NYCFC Season Discussion 2024: The Definition of NYCFC is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over and Getting the Same Result

[SoupInNYC]

For probably 40% of the season I was pretty sure we would not reach 50 points.

What's wild is:

• This team has a decent chance to finish even or even above where the 2021 team finished in points.
• This team isn't nearly as good as the 2021 team.
• This team has the 3 starting midfielders from the 2021 team (Cup Final for sure would have been Parks, Sands, and Maxi if Parks was healthy), the same starting RB who has now improved his offensive game, the same LW who is now more dynamic, and a starting striker who could have scored more goals than Taty had he been starting the whole year.
• This team also has a better goalkeeper than it did in 2021 (IMO).

Now, some of the "isn't nearly as good as the 2021 team" may have more to do with other teams getting a lot better and so perhaps this team may be better than the 2021 team when comparing just the two, but maybe isn't nearly as good when you compare to the rest of the teams in the Eastern Conference and MLS as a whole.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Amazing stuff.

2021 WAS a better team. Let's remember that for most of the season its results lagged behind its underlying stats. There was every sense we could make a playoff run if we played well and got the results we'd earned. Not true of this year's team.

What are some other differences?

RW we have Wolf instead of Medina.
LB we have O'Toole/McFarlane instead of Gudi/Amundson.
CB we have Risa/Martins instead of Callens/Chanot (this is a big one).

 

[moogoo]

Amazing stuff.

2021 WAS a better team. Let's remember that for most of the season its results lagged behind its underlying stats. There was every sense we could make a playoff run if we played well and got the results we'd earned. Not true of this year's team.

What are some other differences?

RW we have Wolf instead of Medina.
LB we have O'Toole/McFarlane instead of Gudi/Amundson.
CB we have Risa/Martins instead of Callens/Chanot (this is a big one).

i agree the CBs are the very key difference. By then, Chanot and Callens had had what... 3 years to gel? We can only hope Risa/Martins can do the same, but pure defensive ability, aerial ability, and leadership, the former pair wins hands down at the moment.

Wolf and Medina is probably a like for like trade . Except Medina was better at tight space combinations imo.

Haven't seen enough of McFarlane to really say, but we know Gudi was capable of finding that critical service at just the right moment and was a free kick specialist. As much as he got burned on pace, I would probably still take Gudi.

 

[ZYanksRule]

What's wild is:

• This team has a decent chance to finish even or even above where the 2021 team finished in points.
• This team isn't nearly as good as the 2021 team.
• This team has the 3 starting midfielders from the 2021 team (Cup Final for sure would have been Parks, Sands, and Maxi if Parks was healthy), the same starting RB who has now improved his offensive game, the same LW who is now more dynamic, and a starting striker who could have scored more goals than Taty had he been starting the whole year.
• This team also has a better goalkeeper than it did in 2021 (IMO).

Now, some of the "isn't nearly as good as the 2021 team" may have more to do with other teams getting a lot better and so perhaps this team may be better than the 2021 team when comparing just the two, but maybe isn't nearly as good when you compare to the rest of the teams in the Eastern Conference and MLS as a whole.

We didn't think the 2021 team was that good until they went on their run in the playoffs. I'll never forget the anger in the fanbase with 6 games left in the season before they took off.

I'm not saying something similar is happening here because it almost certainly isn't, but looking back on hindsight, we weren't expecting a Cup run in 2021 until the New England game happened.

 

[SoupInNYC]

We didn't think the 2021 team was that good until they went on their run in the playoffs. I'll never forget the anger in the fanbase with 6 games left in the season before they took off.

I'm not saying something similar is happening here because it almost certainly isn't, but looking back on hindsight, we weren't expecting a Cup run in 2021 until the New England game happened.

Don't lump me in that 'we'.

I thought it was head and shoulders the best team in the East and the only team comparable to it that year was LAFC.

 

[ZYanksRule]

Don't lump me in that 'we'.

I thought it was head and shoulders the best team in the East and the only team comparable to it that year was LAFC.

Fair enough. I know the team had good underlying numbers and should have been better than it was in that regular season, but I don't think the vast majority of fans saw the Cup coming in 2021. I don't think I thought it was even a possibility until Philly's COVID news.

 

[moogoo]

I'm not saying something similar is happening here because it almost certainly isn't

don't make me say it again... don't tell me how to dream!

 

[mgarbowski]

Fair enough. I know the team had good underlying numbers and should have been better than it was in that regular season, but I don't think the vast majority of fans saw the Cup coming in 2021. I don't think I thought it was even a possibility until Philly's COVID news.

