cases started. New York is in such bad shape -- and Florida is likely to spike -- because the virus was here earlier than we realized it. So if you ease the measures too soon, it could allow the virus to spread again.

Some of the doctors say if you end these measures in two weeks, it could spike again. That's the danger in doing it too soon.
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The same is true of Germany. I think Germany's schedule is too ambitious. I hope I'm wrong. I'm just saying most of our country and most of MLS is in better shape than Germany is and there's no reason they can't open up on a similar schedule to whatever turns out to be right for Germany, and whenever that is, leagues will have a tough decision to make when 80% of their league locations are safe but NYC/NJ and New England are not.
 
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mgarbowski said:
The same is true of Germany. I think Germany's schedule is too ambitious. I hope I'm wrong. I'm just saying most of our country and most of MLS is in better shape than Germany is and there's no reason they can't open up on a similar to whatever turns out to be right for Germany.
Click to expand...

I think the most likely scenario is some type of thing like MLB is suggesting, which is a centralized location where they can play the games with no fans in attendance starting anywhere from mid-June or early July.
 
mgarbowski said:
I hope Germany can actually have sporting events with fans starting in August, but I have doubts. I think they will end up waiting until 2021. But regardless of whether Germany can keep to the schedule in that list, most of MLS should be able to do something similar to Germany.

Because at this point any analysis that does not reflect different regional rates in the US is not very useful. Outside of the Acela corridor, plus Louisiana and Illinois, the country is doing very well.

Specifically, 39 states have fewer cases per 1 million residents than Germany does. The 11 states plus DC with worse rates than Germany represent only 6 MLS clubs. I don't have province by province data for Canada, but on the whole its case rate is about half of Germany. Do you prefer deaths/million? Then 32 states are still doing better than Germany, and just 3 more teams are affected.
Source

Of course, we do not know when the relevant states and Canada will reopen, but there is no need for the rest of the country to wait for the northeast and Louisiana to get it together. So, if you can figure out a solution for NYCFC, Red Bulls, DC United, Philly Union, New England Revs and the Chicago Fire to play elsewhere, it would appear MLS should have as much flexibility as the Bundesliga does. That's tough for those teams, but realistically, will MLS, and other leagues, wait until NY is normal even though the rest of the country has resumed public activities? Maybe not in 2020, but in 2021?
Click to expand...
Many states are doing “well” because they’re not testing with any concentration. Just yesterday I read about new hotspots in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. The doctors and nurses interviewed from each city all said the same thing- they’ve never seen anything like this (people being admitted and an hour later on a ventilator) and they have witnessed more deaths in two weeks than the last three years of their residency.

Florida’s governor DeSantis is short selling the number of deaths from hospitals because if a test wasn’t administered, even if every indication point to Covid-19, then the state isn’t listing the death as Covid.

US Regional rates are as believable as China’s rates.
 
413Blue said:
Please tell me you know that is ridiculous and you are simply dramatizing.
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If testing isn’t being done at levels close to NY/NJ, how can the regional rates be believed. It’s binary, either believable or not believable. I’ll put money done that the rate of infection in those states is higher than what’s reported because if tests aren’t done, there’s nothing to report.
 
Ulrich said:
If testing isn’t being done at levels close to NY/NJ, how can the regional rates be believed. It’s binary, either believable or not believable. I’ll put money done that the rate of infection in those states is higher than what’s reported because if tests aren’t done, there’s nothing to report.
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Of course they are higher. They are higher everywhere. But you can't tell me you think the real numbers are relative to China, in which almost every independent analyst believe China's real numbers are anywhere from 3-15x the stated numbers.

Florida hospitals are not at capacity right now, and to the best of my knowledge they haven't rushed to build a ton of new hospitals yet. So their stated numbers have to be within a reasonable reach of the real numbers, at least on the deaths side.
 
413Blue said:
Of course they are higher. They are higher everywhere. But you can't tell me you think the real numbers are relative to China, in which almost every independent analyst believe China's real numbers are anywhere from 3-15x the stated numbers.

Florida hospitals are not at capacity right now, and to the best of my knowledge they haven't rushed to build a ton of new hospitals yet. So their stated numbers have to be within a reasonable reach of the real numbers, at least on the deaths side.
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I didn’t say what you’re accusing me of saying.

Florida has a high number of ICU units and capacity because of their aging population - they aren’t near capacity because their peak isn’t until the middle of May. If they’re already past 20k infections, with 3-5 weeks to go, then the numbers will ramp up significantly, especially in the land of nursing homes.
 
Ulrich said:
I didn’t say what you’re accusing me of saying.

Florida has a high number of ICU units and capacity because of their aging population - they aren’t near capacity because their peak isn’t until the middle of May. If they’re already past 20k infections, with 3-5 weeks to go, then the numbers will ramp up significantly, especially in the land of nursing homes.
Click to expand...

Yes, Florida is going to get bad. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if they fare worse per capita than New York.

As for the China claim you made -- I don't know if our reporting levels are quite that bad, though I also have no information that confirms our suspicious about China. It's fair to question their reporting, but I've yet to see anything concrete that indicates it's true. It probably is true, but what evidence have we seen?

