The Outfield

[LionNYC]

I wrote about the roster build and how NYCFC is falling behind. Complacency

This is my favorite paragraph: This elevation of player quality across the league is crucial to understand. As the great Bronx economist Joseph Antonio Cartagena once said, “Yesterday’s price is not today’s price.” Complacency and the failure to improve the roster year after year seem like surefire paths to mediocrity in the current climate of MLS.

 

[gbservis]

Great article, as always. I completely agree with your take on U22s:

"Thus, constructing your roster with a plurality of U22 players is imperative. Utilizing all available U22 roster spots not only enhances depth but also increases the likelihood that one of those signings will realize their high potential."

I’d take it a step further—not all U22 signings need to carry the same level of risk. A more balanced approach would serve the club well. Take high-upside prospects like Jovan, Ojeda, and Fernández—18-year-olds with fewer than 30 professional appearances who cost $5M-$8.5M. They have immense potential but come with significant risk. Why must all our U22 signings be high-risk, home-run swings? Why not hedge a bit by adding a couple of 20-year-olds with a season or two of experience—players with slightly lower ceilings but who are more proven and ready to contribute immediately?

This lack of balance is my biggest concern with Lee’s recent moves. All the transfer money is being funneled into risky 18-year-olds. We need better risk distribution within the U22 slots and more strategic investment across the roster—especially in the DP slots. We won the cup with a balanced roster, some young prospects complemented by proven veterans, this current high-risk development model Lee went all in on looks nothing like what brought us success in the past.

 

[FootyLovin]

Great article, as always. I completely agree with your take on U22s:


I’d take it a step further—not all U22 signings need to carry the same level of risk. A more balanced approach would serve the club well. Take high-upside prospects like Jovan, Ojeda, and Fernández—18-year-olds with fewer than 30 professional appearances who cost $5M-$8.5M. They have immense potential but come with significant risk. Why must all our U22 signings be high-risk, home-run swings? Why not hedge a bit by adding a couple of 20-year-olds with a season or two of experience—players with slightly lower ceilings but who are more proven and ready to contribute immediately?

This lack of balance is my biggest concern with Lee’s recent moves. All the transfer money is being funneled into risky 18-year-olds. We need better risk distribution within the U22 slots and more strategic investment across the roster—especially in the DP slots. We won the cup with a balanced roster, some young prospects complemented by proven veterans, this current high-risk development model Lee went all in on looks nothing like what brought us success in the past.

I wonder if this is a function of timing. The new rule was created. He had a bunch of slots. He filled them with all high risk prospects. This year Jovan leaves and he can refill that slot with another high risk prospects. But Fernandez and Ojeda are 1 year older and more mature. Say 1 of them leaves after this season. Repeat the process but the remaining one is now in his 3rd year and you have a staggered group. The problem was doing everything in one year.

 

[mgarbowski]

I wonder if this is a function of timing. The new rule was created. He had a bunch of slots. He filled them with all high risk prospects. This year Jovan leaves and he can refill that slot with another high risk prospects. But Fernandez and Ojeda are 1 year older and more mature. Say 1 of them leaves after this season. Repeat the process but the remaining one is now in his 3rd year and you have a staggered group. The problem was doing everything in one year.

This might be correct in that it’s the plan, but it’s also the sort of just-so planning that mostly works in fiction:

There’s no actual reason to expect players will be ready to move on at staggered intervals. They will cluster.
If you only hit on 1 of every 3 or 4, which seems to be reasonable, that means when the gem leaves, you have multiple duds even with proper staggering, and a new 17 year old who may or may not hit.
At a hit rate of 25 or 33% your hits will cluster. Yay when you have 3 simultaneously. Bollocks when 7 in a row are meh.
When the plan for the misses is to loan them and not replace until sold, that plan involves the intentional waste of roster assets.

Don’t put your entire portfolio in startups if you want regular income.

 

[gbservis]

I wonder if this is a function of timing. The new rule was created. He had a bunch of slots. He filled them with all high risk prospects. This year Jovan leaves and he can refill that slot with another high risk prospects. But Fernandez and Ojeda are 1 year older and more mature. Say 1 of them leaves after this season. Repeat the process but the remaining one is now in his 3rd year and you have a staggered group. The problem was doing everything in one year.

