NYCFC Season Discussion 2024: The Definition of NYCFC is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over and Getting the Same Result

[mgarbowski]

Area 15
One of the short hand stats I sometime look at in MLS is whether a team has a 15-goal scorer. Like all shorthands it's imperfect but I like that (1) usually about 1/3 of MLS teams have one, and (2) it is a rough proxy for someone who averages a goal every other game, given a 34 game season and the likelihood that your best scorer plays as much as possible but still sits out a game here and there for knocks, international duty, or rest.

NYCFC has had 15 goal scorer most years. This shows NYCFC's highest goal scorer each year, plus where the entire team ranked in MLS for goals scored:
Year Player G Team Scoring Rank
2015 Villa 18 6/20
2016 Villa 23 1/20
2017 Villa 22 5/22
2018 Villa 14 9/23
2019 Heber 15 2/24
2020 Taty 6 7/26
2021 Taty 19 3/27
2022 Taty 13 7/28
2023 Pereira 6 26/29.
2024 Santi, Martinez 8 (projected 11), 14/29.

In 2018 Vila played only 20 games due to injuries and Spanish team duty. 2020 featured Covid, a short season, Heber getting hurt and Mitrita going closer to home. In 2022 Taty played just 17 games before his loan. 2023 and 2024 have no excuse.

Currently, 8 players on 5 MLS teams project to at least 15 goals, with 2 each on RSL and LAFC. Another 10 players could make it with a slight hot streak over the final quarter of the season. Probably a few will. The teams with the most likely 15G scorers rank 4, 5, 6, 19, 21, and 24 in the Supporter Shield table. It's not a guarantee, and you can succeed by committee, but having reliable one guy helps.

Back to NYCFC, Martinez has contributed an astonishing 0.85 G/90, largely a result of late explosion against San Jose and low minutes overall, but even if he kept up that pace he would have to play almost all the remaining minutes to hit 15. Martinez has not played 90 minutes all year. He averages only 50 minutes per game in games when he does play. Limit it further to the last 14 games when he started playing more regularly and he still sat out 3 games, averaging 59 minutes if he plays and just 47 overall. Is it fitness, strength, stamina? It is not that Cushing does not rate him. He's clearly our first choice striker. But he only plays kind of sort of most of the time, barely. He cannot step up and be the foundation if he's on just a bit more than half the minutes.

Meh
Speaking of half: NYC is in a 3-way tie for 14th-16th most goals scored, so basically as median as possible in a 29 team league. It's an improvement over last year, but far from the club's historic norms shown above. Even the 2015 club put goals in the net pretty well. We are 2 years into the Lee/Deila era. Blame it one one or the other or both or the rain. Together they have given us the worst 2 years of offense in club history.

This is NYCFC's 10th season. Here is how 2024 NYCFC ranks against other NYCFC years in per game stats:
Goals 8th
xG 6th
Shots 8th
SoT 9th
GA 6th
xGA 8th
Pts 7th
xPts 7th
GD 7th
xGD 7th

It's just not great. 2024 NYCFC is not above the NYCFC median in any category. This team is really just a light improvement over 2023 in many stats. Goals and xG are both up nicely but almost fully offset by worse xGA, and that the GA is not similarly rough is all due to Freese. Another difference is that last year they played 24 games with a 0 or 1 goal GD and won only 5. This year 17 so far and won 6. I have a post above in the thread showing that the 2023 edition of NYCFC was both bad and unlucky. NYCFC 2023 earned almost 8 fewer Points than stats would predict. So far the 2024 edition is pretty average on both counts: it has 1 point more than stats predict, and the league rank for key metrics are Goals 14th, xG 12th, Goals Allowed 6th, xG Allowed 12th, GD 10th, xGD 10th, Points 9th, xPoints 10th. The team sits right on the edge of the top-third and middle third of the league and that's right here it deserves to be.

