we had 3 chances where the xG had to be 1 for each?
Our
total xG for the game was 0.96 at Opta, 0.8 at FBRef, and 0.67 at ASA.
K
Kjbert I'm not picking on you in the following. This is about soccer fans worldwide and generally on this forum.
The best chance of the day was the Chichirito's goal at 49% per Opta. Our best was Magno's header 3 minutes in at 35%. Someone in the chat said he should have scored, because some always says that in the chat a few times every game. Somehow baseball fans have the self-control not to complain every at bat that ends in an out because they appreciate basic odds and understand that MLB on base percentage is just above 30%, that failure happens more than success, but soccer fans
repeatedly say "he should have scored there" on 1-in-3 chances.
Our next best chance was Heber at the end at 31% and everything else was 7% or lower. Even penalty kicks are scored only about 70% of the time. Why would anyone think a game would have multiple live play chances that probably should have gone in, in a game when the general consensus is the team was lethargic and the attack was weak due to poor outside back play? Why do people expect every decent live play chance to go in? And don't tell me fans are irrational or it's human nature or I'm asking too much because baseball fans are better than this, and there's no excuse for soccer fans to be worse. You
should expect your best player to miss half of his sitters or more, because outside of very rare chances with open goals and no defenders close, most don't go in. It's just how it is.
Last year MLS players attempted 11,892 shots and scored 1,236 goals (excluding own goals) which means they scored on 10% of all shots taken. That's 3 times worse than baseball on base success, and baseball is famous because everyone: management, players , and fans, understands routine failure is part of the game. Meanwhile in soccer, when you add in whiffs and the times when the guy didn't even pull the trigger, and the soccer success rate on all chances is clearly below 10%. How can 10% of all shots go in and people still think there are multiple shots a game where the expected success rate was above 50%? And you all are smart fans who can analyze a game well. I don't get why people are content to ignore basic odds. If there were a baseball fan who said "he should have gotten on base there" every time a player failed to do so, or even a few times every game, it would become a running joke, because everyone knows players only get on base 30% overall and a bare handful of the best exceed 40%. The soccer average* is 10% and the most efficient shooters convert
below 30% of shots taken, but smart soccer fans repeatedly believe and say the opposite. I really don't understand it. Why don't people know and accept this? It's not even advanced stats. It's the basic ratio of shots taken and shots made that happens every game in front of your eyes. The overwhelming number of shots don't go in, and should not be expected to go in.
Everyone please adjust your priors. Almost every time you think "he should have scored there" you are probably wrong. Converting a shot in soccer is harder than getting on base in baseball. Assume failure and be happy when it doesn't happen.**
* I checked and Premier League is also 10% average overall and nobody above 30% so it's not some MLS outlier thing. Both leagues limited to players with a reasonable minimum number of minutes and shots taken.
** This rant has been building for a while. I realize it's a bit obnoxious. But dammit this bugs me.