I don't think Fernandez or Ojeda being a year older solves the issue I'm talking about. It's not a lack of experience/maturity; it's the fact that the scouts may have missed on them because there was very little information to go on. I'm saying get a few slightly older players so you can be more sure of what you are getting to balance out the high-risk prospects like Jovan, Fernandez, or Ojeda.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Great article, as always. I completely agree with your take on U22s:


I’d take it a step further—not all U22 signings need to carry the same level of risk. A more balanced approach would serve the club well. Take high-upside prospects like Jovan, Ojeda, and Fernández—18-year-olds with fewer than 30 professional appearances who cost $5M-$8.5M. They have immense potential but come with significant risk. Why must all our U22 signings be high-risk, home-run swings? Why not hedge a bit by adding a couple of 20-year-olds with a season or two of experience—players with slightly lower ceilings but who are more proven and ready to contribute immediately?

This lack of balance is my biggest concern with Lee’s recent moves. All the transfer money is being funneled into risky 18-year-olds. We need better risk distribution within the U22 slots and more strategic investment across the roster—especially in the DP slots. We won the cup with a balanced roster, some young prospects complemented by proven veterans, this current high-risk development model Lee went all in on looks nothing like what brought us success in the past.

I think the reason we aren't signing U22 players with that experience but lower ceiling is because those guys are a lot cheaper and don't need to occupy the U22 spot because the transfer fees to bring in those types of players are significantly less.

One comparison to the type of player you're noting is actually Alonso Martinez. Yes, I know he was 24 when NYCFC signed him, but that's still somewhat young. And he was a guy who got good minutes, but was considered a low ceiling type of player and he came on a free transfer.

Now, he knocked it out of the park last year and we really can't expect that type of production out of those types of signings (and I'm not trying to say that you're suggesting that).

 

[gbservis]

I think the reason we aren't signing U22 players with that experience but lower ceiling is because those guys are a lot cheaper and don't need to occupy the U22 spot because the transfer fees to bring in those types of players are significantly less.

One comparison to the type of player you're noting is actually Alonso Martinez. Yes, I know he was 24 when NYCFC signed him, but that's still somewhat young. And he was a guy who got good minutes, but was considered a low ceiling type of player and he came on a free transfer.

Now, he knocked it out of the park last year and we really can't expect that type of production out of those types of signings (and I'm not trying to say that you're suggesting that).

Finding U22 players who are not 18 year olds doesn't seem to be a problem for the rest of the league:

MLS Contract: U22-Initiative

A list of MLS U22-Initiative Contracts signed/starts in 2024.

www.spotrac.com

 

[SoupInNYC]

Finding U22 players who are not 18 year olds doesn't seem to be a problem for the rest of the league:

MLS Contract: U22-Initiative

A list of MLS U22-Initiative Contracts signed/starts in 2024.

www.spotrac.com

A lot of those players I'm unfamiliar with, do you know how many of them are also guys who have had great experience but would also be considered low ceiling guys?

Somehow Petkovic is on that list although he was 37 when he was signed? I also see Akinola on that list and he wouldn't be considered the type of signing we are discussing since he came up through the TFC system

 

[Gene]

FWIW:

Campos started 17 games for LAFC (27 appearances) and was transferred to Cruz Azul this off season.

Kelsy scored 6 goals last season for FCC.

Don't know much about Ku-DiPietro, but DCU just sold him to Colorado (?) for $1 million+.

Listening to a podcast last night and they were talking up David Martinez bigly.

 

[gbservis]

A lot of those players I'm unfamiliar with, do you know how many of them are also guys who have had great experience but would also be considered low ceiling guys?

Somehow Petkovic is on that list although he was 37 when he was signed? I also see Akinola on that list and he wouldn't be considered the type of signing we are discussing since he came up through the TFC system

I realize that wasn’t a great source—my bad. Finding a solid list of U22 players is tough. I’m not a scouting expert, but here’s how I see it:

If you’re paying $8.5M for an 18-year-old like Jovan, you’re essentially betting on his massive upside while accepting significant risk. He’s far from his projected peak, and there’s maybe a 50% chance he doesn’t reach it. But if he does, he could command a $60M transfer fee down the line, which justifies the investment.

On the other hand, there are 20-year-old players who might also cost $8.5M but come with less risk. With two more years of professional experience, they’ve already proven themselves at an MLS starter level. The trade-off? Their ceiling might only be a $15M outgoing transfer fee, but the odds of reaching that valuation are much higher.

I don’t believe the choice is just between Jovan or Martinez with nothing in between. If NYCFC has the supposed advantage of CFG’s world-class scouting network, they should be better than anyone at identifying these in-between options.

