Is it just me, or does anyone else think this thread is delusional? There is little chance we are building a gigantic stadium.
I'm far from knowledgeable on this topic too, but it's probably fair to say that none of us really understand stadium economics. Things like the value of sellouts, or the cost/benefit of extra seats. For every $25 upper deck fan, there's tons of overhead to host him/her.
We have numerous games with under 25k in attendance. I would be shocked and disgusted if we tried to build a 40k stadium with those numbers. The place would look empty half the time.
Look at all the other stadiums being built. 19k in San Jose built for 100% sellout rate. Orlando is building a stadium 10k smaller than its current attendances. LAFC, maybe our closest comp, is building a 22k seater, IIRC. There are reasons for this that are both readily apparent and also implied.
I think it's far more likely we build a stadium designed for a 100% sellout rate. This is (1) great for marketing, (2) creates an excellent atmosphere, (3) drives up demand which drives up prices which increases the club's margins per butt in seat, (4) pushes more eyeballs to the TV, where just as much (?) money can be made. Plus I'm sure their are more or better reasons as well that people who know what theyre talking about could provide.
My best guess is the final count is in the 22-27k range, expandable to ~35k, and even that may be the high end. I'm also factoring in an announcement in the medium term of 3-5 years, after some slight attendance growth. This number may also be pretty dependent on location. Small Manhattan plot? Small end of the range. Accessible like south Bronx or LIC? Maybe a bit larger. Out at Aqueduct? Shrink it down, you just lost fans. Etc.
Our owners currently have near-unlimited sources of cash, and as such can be the club's sugar-daddy, but the object is to have a team that ultimately pays for itself.
Look at the EPL and the teams that have either upgraded to larger stadiums, or those that haven't and suffered. Prior to the mega-TV deal, Arsenal had to upgrade to stay competitive, and they've said the increased tix/concessions has made them profitable. Tottenham is increasing to stay financially competitive. Chelsea too. Then look at a place like Fulham - always packed, but they were one of the poorest teams in the EPL because they never had the resources to bring in the best players, and they dropped down. Swansea is punching above their weight, but they've always had to use exceptional scouting and castoff players - if not for the TV deal they'd have gone down too.
I can't tell you the cost/benefit of an extra seat(s), but I can tell you the cost/benefit of adding seats the first time around as opposed to a future expansion. Expansions are so incredibly messy if not planned for from the beginning. It's more than simply adding new structure and seats above the existing (this is how NYCFC would expand in NYC, not by closing in an open side), it's actually building a ton of extra stadium infrastructure in preparation for the future expansion.
1. The lower floors will already have to be built with sufficient egress dimensions for the added spectators streaming down to the exits. Wider stairs, additional stairs, wider concourses, more exit doors, etc. These costs are part of the initial construction phase.
2. The electrical systems either need to be sized correctly for the future expansion, or the electrical rooms have to be space-planned correctly for the expansion. Additionally, unless they want to have electrical conduit attached on the outside of the walls and be an eyesore, the empty conduit will need to be run during the first phase so that cable can be pulled through it later. Again, 1st phase cost(s).
3. Plumbing for bathrooms, concessions, water fountains have to be sized & planned for because the expansion will have to tie into it.that's a lot of extra hot/cold & waste lines to be laid now.
4. Build a phase 1 roof that can be easily (that's a joke) dismantled to allow expansion and a new phase 2 roof.
These are the most obvious items, and there are definitely more, but each needs to be planned for now (i.e. the bulk of the stadium's guts paid for now to make life easier down the road). If front-loading the project with those variables for expansion, it makes much more sense to spend a little extra (the structure/seating is considered little in comparison) and do it right the first time.