2021 was so frustrating for such along time for those of us who believed the team was good. It felt like the sports version of the investing adage that the market can afford to be wrong longer than you can afford to be right. There was just no way to prove the team was better to those would would not see. And honestly IMO winning 2 shootouts does not actually mean the team was good like that. But it worked.

But 2021 should have had 58-62 points and I still think this team is basically where it should be. As others note, it is defense, and the CB pairing. I remember so many times getting the warm fuzzies every time C&C snuffed a potential opposing opportunity without a shot.

Cushing says he expected this team to both score and concede more than last year because he has them playing more aggresively on the press and counters. They're giving up space behind and putting pressure on the back line and keeper.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843127029241188849

 

[LionNYC]

Some interesting data. We xGD perform the best when trailing, by a lot.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MLS/comments/1fymuzs/2024_match_time_and_xg_difference_when_leading

 

[SoupInNYC]

Some interesting data. We xGD perform the best when trailing, by a lot.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MLS/comments/1fymuzs/2024_match_time_and_xg_difference_when_leading

Most teams do. Justin wrote a great piece on this regarding game state and how it affects the underlying numbers.

When Expected Goals Don't Matter

New York City FC recorded a season high xG in an embarrassing 5-1 loss against the Philadelphia Union, but those numbers don’t mean what you think they do.

www.theoutfield.nyc

 

[mgarbowski]

What I find interesting about that data is not that NYC has its best xGD when behind, but that ahead and even are so close, with ahead being slightly better, arguably to an inconsequential degree. The narrative is that we turtle when ahead and that's why we concede so many game tying goals instead of opening to 2 goal leads, but that does not seem to be correct.
Though to be certain, you also need to know not just GD but the breakdown between xGF and xGA.

My data presentation comment is that I very much like the chart and how it conveys 6 pieces of information well, but sorting it by amount of time with the lead seems arbitrary and not helpful, and was probably chosen because it is mildly more eye-pleasing than the alternatives. Sorting by any one of the six data categories does not seem to be especially helpful so I would have gone with alphabetical.

 

[Cohibax]

If Bakrar/Mijatovic/Ojeda/Fernandez become super subs in the playoffs I honestly think the cup is ours. Can't count on Martinez and Santi to score all the goals to get us there.

 

[Gene]

If that's the case I sure hope the team has a Plan B in place.

 

[moogoo]

If Bakrar/Mijatovic/Ojeda/Fernandez become super subs in the playoffs I honestly think the cup is ours. Can't count on Martinez and Santi to score all the goals to get us there.

honestly don't think jovan sees the field in the playoffs. ojeda might get a start. fernandez might see some late game time.

i would love for them all to get on the field and have immediate, positive impact that results in goals galore. it would be incredible to see. i honestly hope we can make it deep enough into the playoffs that there's a chance of seeing jones come on as a sub too. though that's probably very unlikely even if he is cleared to play.

 

[CCMore]

So as it stands, the only teams we can play in the first round are Orlando or Cincy. I’m not sure which I’d rather have the team face. While we beat Cincy at RB last month, I’m not sure we can pull out one or probably two performances like that away at Cincy. Orlando has been on a hot streak with 6 wins in their last 7. If I had to choose an opponent I think I’d choose Orlando because their ceiling is lower. But they are definitely hot at the right time. The other side of the coin is it’s not much of a choice because a lot has to go wrong (right?) for us to play Cincy anyways. All this is to say let’s play for 4th because two home games are always better than one.

 

[canchon]

I can’t remember where I heard it but you have Cincy - a good team on a bad streak or Orlando - a more mediocre team on a hot streak.

You either have to have faith on one team’s bad streak continuing or a team regressing to their overall talent level.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I can’t remember where I heard it but you have Cincy - a good team on a bad streak or Orlando - a more mediocre team on a hot streak.

You either have to have faith on one team’s bad streak continuing or a team regressing to their overall talent level.

Or NYCFC's hot streak overpowering another team's hot streak!

 

[JayH]

Oddsmakers have us at 40-1 which is very bettor favorable! They don’t know us!

 

[mgarbowski]

Oddsmakers have us at 40-1 which is very bettor favorable! They don’t know us!

For the cup or just win the next round?

 

[JayH]

For the cup or just win the next round?

Cup. Way too long. Seattle is 14-1, RSL 16-1, Cincy 18-1. Before seeing any of these I would have guessed we would be 18-1 ish.