Who will win the league? Reach CL?
- Thread starter NYCFC_Dan
- Start date
Metropolis
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I can't how how Liverpool doesn't take it.
MikeDatTiger
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Yeah. If Chelsea had played Liverpool when City played Liverpool, Chelsea probably beats Liverpool. But now? Mourhinho is basically begging the Chelsea board publicly to let him blow off the game. Unless Liverpool has a horrible game in those last two and MCFC are able to win the rest of their games, Liverpool will win it.
BlueWolf
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Unless of course this is more Mou-Mou tactics making the Liverpool players feel a little more relaxed than they should be feeling.
MikeDatTiger
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I'm sure there's a bit of that. After all, there a number of players who can't play in the second tie, so they might as well play against Liverpool. It would delight me to no end to see Mourinho actually try for the win. Would make the last few weeks extremely competitive.
MyBoyVilla
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I can't see a reason for him to go for it. The league title is out of reach, Champions League for 2015 is secure, there is literally nothing to play for. Anybody who is going to play in Leg 2 should not see the pitch this weekend.
MikeDatTiger
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I don't know that the EPL is so out of reach. if Chelsea beat Liverpool, Max Points look like this:
LFC-86
MCFC-86
CFC-84.
Now, Chelsea will lose a GD tie-breaker to both LFC and CFC , so they have to pass in points, meaning both MCFC and Liverpool would have to lose one of their remaining games (or draw two). MCFC still has a game at everton that they could very easily lose, leaving CFC to hope that Liverpool's defense has an off day and they lose one. It's unlikely to be sure, but it's not unthinkable.
You also have the nasty reality that if CFC loses and their rivals win this weekend, suddenly the table looks like this:
2. MCFC 77
3. CFC 75
4. Arsenal 73
5. Everton 72
CFC is better on GD than both Arsenal and Everton. The problem is that Chelsea plays Norwich and Cardiff after Liverpool. Arsenal after that would play West Bron and Norwich, and Everton play MCFC and Hull.
The issue for CFC becomes that if LFC win, that Everton game v. MCFC becomes one that MCFC likely have nothing to play for as would Hull. Chelsea and Arsenal find themselves against relegation teams to be sure, but teams that are motivated. Combine that with the injuries and suddenly Chelsea have work to do.
I think the ideal for Chelsea is try to at least get a draw out of Sunday's match or ideally win it relying mostly on the players who can't play in the UCL match so that they can check out of the EPL after beating Atletico.
LFC-86
MCFC-86
CFC-84.
Now, Chelsea will lose a GD tie-breaker to both LFC and CFC , so they have to pass in points, meaning both MCFC and Liverpool would have to lose one of their remaining games (or draw two). MCFC still has a game at everton that they could very easily lose, leaving CFC to hope that Liverpool's defense has an off day and they lose one. It's unlikely to be sure, but it's not unthinkable.
You also have the nasty reality that if CFC loses and their rivals win this weekend, suddenly the table looks like this:
2. MCFC 77
3. CFC 75
4. Arsenal 73
5. Everton 72
CFC is better on GD than both Arsenal and Everton. The problem is that Chelsea plays Norwich and Cardiff after Liverpool. Arsenal after that would play West Bron and Norwich, and Everton play MCFC and Hull.
The issue for CFC becomes that if LFC win, that Everton game v. MCFC becomes one that MCFC likely have nothing to play for as would Hull. Chelsea and Arsenal find themselves against relegation teams to be sure, but teams that are motivated. Combine that with the injuries and suddenly Chelsea have work to do.
I think the ideal for Chelsea is try to at least get a draw out of Sunday's match or ideally win it relying mostly on the players who can't play in the UCL match so that they can check out of the EPL after beating Atletico.
MyBoyVilla
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Sure, it is mathematically possible that Chelsea do not finish between 2-4, but looking at the fixtures, I think anybody would come to that conclusion, regardless of the outcome of this weekend's match.
3 points from the last 3 fixtures f0r Chelsea guarantees Champions League next year. And 2 of those are Norwich and Cardiff.