That said, you are 100% right that we are not reporting the majority of the real cases in this country. So many people have said they are 99% sure they had it, but never got tested. There was reporting early on in the pandemic that our infection rates could be as much as 10 times as high as the official number, and that wouldn't surprise me at all.
 
I feel like it's 2015 and people on this forum are claiming NYCFC has a chance long after it as over.
It is almost impossible to overstate the extent to which NY is an outlier. We are way off the charts, and nothing brings us back close to the rest of the country.

Ulrich said:
Florida has a high number of ICU units and capacity because of their aging population - they aren’t near capacity because their peak isn’t until the middle of May. If they’re already past 20k infections, with 3-5 weeks to go, then the numbers will ramp up significantly, especially in the land of nursing homes.
Click to expand...
The same projections that say Florida will peak in mid-May project 4,800 Florida deaths by August 4. NY has 11,500 deaths today, and 14,500 projected by August 4. Those August projections might be low for both, but it's almost impossible for Florida to come close to catching up with New York. We're not even in the same universe.

Ulrich said:
Many states are doing “well” because they’re not testing with any concentration.
Click to expand...

Assume that (1) the rest of the country were testing at NY state levels, and (2) that all the people the rest of the country is not testing are infected and dying at the same levels as those tested.
The second half of that is a ridiculously unfair and even stupid assumption, by the way, but I'll bend 2x over backwards to prove my point. It basically assumes that the rest of the country is doing an extremely poor job of deciding who to test. It almost requires that the rest of the country intentionally test a lot of people with no or minimal symptoms while ignoring a substantial number of actual cases. But let's run with it.

The adjusted USA x-NY numbers would be:
Cases/1M: 4,216
Deaths/1M 166
Here are the NY State figures at this actual level of testing:
Cases/1M: 10,941
Deaths/1M 591

For reference, the actual reported USA x-NY figures are:
Cases/1M: 1,380
Deaths/1M 55

Again, it's virtually impossible for the rest of the country to reach a NY level of cases or deaths. Assume whatever you want about testing levels, or when peaks hit, or underestimating cases or deaths or projections. You cannot overstate how badly NY state has been hit by this virus. Nobody else is close no matter how you manipulate or massage the numbers.

ZYanksRule said:
So many people have said they are 99% sure they had it, but never got tested. There was reporting early on in the pandemic that our infection rates could be as much as 10 times as high as the official number, and that wouldn't surprise me at all.
Click to expand...
Are these the same people who claim they had it from November to February? The first half of that time period is way before the viruses left China in any significant numbers, and even before it penetrated China to any substantial effect. As for the January-February cases, it would be quite a miracle that so many people had the virus in those months yet hospitalizations, intubations, and deaths did not increase until late March.

I myself had the "mystery flu" from January to February. A week of high fever, headaches and body aches, followed by 3+ weeks of a persistent non-productive cough. I tested negative for the flu that first week and at the end of the period I had borderline low blood oxygen. Ahaa!! Except nobody else got sick. Not my family, and nobody who worked closely with me, while I took almost no precautions except the de minimis hand over mouth for a cough or sneeze that entire time. And the cough went away with antibiotics. I didn't have Covid-19, and neither did 99.9% of the people who think they did before mid-March. What I almost certainly had was the flu, likely a variant that the test didn't recognize, followed by an opportunistic bacterial infection in my throat and/or sinuses. Just like all the people who have self-diagnosed with Covid-19.
 
mgarbowski said:
I feel like it's 2015 and people on this forum are claiming NYCFC has a chance long after it as over.
It is almost impossible to overstate the extent to which NY is an outlier. We are way off the charts, and nothing brings us back close to the rest of the country.


The same projections that say Florida will peak in mid-May project 4,800 Florida deaths by August 4. NY has 11,500 deaths today, and 14,500 projected by August 4. Those August projections might be low for both, but it's almost impossible for Florida to come close to catching up with New York. We're not even in the same universe.



Assume that (1) the rest of the country were testing at NY state levels, and (2) that all the people the rest of the country is not testing are infected and dying at the same levels as those tested.
The second half of that is a ridiculously unfair and even stupid assumption, by the way, but I'll bend 2x over backwards to prove my point. It basically assumes that the rest of the country is doing an extremely poor job of deciding who to test. It almost requires that the rest of the country intentionally test a lot of people with no or minimal symptoms while ignoring a substantial number of actual cases. But let's run with it.

The adjusted USA x-NY numbers would be:
Cases/1M: 4,216
Deaths/1M 166
Here are the NY State figures at this actual level of testing:
Cases/1M: 10,941
Deaths/1M 591

For reference, the actual reported USA x-NY figures are:
Cases/1M: 1,380
Deaths/1M 55

Again, it's virtually impossible for the rest of the country to reach a NY level of cases or deaths. Assume whatever you want about testing levels, or when peaks hit, or underestimating cases or deaths or projections. You cannot overstate how badly NY state has been hit by this virus. Nobody else is close no matter how you manipulate or massage the numbers.