Mama Said ...
NYCFC coach records in knockout competitions, treating 2-game rounds as a single unit, and resolving ties as a W or L based on who advanced:

Kreis 0-1
Vieira 0-5
Torrent 2-4
Deila 10-5
Cushing 5-4

Torrent and Deila each benefited from a USOC win against a lower division opponent, something neither Kreis or Vieira could take advantage of.
Deila was crazy streaky. Won his first 2 (San Carlos and Toronto in MLS Is Back) with Tigres CCL suspended. Then he lost 4 straight: Portland MIB, Orlando Playoffs, Tigres conclusion and Pumas Leagues Cup. Then 6 wins: Atlanta, Revs, Philly Portland, Santos, and Comunicaciones. Lost to Seattle in CCL final, and ends with USOC wins vs. Rochester and the Revs. Streaky can win Cups.

Cushing has a .500 record in the regular season (28-28-24) and a winning record at the moment in knockout competitions after beating Tigres and pending the next Leagues Cup round against Columbus. Results aside, I think Cushing coaches more aggressively in knockout competitions (especially Away), and the club benefits from that.

NYCFC all time record in spot kick shootouts: 4-4
From 2015-2020: 0-4
From 2021-2024: 4-0 (one of these not in a knockout round).

Somebody Post That Michael Scott Quote When NYCFC Goes On The Road
From 2016 through 2020 NYCFC were road beasts by MLS standards, with 1.325 PPG over those 5 years. Exclude 2018 and it was 1.429 over 4 years with 2 more wins than losses even. Road form slipped to 1.0 PPG in 2021, was OK in 2022, and abysmal last year. This year they are at 1.0 PPG again.

The consensus among many fans is that NYCFC is too defensive on the road, and needs to attack more aggressively. Using Shots Taken as a rough proxy for how attack minded a team is, I checked every team in MLS over 2023-2024 and compared how many shots per game each takes at home and on the road. Then I sorted for the biggest percentage drop in Away Shots against Home Shots per game. Next to that you can also see the drop in Goals and xGoals Home and Away. But I think Shots Taken is the best, if still imperfect proxy for how much you attack.

NYCFC has the biggest percentage drop of shots taken Away when compared to home, with similar falloffs in Goals and xG.

Then I wanted to see how previous NYC teams did under other coaches, so I ran the same drill for 2021 (Deila), 2019 (Torrent), and 2017 (Vieira).



Generally NYCFC was middle of the pack on this measurement until now. 2021 was odd in that the shots taken difference is average, but the Goals and xGoals both fell off considerably There are many factors that can affect this difference between Home and Away shooting rates, but on the whole it's fair to say the numbers are at least consistent with what a lor of people have been seeing.

 

[mgarbowski]

We've blown umpteen leads and dropped numerous points from winning or tied positions. Other folks are keeping track and you can find the specifics in other posts. Everyone knows it; there is little consensus on the why and a lot of options, including: undisciplined defense, Nick's subs, Nick gets too defensive trying to close games, and lack of depth. Even if you default to AOTA people will disagree on the mix.
I don't have an answer (well maybe, kind of), but I will note:

Defense

Defense concerns me. Our shots allowed are the highest since 2015, and got even worse in the last 10 games. We rank 19th in MLS.
The xGA is the worst since 2016 and ranks 18th. The GA is 7th, but it is all Freese. Even good keepers are streaky. He's on a great run, probably better than his median. Note how he was not quite as good in the first 7 games. Some shots cannot be stopped by anyone. It would be great to reduce shots allowed and xGA to at least league average or somewhat above so everything does not depend on him being amazing.

That was June. We did improve Shots Allowed and now rank 12th, and xGA now ranks 15th. But the GA slipped to 9th, and no, it's not all last night. Freese is still good but could not maintain the amazing form he has at midseason.

Scoring
We rank 17th in goals scored. If you project out 2024 would be the third worst NYCFC team in goals scored; third worst for being shut out; third or fourth worst for scoring at least 2 goals in a game, and second worst for scoring 3 or more. Fewer goals and fewer multi-goal games means small cushions means a mistake more easily has a cost.

