NYCFC Season Discussion 2024: The Definition of NYCFC is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over and Getting the Same Result

One young player that Cushing does not seem to be making any headway with, as far as development, is Jovan. Don't know if a language barrier is part of it or what. Maybe it is too early to say. Mitja as well. Malachi came in and immediately blew everyone's socks off but I'm not ready to credit Cushing with that, other than making him a starter pretty quickly over other more expensive players.

Jovan looks out of shape and disinterested. I don't think you can pin either of those things on Cushing. The outfield did a great preview piece on Jovan, I recommend reading the whole thing (All He Does Is Score Goals) but the part that stands out to me is:

"The only aspect where Mijatović falls short as a striker is in stretching the defense. He rarely runs in behind the defense, instead opting to react to balls played into the channel rather than making movements to proactively dictate the pass. This deficiency can build stretches where he loses influence on the game, especially when service into his feet is disrupted and his off-ball movement fails to capitalize on or create space. Just a reminder, he’s only 18 freaking years old, so this aspect of his game will likely season with more experience and development."

Jovan doesn't fit our style. He doesn't press and he's not active in his off-ball movement. It would be interesting to know how the decision-makers who decided Jovan was our guy expected Cushing to help make him successful. Did they:

1. Expect Nick to teach Jovan to be more active in his movement, totally change the way he plays and develop him into playing the City way?
2. Expect Nick to change our system to maximize Jovans talents and try to build a system that fits the way Jovan naturally plays?
3. Not think about fit at all and just send him here because CFG wanted Jovan and our roster was the place they chose to put him?

All of those are pretty big asks for a coach. Jovan is an enigma for a number of reasons, I think you could more easily question Nick's development skills by pointing to guys like Ojeda and Fernandez. Both are very talented, both came in with skill sets that directly match our style of play and both nearly a season in still look hesitant and lost at times and struggle to link up and execute the offense.
 
I think there is a lot to be said for making the regular season successful and fun for fans, and NYCFC is in a second straight year of not providing very much fun above the baseline. I think that is mostly David Lee's fault, but I'm not very confident in Cushing either. And as for how fans remember you, I think you get credit if you win a trophy, but otherwise fans prefer winning a lot of regular season games over some decent and even unexpected tournament runs that don't end with hardware.
This is exactly the same reason why Dortmund parted ways with Terzic at the end of last season. He did great in cup runs but with the league he was mediocre and played with absolutely dreadful tactics. Even with the UCL runs and the cup win, it was still the regular season performance that led many to wish for something different. I can't see it being any different with Cushing and our fanbase.
 
Ronny got he most he could out of the team. I think Patrick and Dome did, too. I don't think Nick has that in his tool chest.
I think all of those teams for all of those coaches are roughly similar. Also, we're in a tournament league rather than a table league. So the difference between Ronny and Nick is that Ronny in a sense did this year's incredible spring run at just the right time in the tournament. Nick's team is about the same, but we're not (currently) in the form we were in the spring. But we're, as always, a good solid upper-middle table team, and if Nick can pull it all together at the right time we're good enough to make a good cup run. If we were a top of the table team I'd be more confident, but we at least have a chance to go deep in the cup tournament and not look silly doing it. Hopefully LOL
 
Some related stats.

If every game were just the first half, NYC would have 42 points and a +8 GD and sit 6th in the Shield. But RB would be first.
If every game were just the second half, NYC would have 32 points and a -4 GD and sit 24th in the Shield. RB would be ninth.
Oddly the first half result is just 2 more points better than reality but a 8-spot jump on the table. So many of the best teams are second half teams, because they have a productive bench.

Break the game into 15 minute segments and NYC's scoring goes, in order,
First Half 8-5, 4-3, 9-5
Second 4-9, 3-6, 13-9.
The second half is rough but the final 15 minute segment is very solid. Limited to the final 15 minutes (which is really 15 plus added time), NYC has both gained and lost 5 points.

Besides NYC, only Houston and LAFC have positive GD in each first half segment.
Cincinnati, Colorado, Crew, Miami and the Galaxy all have perfect second half segments.
NYCFC has scored first in 16 of its games, conceded first in 11, with one 0-0 draw.

The 16 first scores is behind only Houston with 17 and tied with the Galaxy for second.

NYC has scored in both halves 9 times, tied for spots 12th through 17th. IOW, mediocre.

But the biggest problem is probably not timing but that NYC has scored more than 2 goals just 3 times. 21 teams have more than that.
 
Seeing us not in there is shocking, though I guess it's just because we're never in a winning position to begin with... lol

...However seeing "Philadelphia Union - 22" is one of the best feelings in a long time lol.
I think it's mostly because of what's happened lately so the dropping points from winning positions feels like much more of a thing, just doesn't necessarily apply to the whole season.
 
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From season start through June 22, Bakrar had 1 goal in 1053 minutes in a starting role (0.09 goals per 90). His goals trailed his xG by -4.64, and his xPlace (comparing pre-shot xG to post-shot xG) was a terrible -3.05.

After the June 22 game against Nashville, Bakrar has 8 appearances in 9 MLS games but just 1 start. In that period, he has 3 goals in 198 MLS minutes and exceeds his xG by 1.69. His xPlace improved to -0.19. His xG/96 (ASA method) is 0.49 (Martinez is 0.52). Bakrar's G/96 is 1.13. Martinez is 0.75.

It's a small sample, and maybe he can't take the burden of starting. Or maybe his first half of the season was a very weird fluke of bad results.