4 points from the last 3 fixtures for Liverpool guarantees Chelsea won't win the title. And 2 of those are Palace and Newcastle.
So, despite your scenarios, realistically they have nothing to play for in the league, aside from making sure they do not choke away their last 2 matches.
MikeDatTiger
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Ok, let me reword your scenario:
If Chelsea beats Liverpool, they are guaranteed a Champions League next year
If Chelsea beats Liverpool, Liverpool have to get 4 points in their last 2 matches to guarantee Chelsea doesn't win.
If Chelsea lose to Liverpool, they HAVE to win one of their last two matches against desperate teams to get a Champions spot
if you're Chelsea, why don't you go hard for the win this weekend? You guarantee a UCL and put pressure on LFC. Sure, maybe LFC doesn't buckle but wouldn't you rather hope for the spot. Additionally if you beat Atletico and you decide to not hope for LFC & MCFC to falter, you can blow off those last two matches and rest up for the final. Why wouldn't you take that scenario?
MikeDatTiger
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City has two main issues:
1) They have to go to Everton and win while Everton desperately try to get a UCL spot that would be enormous for the club.
2) Liverpool's opponents left are Chelsea, Newcastle, and Crystal Palace. If Chelsea decides to go all in on the second leg as Mourinho as suggested (*cue Mou-Mou mind games*), then none of the 3 opponents have all that much to play for. Liverpool's defense always makes them vulnerable, but it hasn't nipped them yet over these past 11 games.
If Chelsea were to beat Liverpool this weekend, all bets are off and it gets really interesting. It's a shame the Sunderland & Liverpool fixtures weren't switched for Chelsea; we might have a very different title race.
MyBoyVilla
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Because Liverpool are not going to blow their last 2 games that horribly, and neither is City, and neither is Chelsea. You say desperate teams, I say horrible teams. Yes, technically you would prefer to put the league spot in the bank, but you don't buy insurance on your crappy car from 1993 when you can use the same money to buy a spanking new Ferrari.
This is Champions League for goodness sake.
Just going to remind everyone that Crystal Palace took it to Chelsea at their field and won. Liverpool go there on the last game of the season. Safe to say as a Liverpool fan I'm a little worried about that game. CP have played very well as of late
MikeDatTiger
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MCFC and Liverpool don't have to blow both games; they each have to lose one. MCFC has a midweek trip to Everton. Liverpool's defense is awful. That's not unthinkable.
And frankly, what about Chelsea makes you think they're beating Real Madrid or Bayern Munich?
And frankly, what about Chelsea makes you think they're beating Real Madrid or Bayern Munich?
MyBoyVilla
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What about Chelsea makes you think they are beating Liverpool?
It is risk and reward. Focusing on Champions League affords a much higher reward than winning the league. Also, there is a much greater chance of them winning UCL than EPL (they control their own destiny). Also, there is little risk of dropping out of UCL next year, while one loss puts them out of this year's UCL.
These are the decisions a manager has to make, risk and reward. And if you think the match against Liverpool is more crucial than the one vs Atletico, you are fooling yourself.
MikeDatTiger
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Risk and reward. By blowing the game against Liverpool Chelsea eliminates themselves from title contention and risks exclusions from the UCL for a better chance to beat Atletico (and they have to win unless we get another scoreless draw) which gives them the right to get pummeled in Lisbon by Real Madrid or Bayern Munich. I don't see much reward and a lot of risk .
MyBoyVilla
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I guarantee you the team does not view the second leg as an opportunity to get pummeled in the final. Wasn't it just two years ago that Chelsea had no chance in Allianz Arena to win UCL?
As a manager and as a player and as a fan, you want to control your own destiny. So hell yes, I would rather a better chance to win two games to be the Champions of Europe over a better chance to beat Liverpool, then STILL have to beat two other teams, and STILL have to hope one of Crystal Palace and Newcastle beat the best team in the league that has not lost since December of 2013.
Matt Kelly
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With not much time left, I do believe the title is still up for grabs. The Top 3 (LFC, CFC, MCFC) have all had their ups and downs and it can change very easily. Even with 3-4-5 games left, their is still too much time to declare a winner.