The Indispensable Man
After the San Jose game I figured out how much more NYCFC scored when Jones and/or Martinez were on the field. Then I kind of stopped tracking after Jones got hurt, and with Martinez starting I figured there would be very few minutes when he was off the field so why bother. But earlier this week I theorized that one reason for the late failures is we are missing Jones and Martinez starts, and the latter never plays a full 90 and rarely even 70 or 80. So maybe our late game subs cannot close out because our best subs aren't available to sub and come off the field. There's no definitive answer to that, but I did go back and update the Martinez effect, and expand it a bit, to include Goals Allowed.

NYC scores 2.08 G/90 with Martinez on the field and 1.07 when he is not.
Opponents score 1.18 G/90 with Martinez on the field and 1.44 when he is not.

The Goals Allowed numbers come to 9 extra goals over a full season. I didn’t expect that and it could be random but it exists.

Then I wondered whether the offensive boost is really just a result of Alonso's own goal contributions. So I calculated how many goals other players score when he is and is not on the field:
NYC scores 1.09 G/90 non-Martinez goals with Martinez on the field and 1.07 when he is not.

That might seem meaningless until you consider that when he plays there are only 5 other offensive players (2 forwards, a 10 and 2 wingers) but when he is on the bench there are, in theory, 6 others. Basically, whoever replaces Martinez up front has an effective goal contribution of 0.
I'll save gbservis the trouble and remind everyone that the club paid $0 in fees for Martinez and Jones, and $23M for our other forwards, not even including Talles Magno.

Martinez is not quite my theory of life, the universe and everything, but yeah, we are now losing games late because he starts, does not play to 90, and everybody else is worse when he is not on the field, on both offense and defense.

 

[mgarbowski]

To borrow a hockey concept:
When Martinez is playing NYCFC GD is +10. When he is out it is -6.

 

[mgarbowski]

If you deleted Martinez’s goals we would be -1 GD when he plays and-6 when he doesn’t. Meaning we’re better off playing Martinez even if a magic force field kept him from ever scoring over replacing him with literally anyone else who could, in theory, score.

 

[mgarbowski]

NYCFC has just one outright game win since July 3, covering 11 games in MLS and Leagues Cup play. Ignoring shootout results, their record is 1-3-7 over that period, with just 14 goals for (1.27 Avg) and 18 conceded.

The remaining schedule is quite tough. There are 4 Home and 3 Away, but the Home games face the 2 best Away teams in MLS in Miami and Cincinnati, plus a Philadelphia team that somehow has the 9th best Away record in MLS. On paper and by the numbers, the game away to DC United up next is easier than those 3 home games. The 4-game stretch of PHI(H), MIA(H), RB(A), and CIN(H), has an opponent H/A adjusted PPG of 1.92. It would be very helpful to grab the first Away win in nearly 4 months in DC on the 14th.

 

[canchon]

NYCFC has just one outright game win since July 3, covering 11 games in MLS and Leagues Cup play. Ignoring shootout results, their record is 1-3-7 over that period, with just 14 goals for (1.27 Avg) and 18 conceded.

Over those 11 games, NYCFC has had only two home games (Queretaro and Chicago) and one quasi-home game (Tigres). That is a brutal home/away split.

It doesnt justify only one win though in 11 games. What is so weird is their one win was against Tigres, arguably the hardest of the 11 games. Go figure.

One win in eleven games is brutal no matter how you choose to explain it. This is why there is little confidence in the remaining games, especially with the hard schedule.

 

[mgarbowski]

Over those 11 games, NYCFC has had only two home games (Queretaro and Chicago) and one quasi-home game (Tigres). That is a brutal home/away split.

It doesnt justify only one win though in 11 games. What is so weird is their one win was against Tigres, arguably the hardest of the 11 games. Go figure.

One win in eleven games is brutal no matter how you choose to explain it. This is why there is little confidence in the remaining games, especially with the hard schedule.