But I don't think people realize how much his results have improved since then. Since June 22 Bakrar is the team's second leading scorer despite barely playing, in part because after Martinez there is a cliff among our offensive players who get minutes. Also during that time NYC has 11 points in 9 games. Martinez has 5 goals, Bakrar has 3, and the entirety of the rest of the roster has 7, of which 2 were PKs.

I know we don't play 2 strikers. But can we maybe try finding a way somehow to get both him and Martinez on the field considering nobody else is doing anything and Mounsef is actually showing signs of usefulness?
 
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I've been meaning to post this. I have absolute faith in Bakrar. I think he will turn out to be a solid acquisition for us and someone we are happy to rely upon in important moments.

I base this in part on his high xG to start the year - few players perform well above or below their xG for very long, and in this case Bakrar is already progressing to the mean.

I also love his work rate, especially on defense. He reminds me of Taty in the high press, and I think this is an important part of our ability to defend as a team.
 
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From season start through June 22, Bakrar had 1 goal in 1053 minutes in a starting role (0.09 goals per 90). His goals trailed his xG by -4.64, and his xPlace (comparing post shot xG) was a terrible -3.05.

After the June 22 game against Nashville, Bakrar has 8 appearances in 9 MLS games but just 1 start. In that period, he has 3 goals in 198 MLS minutes and exceeds his xG by 1.69. His xPlace improved to -0.19. His xG/96 (ASA method) is 0.49 (Martinez is 0.52). Bakrar's G/96 is 1.13. Martinez is 0.75.

It's a small sample, and maybe he can't take the burden of starting. Or maybe his first half of the season was a very weird fluke of bad results.

But I don't think people realize how much his results have improved since then. Since June 22 Bakrar is the team's second leading scorer despite barely playing, in part because after Martinez there is a cliff among our offensive players who get minutes. Also during that time NYC has 11 points in 9 games. Martinez has 5 goals, Bakrar has 3, and the entirety of the rest of the roster has 7, of which 2 were PKs.

I know we don't play 2 strikers. But can we maybe try finding a way somehow to get both him and Martinez on the field considering nobody else is doing anything and Mounsef is actually showing signs of usefulness?

It probably doesn't even need to be a formation change to two strikers. Martinez was billed as a winger coming in. I don't see why you couldn't play Bakrar at striker and Martinez on the wing. A lot of Martinez's goals have been cut inside, top-of-the-box, winger-type goals anyway.
 
I've been meaning to post this. I have absolute faith in Bakrar. I think he will turn out to be a solid acquisition for us and someone we are happy to rely upon in important moments.

I base this in part on his high xG to start the year - few players perform well above or below their xG for very long, and in this case Bakrar is already progressing to the mean.

I also love his work rate, especially on defense. He reminds me of Taty in the high press, and I think this is an important part of our ability to defend as a team.

I'm not at the absolute faith level, but he's shown me enough that I want to see more. He's earned more minutes than he's currently getting.
Before this stretch though, he was not especially unlucky. His xPlace number for 2023 through his last game as starter was -5.11. The next closest in MLS in the same period was -3.06. Nobody was close to as bad as he was. That's a 29 game period, and while I can't search every possible 29 game combination over time, I can say that since 2013 only 2 MLS players had a single full season with xPlace of -5.0 or worse: Patryk Klimala in 2021 and Joao Plata in 2017.

Bakrar was epically bad while starting. His shots were just terrible, judged both by placement and force. I don't know what changed to improve that. Maybe he's better off the bench against tired legs, or just needed the reset that came with getting benched, or the staff looked at film and helped him fix a flaw. But he is better and not just luckier. So let's see more.
It probably doesn't even need to be a formation change to two strikers. Martinez was billed as a winger coming in. I don't see why you couldn't play Bakrar at striker and Martinez on the wing. A lot of Martinez's goals have been cut inside, top-of-the-box, winger-type goals anyway.

That's what I was thinking.
 
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I'm not at the absolute faith level, but he's shown me enough that I want to see more. He's earned more minutes than he's currently getting.
Before this stretch though, he was not especially unlucky. His xPlace number for 2023 through his last game as starter was -5.11. The next closest in MLS in the same period was -3.06. Nobody was close to as bad as he was. That's a 29 game period, and while I can't search every possible 29 game combination over time, I can say that since 2013 only 2 MLS players had a single full season with xPlace of -5.0 or worse: Patryk Klimala in 2021 and Joao Plata in 2017.

Bakrar was epically bad while starting. His shots were just terrible, judged both by placement and force. I don't know what changed to improve that. Maybe he's better off the bench against tired legs, or just needed the reset that came with getting benched, or the staff looked at film and helped him fix a flaw. But he is better and not just luckier. So let's see more.


That's what I was thinking.

The downside to playing both Martinez and Bakrar is that you have no subs for ST at the end of games.

This isn't very optimistic but given that I don't see this team going anywhere in the playoffs along with Bakrar for the reasons you and Gotham Gator Gotham Gator mentioned above I'd like to see Ojeda get a consistent set of starts. Ojeda looks the most ready out of the expensive young guys. He plays, hard, tracks back, and is talented. His biggest limitation is that he is often slow in his decision-making. Give him a solid string of games to see if he can settle in, David Lee made this a development year by spending all our money on teenagers, might as well see if we can get something out of the guy who looks to be the best of the group.
 
Jovan has not shown anything to indicate that he's close enough to being an MLS-caliber player to warrant giving him any meaningful time right now. If we hadn't paid $8M for him he'd be on NYCFC II.
So much for the greatest scouting network in MLS… let alone the world
 
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