Are these the same people who claim they had it from November to February? The first half of that time period is way before the viruses left China in any significant numbers, and even before it penetrated China to any substantial effect. As for the January-February cases, it would be quite a miracle that so many people had the virus in those months yet hospitalizations, intubations, and deaths did not increase until late March.

I myself had the "mystery flu" from January to February. A week of high fever, headaches and body aches, followed by 3+ weeks of a persistent non-productive cough. I tested negative for the flu that first week and at the end of the period I had borderline low blood oxygen. Ahaa!! Except nobody else got sick. Not my family, and nobody who worked closely with me, while I took almost no precautions except the de minimis hand over mouth for a cough or sneeze that entire time. And the cough went away with antibiotics. I didn't have Covid-19, and neither did 99.9% of the people who think they did before mid-March. What I almost certainly had was the flu, likely a variant that the test didn't recognize, followed by an opportunistic bacterial infection in my throat and/or sinuses. Just like all the people who have self-diagnosed with Covid-19.
Click to expand...
It’s ok, go ahead and be an ostrich with your head in the ground. There’s a shit ton of asymptomatic people releasing viral loads that even China is finally coming around to admit is happening and wasn’t included in their number.

The rest of your tirade of assumptions doesn’t deserve a response if you’re gonna sling accusations of “stupid assumptions” while at the same time claiming folks have said they were sick in November.
 
21Architect said:
You can not be serious
Click to expand...

Seriously, all of you attacking my statement need a refresher on reading comprehension.

The rates are not believable for either. That’s binary.

Nowhere do I ever allude to the rates being the same. Never.

That’s just a Fcking lack of reading comprehension because a few of you have nothing else to complain about now that it’s apparent the league isn’t restarting and all of the handwringing about possible scenarios was a waste of time.

But yes, continue to ask if I was serious.
 
mgarbowski said:
I feel like it's 2015 and people on this forum are claiming NYCFC has a chance long after it as over.
It is almost impossible to overstate the extent to which NY is an outlier. We are way off the charts, and nothing brings us back close to the rest of the country.


The same projections that say Florida will peak in mid-May project 4,800 Florida deaths by August 4. NY has 11,500 deaths today, and 14,500 projected by August 4. Those August projections might be low for both, but it's almost impossible for Florida to come close to catching up with New York. We're not even in the same universe.



Assume that (1) the rest of the country were testing at NY state levels, and (2) that all the people the rest of the country is not testing are infected and dying at the same levels as those tested.
The second half of that is a ridiculously unfair and even stupid assumption, by the way, but I'll bend 2x over backwards to prove my point. It basically assumes that the rest of the country is doing an extremely poor job of deciding who to test. It almost requires that the rest of the country intentionally test a lot of people with no or minimal symptoms while ignoring a substantial number of actual cases. But let's run with it.

The adjusted USA x-NY numbers would be:
Cases/1M: 4,216
Deaths/1M 166
Here are the NY State figures at this actual level of testing:
Cases/1M: 10,941
Deaths/1M 591

For reference, the actual reported USA x-NY figures are:
Cases/1M: 1,380
Deaths/1M 55

Again, it's virtually impossible for the rest of the country to reach a NY level of cases or deaths. Assume whatever you want about testing levels, or when peaks hit, or underestimating cases or deaths or projections. You cannot overstate how badly NY state has been hit by this virus. Nobody else is close no matter how you manipulate or massage the numbers.


Are these the same people who claim they had it from November to February? The first half of that time period is way before the viruses left China in any significant numbers, and even before it penetrated China to any substantial effect. As for the January-February cases, it would be quite a miracle that so many people had the virus in those months yet hospitalizations, intubations, and deaths did not increase until late March.

I myself had the "mystery flu" from January to February. A week of high fever, headaches and body aches, followed by 3+ weeks of a persistent non-productive cough. I tested negative for the flu that first week and at the end of the period I had borderline low blood oxygen. Ahaa!! Except nobody else got sick. Not my family, and nobody who worked closely with me, while I took almost no precautions except the de minimis hand over mouth for a cough or sneeze that entire time. And the cough went away with antibiotics. I didn't have Covid-19, and neither did 99.9% of the people who think they did before mid-March. What I almost certainly had was the flu, likely a variant that the test didn't recognize, followed by an opportunistic bacterial infection in my throat and/or sinuses. Just like all the people who have self-diagnosed with Covid-19.
Click to expand...
The good Dr. G has read reports from epidemiologists saying that the virus had to be in the NYC area and circulating by mid-to-late January at the latest for the pandemic to have spread the way it has.

A week ago, a report on a genetic analysis of the virus said it was circulating in NY by mid-February.

In Washington state, the flu study went back and tested random nasal swabs that it had collected and found COVID-positive samples from asymptomatic people well before the first official positive test.

While I agree with your general premise that more people suspect they had it than could have had it during those periods, many people really did. There is a substantial non-zero chance that you were one of them, and a substantial, non-zero chance that someone in your household contracted it too and was asymptomatic.
 
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