All correct. It was a tough H/A split, but still should have won more. Minimum expectation I think would be to beat Queretaro aand Chicago at Home, and win 1 or 2 Away as well. Austin, Chicago, Atlanta and Orlando have an average Home PPG of 1.33. New England at Home is just 1.08, and all we needed a shootout to prevail.

 

[canchon]

All correct. It was a tough H/A split, but still should have won more. Minimum expectation I think would be to beat Queretaro aand Chicago at Home, and win 1 or 2 Away as well. Austin, Chicago, Atlanta and Orlando have an average Home PPG of 1.33. New England at Home is just 1.08, and all we needed a shootout to prevail.

Yep, QRO and CHI at home should have been wins, along with Austin (they are terrible and NYCFC was winning and carried play in that game - they gave up two goals to Zardes who hadn’t scored all season) plus probably one more away game.

Those “wins” (QRO aside) would have given NYCFC eight more points and would be comfortably in fourth with 47 points, five up on RBNJ. Instead we are where we are and now have no margin of error over a very tough remaining schedule. Bet on NYCFC to not finish in the top four.

 

[LionNYC]

If we can’t close out matches, we can’t close out a season with a trophy.

 

[FootyLovin]

Can someone please explain in some kind of non-emotional or non-I-think-it-therefore-it-is logic why our team really is the team that won 8 out of 9 in late spring?

Or for the pessimists out there, what is the logic that we really are the team who has been unable to win in our last 11?

Absent something convincing I'm really tempted to believe the mean. We are what our record says we are.

 

[mgarbowski]

Can someone please explain in some kind of non-emotional or non-I-think-it-therefore-it-is logic why our team really is the team that won 8 out of 9 in late spring?

Or for the pessimists out there, what is the logic that we really are the team who has been unable to win in our last 11?

Absent something convincing I'm really tempted to believe the mean. We are what our record says we are.

We are what you think, IMO. We're a solidly mid team. The streakiness seems a bit extreme, but overall we are good enough to win slightly more than we lose, and get a normal number of draws. Our offense is subpar; the field defense is exactly median, and the goalkeeping is very good and sometimes great.

 

[moogoo]

Can someone please explain in some kind of non-emotional or non-I-think-it-therefore-it-is logic why our team really is the team that won 8 out of 9 in late spring?

Or for the pessimists out there, what is the logic that we really are the team who has been unable to win in our last 11?

Absent something convincing I'm really tempted to believe the mean. We are what our record says we are.

my add on to what mgarbowski said is that we are very young. our starting XI is one of the youngest, if not the youngest in the league, i think? with youth comes inconsistency due to the mental side of things. we have a talented squad and i think that shows when we can play toe to toe against the best in the league, but losing from leading positions and not closing out games comes down to focus and discipline. that is unfortunately a symptom of youth.

we still need more depth and better performing players (either from the current squad or new signings), but I think we have a decent foundation to build on. i don't expect an MLS cup this year or even next, but I am hopeful it happens anyway because youthful inconsistency can go both ways. 1 win out of 11 can turn into all wins when it counts.

 

[413Blue]

Can someone please explain in some kind of non-emotional or non-I-think-it-therefore-it-is logic why our team really is the team that won 8 out of 9 in late spring?

Or for the pessimists out there, what is the logic that we really are the team who has been unable to win in our last 11?

Absent something convincing I'm really tempted to believe the mean. We are what our record says we are.

Our great stretch in the Spring started during 5 match home stand where we didn't have to travel for over a month. We had 3 road wins as well, but against a struggling Toronto and at New England who was in a dreadful rut at the time, and Philly in the middle of a 1 win in 17 match stretch.

Basically, I think the scheduling and form of our opponents was just very optimal for us to go on a good run at that time.