 

[KevinJRogers]

I don’t believe the choice is just between Jovan or Martinez with nothing in between. If NYCFC has the supposed advantage of CFG’s world-class scouting network, they should be better than anyone at identifying these in-between options.

Key insight. And it brings up the question whether we're placing high-risk big bets intentionally, or it just looks that way. Maybe the Young Guns are the in-between options, at least from CFG's perspective?

I honestly don't know. But if my feet are under Ferran's desk, and I'm looking at the massive transfer fees the Mothership has paid, a few million here and there for potentially high-upside recruits at my Number Two Club doesn't look all that pricey.

Then again, Erling Haaland's initial transfer fee was €60 million, which is low compared to a lot of other big names of late. So, maybe the organization is just good at spending their money.

 

[gbservis]

Key insight. And it brings up the question whether we're placing high-risk big bets intentionally, or it just looks that way. Maybe the Young Guns are the in-between options, at least from CFG's perspective?

I honestly don't know. But if my feet are under Ferran's desk, and I'm looking at the massive transfer fees the Mothership has paid, a few million here and there for potentially high-upside recruits at my Number Two Club doesn't look all that pricey.

Then again, Erling Haaland's initial transfer fee was €60 million, which is low compared to a lot of other big names of late. So, maybe the organization is just good at spending their money.

I posted something in the roster thread because I felt like I was clogging up the outfield thread when this debate belongs better over there. I'm starting to think it's rooted in a lack of understanding of the quality of the league by CFG decision-makers.

 

[KevinJRogers]

I posted something in the roster thread because I felt like I was clogging up the outfield thread when this debate belongs better over there. I'm starting to think it's rooted in a lack of understanding of the quality of the league by CFG decision-makers.

Just read it. I think you're very much onto something here.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I posted something in the roster thread because I felt like I was clogging up the outfield thread when this debate belongs better over there. I'm starting to think it's rooted in a lack of understanding of the quality of the league by CFG decision-makers.

I've been wondering this myself. Think there's a lot of validity to that.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Haaland's initial fee on an international transfer was Eu.8 million when RB Salzburg bought him and Marsch coached him. Then Eu.20 million to Dortmund and Eu. 60 million to Man City.

Man City got him on the cheap because he negotiated a low buyout when he transferred to Dortmund.

 

[KevinJRogers]

Haaland's initial fee on an international transfer was Eu.8 million when RB Salzburg bought him and Marsch coached him. Then Eu.20 million to Dortmund and Eu. 60 million to Man City.

Man City got him on the cheap because he negotiated a low buyout when he transferred to Dortmund.

There are some provisions which could bump the transfer fee over €85 million, too. But still, it was a good bit of business by CFG.

 

[EganSoccerWords]

New from Trey Fillmore looking at how Pascal took down Lazio while at AZ Alkmaar: Giant Killer

 

[gbservis]

New from Trey Fillmore looking at how Pascal took down Lazio while at AZ Alkmaar: Giant Killer

Great article, it sounds like we got the right guy to get us back to the playing style from when the club was at its best. Can Keaton play the Reijnders role? He has the offensive abilities, but this will be a significant jump in his expected work rate.

 

[mgarbowski]

New from Trey Fillmore looking at how Pascal took down Lazio while at AZ Alkmaar: Giant Killer

I've harped on this a few times, but the thing about Nick that most bugged me was he tried to compensate for a tepid offense by sacrificing defense. At its height, NYCFC used an aggressive defense to both stop the opponent from scoring and charge its own offense.
I like getting back to club DNA.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I've harped on this a few times, but the thing about Nick that most bugged me was he tried to compensate for a tepid offense by sacrificing defense. At its height, NYCFC used an aggressive defense to both stop the opponent from scoring and charge its own offense.
I like getting back to club DNA.

In hindsight, I didn't mind sacrificing some defense in order to boost the offense when you have one of the best shot-stoppers in Matt Freese in the back. You end up, in theory, maximizing his talents in order to generate more chances. (as in, theoretically, if you can give yourself and your opponent each 5 more shots, you should like your chances more with Freese in the net instead of the opposing keeper.

The issue that I end up having with that, at the end of the day, is the boost to the offense was miniscule at best and while Freese still stood on his head so often, the chances offered to the opponent were usually highly valuable chances while NYCFC was not generating those same types of chances themselves.