Chris posted that one in The Outfield discord too when I'm posted the draft
New one from Paul Harvey. He built a really innovative team cohesion metric featured in this one: Children's Crusade
Expansion Draft article coming later this week. Vote in our poll: Reader Poll: Who Should NYCFC Protect in the Expansion Draft?
Tricky one. I must admit, I protected Perea and left Parks out there. Bit of a gamble, and truth be told, I very much don't want to lose Keaton if it can be avoided. But if it's a choice between the two, emotion aside, that's the way I would go.
There's also a little strategy involved. Keaton's medical history might work in our favor. A team might not want to expend a pick on him when they can find other midfielders at a similar level who don't carry the same risk profile.
I protected: Martinez, Ojeda, Jones, Fernandez, Wolf, Rodriguez, Moralez, Perea, Parks, Illenic, O'Toole, Freese
Didn't protect Martins because picking a DP CB is silly. Bakrar is washed. Jovan is unproven. Risa is a risk but so be it.
I think Sims & Co, swaps out Moralez for one of them. Moralez will just say to San Diego, if you pick me, I will retire.
Just remember that San Diego can pick players as trade bait for other teams.
Didn't protect Martins because picking a DP CB is silly. Bakrar is washed. Jovan is unproven. Risa is a risk but so be it.
I think Sims & Co, swaps out Moralez for one of them. Moralez will just say to San Diego, if you pick me, I will retire.
Just remember that San Diego can pick players as trade bait for other teams.
I'd unprotect Fernandez and protect Risa, personally
I hemmed and hawed about both those guys, but eventually I protected all the new signings (hey, we spent the money) and left Risa exposed on the assumption it's Haak's job now. I protected Tanasijevic to keep the physical backup for both Justin and Martins.
As with Parks, I'd like to keep Birk, and I'd be hoping his injury profile would mean he'd get a pass and be back. It's a calculated risk.
One principle is to protect those players who are good value for money and expose those who are not. If a player being picked frees up enough salary to secure a good replacement, then it's not such a loss.
Another is that players on which we've just spent a ton of money should be protected as they probably retain some resale value.
Protected: Martinez, Bakrar, Ojeda, Mijatovic, Jones, Santi, Perea, Parks, Ilenic, O'Toole, Risa, Freese
Notables Not Protected:
Another is that players on which we've just spent a ton of money should be protected as they probably retain some resale value.
Protected: Martinez, Bakrar, Ojeda, Mijatovic, Jones, Santi, Perea, Parks, Ilenic, O'Toole, Risa, Freese
Notables Not Protected:
Maxi - too much of a retirement risk to be picked (hopefully)
Martins - he makes $2.5M per year; we have to be able to get a terrific CB for that much
Wolf - I like him, but he makes $1.5M, and we have to be able to get a replacement for that
Fernandez - he makes $628K and is unlikely to fetch much on the resale market
Tanasijevic - we need a better 3rd CB than him
Barraza - I like him, but the best we can do for him is give him a chance to go somewhere else and start
Can't see the team giving up a fee for Jovan, Ojeda, Fernandez, or Talles. My gut says they all get protected.
Yeah, I agree they have to protect the guys we paid high fees to acquire you can't pay $9M for Jovan and then lose him for nothing. It's a bit wild to me that the league is still doing expansion drafts. We are long past the days of expansion drafts consisting of teams taking guys like Ned Grabavoy and Chris Wingert. We are choosing between guys like Risa who NYCFC paid a $1M transfer fee for or Haak whom we developed and could potentially fetch a meaningful transfer fee for.
Results to the survey here. Unless NYCFC makes a nice befor the draft expect the team to lose a valuable youngster or a key defensive piece. Aggressive Expansion
ZYanksRule
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I think on some level we're overstating the chances of losing someone. Yes we have good players who will be available, but I think most MLS teams have strong, deep rosters. Between 3 DPs, 3 U-22s, TAM players, and the overall increase in squad depth the last few years, every team is deeper now than even 5 years ago. Without really diving deep into rosters, I would think at the very least Columbus, Cincy, LA Galaxy, and LAFC all have deeper rosters than we do, and all four of those teams will be exposing strong players.
Only five players out of the 29 MLS teams will be selected. Yes, there is a chance we will lose someone. But we are far from the only MLS team that will be exposing good players, and I think to say we should "expect" to lose a player is overstating the threat.
A fair point! I see the forum talking about how we have really great players but I look at our roster and see a lot of holes. Would it be so bad to lose a player and have some flexibility to plug a different new player into roster that our new coach will want. But then I think yeah they are probably grabbing a player who isn’t a problem/project and creating another hole… but thennn you have to think the club is protecting all those stellar players and all that’s left is problems/projects that are unprotected.
Funniest outcome is SD chooses Jovan and just flips him to Europe for half what we paid but it’s still $4+ million profit.
Great article by the outfield, as always. It broke things down really well. I wasn't even thinking about Magno. I will put my bet in now: If we leave Kevin OT unprotected, as it looks like we will be forced to, I think he's gone. He's a young, proven starter on a budget contract who doesn't take an international slot.
This whole situation continues to underscore how poor our U22 signings are. We have to protect them because on the market they are worth millions based on their projected potential but based on their current ability to contribute they are essentially worthless to us. So we will potentially lose a guy like KOT, which is the type of player all MLS teams need to make things work under the cap because Lee wanted to gamble millions in transfer money to play CFG Academy Jr. with our U22 slots while all the other teams in the league used them on guys ready to contribute the moment they arrived.
Given the salary budget issues, losing KOT is arguably one of the worst possible outcomes.
ZYanksRule
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Which is why I think we'll try to protect him over one of the U-22 or DP players. Can we get away with not protecting Thiago? I think a lot will have to do with who has a no-trade clause in their contract.
Don’t know about his contract but agree we don’t protect him if allowed. Doubt he would be taken and no big loss if he is.
ZYanksRule
Registered
I've been looking at some previous expansion drafts on wikipedia, and let's just say we should not take it as gospel that DPs likely have no-trade clauses.
In 2021, we left Mitrita, Medina, and Moralez exposed. In 2019 Medina was exposed. In 2018 we left Villa exposed (his contract was expiring). In 2016, Frank Lampard was left exposed.
In 2021, we left Mitrita, Medina, and Moralez exposed. In 2019 Medina was exposed. In 2018 we left Villa exposed (his contract was expiring). In 2016, Frank Lampard was left exposed.
League wide hit rate on u22 is very low. LAFC's Cristian Olivera is the only one in the league top 30 in g+. If they do hit, you usually are not going to be able to keep them, so these aren't really spots that you should depend on for production. Anything you get out of those spots is just gravy. The real value they have for roster building is when we do sell them, the allocation dollars we are able to generate can be used to sign vets in the above max budget charge range to non-DP contracts.
The real villain here is that there is no reason in the year of our lord 2024 that we need an expansion draft. just give each expansion team a shit load of GAM and call it a day.
The real villain here is that there is no reason in the year of our lord 2024 that we need an expansion draft. just give each expansion team a shit load of GAM and call it a day.