 

[mgarbowski]

my add on to what mgarbowski said is that we are very young. our starting XI is one of the youngest, if not the youngest in the league, i think? with youth comes inconsistency due to the mental side of things. we have a talented squad and i think that shows when we can play toe to toe against the best in the league, but losing from leading positions and not closing out games comes down to focus and discipline. that is unfortunately a symptom of youth.

we still need more depth and better performing players (either from the current squad or new signings), but I think we have a decent foundation to build on. i don't expect an MLS cup this year or even next, but I am hopeful it happens anyway because youthful inconsistency can go both ways. 1 win out of 11 can turn into all wins when it counts.

My add on to your is to note the bulk of our youth with potentially most of the talent is in the front lines and that is where we are weakest.
Defense also needs to improve but in theory that's more coachable.
SO I agree there is cause for optimism, or at least reasonable hope.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I have another question:

Does anyone think Nick Cushing is getting the most he can out of this roster? That was a complaint last year, and I'm seeing it again this year. Feels like we should be better than we are -- our roster is good, but we're not seeing results from some of these guys. Maybe they explode next year, but I continue to question whether Cushing is the right guy to develop these players and make this team greater than the sum of its parts.

Ronny got he most he could out of the team. I think Patrick and Dome did, too. I don't think Nick has that in his tool chest.

 

[moogoo]

I have another question:

Does anyone think Nick Cushing is getting the most he can out of this roster? That was a complaint last year, and I'm seeing it again this year. Feels like we should be better than we are -- our roster is good, but we're not seeing results from some of these guys. Maybe they explode next year, but I continue to question whether Cushing is the right guy to develop these players and make this team greater than the sum of its parts.

Ronny got he most he could out of the team. I think Patrick and Dome did, too. I don't think Nick has that in his tool chest.

I think that question is difficult to answer with this roster. Most of our new players are in the attack and with limited positions, we rarely see half of them. Even when we do, by what measure do we use to rate their development? These guys are young and mostly signed based on potential and not actual, proven performances.

Out of the known players (e.g., sands, martins, parks, santi, gray), I think we've mostly seem about average performances from all with certain games standing out as high level performances. But, I think Santi has grown and so has Gray, to a certain extent. How much of that is Nick and how much of that is experience and maturity? Who knows. But, I think if Nick were a better development coach, we would and should see consistently higher level performances from the likes of Sands and Parks. Martins, I think is already at his ceiling and it is what it is.

It will be interesting to see what happens next season. A lot of these young guys are still growing into the team and the league. Sometimes it takes a full season to really adapt. At least next year, we'll be able to compare vs this year's performances. If Nick can really develop players, we should see that improvement next year. If we don't, then I think that's a pretty clear indication that he is not the coach for the transfer strategy the club wants.

 

[gbservis]

We are what you think, IMO. We're a solidly mid team. The streakiness seems a bit extreme, but overall we are good enough to win slightly more than we lose, and get a normal number of draws. Our offense is subpar; the field defense is exactly median, and the goalkeeping is very good and sometimes great.

Our record against the Eastern Conference validates that we are solidly mid. We beat up on the bottom-table teams and do okay against the top-of-the-table teams looking only at games against teams in our conference our record breaks down as follows:

(W-D-L)
Top 7 East (3-2-4)
Bottom 8 East (7-4-1)

Given our record against the teams we will meet in the playoffs, I can't see any reason to call us favorites but there is equally no reason to rule us out. We are solidly mid as mgarbowski said. I do think there is data to support the idea that we are an incredibly shallow team.

Our bench players, particularly the attackers, are nowhere near as good as our starters at pressing, creating goals or even running a functional offense to maintain possession and kill off a game. We struggle late in games when the subs come in and in games that require squad rotation. If all the core starters are healthy come playoff time we could overperform our record because our bench depth would play less of a role in the playoffs as we won't be rotating. On the other hand, any major injury could completely sink us.

 

[Kenny]

One young player that Cushing does not seem to be making any headway with, as far as development, is Jovan. Don't know if a language barrier is part of it or what. Maybe it is too early to say. Mitja as well. Malachi came in and immediately blew everyone's socks off but I'm not ready to credit Cushing with that, other than making him a starter pretty quickly over other more expensive players.

 

[mgarbowski]

Ronny got he most he could out of the team. I think Patrick and Dome did, too.

I think this is pretty much consensus, but It's interesting what the fanbase chooses to remember.

Roughly half the same fanbase was calling for Ronny's head with 5 games left in the 2021 season. To that point his 2020-2021 PPG was a very so-so 1.51 with a 32-33 year old Maxi, plus at times some combination of Heber, Shradi, Mitrita and Taty, plus Tinnerholm and the Callens-Chanot CB pairing and a sometimes USMNT goalkeeper. He was saved, and became a hero, because Taty went on a run of 10 goals in 8 games and we won 2 spot kick shootouts.
Vieira did probably more than any coach to build NYCFC into a consistent regular season force, but his playoff and USOC record was abysmal.
Dome torched the best first half season in team history in 2018, then had the best full season in 2019, capped by an inexcusable first round playoff loss due to mental errors by our back line including Chanot while the offense produced just 1 goal.

Behind Deila, Cushing has the next best record of any NYCFC coach in playoff and tournament competitions. And yet his regular season record is nearly as bad as Vieira's knockout record. OTOH, he is also the only one who had to deal with a group of forwards whose average age is 21, which is an improvement over the nearly empty roster David Lee gave him in 2023. On the gripping hand, the only forwards who improved under him have been Pereira and Martinez, while Bakrar, Talles, Andrade, Wolf, Ojeda, Fernandez and Jovan have mostly stagnated.

I think there is a lot to be said for making the regular season successful and fun for fans, and NYCFC is in a second straight year of not providing very much fun above the baseline. I think that is mostly David Lee's fault, but I'm not very confident in Cushing either. And as for how fans remember you, I think you get credit if you win a trophy, but otherwise fans prefer winning a lot of regular season games over some decent and even unexpected tournament runs that don't end with hardware.

 

[moogoo]

I think this is pretty much consensus, but It's interesting what the fanbase chooses to remember.

Roughly half the fanbase was calling for Ronny's head with 5 games left in the 2021 season. To that point his 2020-2021 PPG was a very so-so 1.51 with a 32-33 year old Maxi, plus at time all of Heber, Shradi, Mitrita and Taty, plus Tinnerholm and the Callens-Chanot CB pairing. He was saved, and became a hero, because Taty went on a run of 10 goals in 8 games and we won 2 spot kick shootouts.
Vieira did probably more than any coach to build NYCFC into a consistent regular season force, but his playoff and USOC record was abysmal.
Dome torched the best first half season in team history in 2018, then had the best full season in 2019, capped by an inexcusable first round playoff loss due to mental errors by our back line including Chanot while the offense produced just 1 goal.

Behind Deila, Cushing has the next best record of any NYCFC coach in playoff and tournament competitions. And yet his regular season record is nearly as bad a Vieira's knockoout record. OTOH, he is also the only one who had to deal with a group of forwards whose average age is 21, which is an improvement over the nearly empty roster David Lee gave him in 2023. On the gripping hand, the only forwards who improved under him have been Pereira and Martinez, while Bakrar, Talles, Andrade, Wolf, Ojeda, Fernandez and Jovan have mostly stagnated.

I think there is a lot to be said for making the regular season successful and fun for fans, and NYCFC is in a second straight year of not providing very much fun above the baseline. I think that is mostly David Lee's fault, but I'm not very confident in Cushing either. And as for how fans remember you, I think you get credit if you win a trophy, but otherwise fans prefer winning a lot of regular season games over some decent and even unexpected tournament runs that don't end with hardware.

agree with most everything here. not sure we can credit cushing for improving pereira and martinez. pereira was a clear talent from the first game he played and was mostly consistent in his performances. martinez has been somewhat consistent but it's hard to say if cushing improved him in any way or he's just playing at his level. cushing gets the nod for admitting that martinez is the starter rather than stubbornly sticking with a flailing bakrar.