How YOU Doin’? | NYCFC 2022 Season Discussion
- Thread starter Gotham Gator
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Interesting at the huge amount of teams right around 1.3/1.3. Is that the nature of the meta of MLS soccer?
Actual goals scored this year is 340 over 125 games, which is 2.72 G/Gm, which is 1.36 G/Gm/Team, which is pretty close to 1.3. Also xG does not account for own goals, which probably further reduces the gap if you also excluded those from the actual goal count.
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Which graph do you like best?
The one naming Keaton Parks as the top center mid?
Or the one showing that we have 3 of the top 11 wingers in the league?
And Oh My GOD! Talles Magno! My eyes… they BURN!
The one naming Keaton Parks as the top center mid?
Or the one showing that we have 3 of the top 11 wingers in the league?
And Oh My GOD! Talles Magno! My eyes… they BURN!
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Talles, to me, feels like he could have a potential Taty explosion a la last year. Taty had great xG numbers but wasn't finishing until his mother visited, then he went on a tear to end up matching/coming close to his xG output and getting the golden boot.
Granted, Talles is younger, so I don't expect him to get the golden boot. But those numbers are ridiculous, and even if they even out, something has to give with the chances he's creating for himself and his teammates. He is definitely much improved over last year, so hopefully he keeps growing into the machine we all believe he can be. Only then can he truly become the TALLEST MAGNO
Getting that one in early, eh? Good move, total thumbs up! LOL
I generally don't like goals scored in minutes #-# stats as I often think they are more representative of statistical noise than any real pattern. But this is remarkably, well, pattern like. I wonder how much Deila has the team on different strategies for the middle vs beginning and end of halves.
I'm trying to keep track of NYCFC's "home" record at various locations in all competitions and would appreciate it if anyone wants to check my work so far.
I am not counting 2 MLS-Is-Back games in Orlando that were artificially designated home games. Other than that, am I missing anything, wrong results, wrong counts?
Pre-2017: Two USOC games at Hofstra and at Fordham, both losses. Cume 0-2-0
2017 Hartford and Citi. Both MLS games both draws. Cume 0-2-2
2018 none
2019 Belson USOC win Cume 1-2-2
2019 Citi Playoff loss Cume 1-3-2
2020 MLS RBA 4-1-0 Cume 5-4-2
2020 CCL RBA 1-1-0 Cume 6-5-2
2021 RBA MLS 4-2-2 Cume 10-7-4
2022 Banc of Cali CCL win Cume 11-7-4
2022 Hartford CCL win Cume 12-7-4
2022 RBA CCL draw Cume 12-7-5
2022 Citi MLS 1-0-1 Cume 13-7-6
2022 Belson USOC win Cume 14-7-6
I am not counting 2 MLS-Is-Back games in Orlando that were artificially designated home games. Other than that, am I missing anything, wrong results, wrong counts?
Pre-2017: Two USOC games at Hofstra and at Fordham, both losses. Cume 0-2-0
2017 Hartford and Citi. Both MLS games both draws. Cume 0-2-2
2018 none
2019 Belson USOC win Cume 1-2-2
2019 Citi Playoff loss Cume 1-3-2
2020 MLS RBA 4-1-0 Cume 5-4-2
2020 CCL RBA 1-1-0 Cume 6-5-2
2021 RBA MLS 4-2-2 Cume 10-7-4
2022 Banc of Cali CCL win Cume 11-7-4
2022 Hartford CCL win Cume 12-7-4
2022 RBA CCL draw Cume 12-7-5
2022 Citi MLS 1-0-1 Cume 13-7-6
2022 Belson USOC win Cume 14-7-6
I was actually going to look into this later today as somebody on Twitter prompted me for it.
Seemed the best way to do this was to just snip an image of the excel I put together.
ETA: I'm not sure counting specific legs of a two game home/away series as a win or a loss is appropriate, but for this exercise I did so. The "draw" against Seattle above at RBA maybe should be counted as a loss and the one of the playoff wins at YS perhaps should be counted as a loss as well (return leg against Columbus). Especially considering they were second legs, but again, I'm keeping it as is.
And then obviously only calculated points and ppg for MLS Regular Season. Didn't feel like it was appropriate to add other competitions to those calcs.
As a general rule I also hate to count individual legs as stand-alone wins or losses while ignoring the context. The Columbus game you mention is a perfect example. But I don't see a better way to handle it for this exercise unless you just ignore 2-leg contests. It is also ridiculous to count the Columbus game as a home loss, because (1) we really lost the contest in Columbus, and (2) it makes no sense to burden some games with handicaps when comparing venues.
It looks like we agree on all the non-YS counts except I included 2015 Hofstra which admittedly I did not look up and I guess it was an Away game. I can also confirm you and I agree on the Yankee Stadium figures.
ETA I also take your point about not applying PPG to tournament contests but FWIW 14-6-6 is 1.85 and the non-YS record for MLS regular season only is 1.88.
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Hofstra in 2015 was an away game and technically a draw. Poku had an incredible bicycle kick goal, but we couldn't convert the penalties.
Thirteen games is not a round number in any way, but I had time this long weekend, so here's a random update:
- 26 points is the most NYCFC has ever had after 13 games. In 2018 they had 24, and they had 20 points after 13 games 3 times: 2017, 2019, and 2021. Charts show 2018 and later, skipping the extremely anomalous and short 2020 season.
- +15 is the highest Goal Differential after 13 games. Previous high was 7 in 2018. The earliest NYCFC ever reached +15 GD was in 2021 when they had +16 after 20 games.
- 22 points in 8 games is the best 8-game stretch in team history. Previous best was 20 points, achieved twice in August-September 2019 (games 24-31 and 25-32).
- NYCFC's longest undefeated streak is 12 games in April-July 2019, then a 9 game streak also in 2019 (see previous bullet). Current streak of 8 is tied with season-straddling streak in 2017-18.
- The six game scoreless streak coincided perfectly with May. Counting Cup games, NYCFC played 8 games across all competitions and allowed one goal, to a third division team.
- Deila has coached 70 regular season games, behind only Veira (83), and will pass him in August barring a major shock. He ranks third in career PPG.
- For Domé fans, he had the best 28 game stretch with 59 points at the long back end of 2019.
- An odd trademark of Ronny's teams is that they score a whole lot or very few goals. I calculated the team's goals per game standard deviation for each year. We'll have to see where 2022 ends up when it has a full season - it's currently no surprise it is an outlier with just 13 games, as was 2020 with 23 games. But Ronny also has the 3 highest years, meaning NYCFC has a lot of games scoring very few or very many goals away from the average.
- Here's another way of looking at it. This table shows how many games the team scored 0-1 goals, 2-3 goals, or 4+ goals under each coach. NYCFC scores 0-1 goals under Ronny almost as often as they did under Jason Kreis, has the lowest percentage of 2-3 goal games, and accumulates 4+ goal games roughly twice as much as under Torrent or Vieira.
- NYCFC has played the third easiest schedule to date based on opposing PPG adjusted for H/A at 1.12. DC United and Shield rival LAFC had slightly easier schedules. The good news is NYCFC has a fairly easy remaining schedule at 1.33 PPG, which is not even in the top half of difficulty. LAFC's remaining opponents come in at 1.54.
- Here are some sample records that get NYCFC to various point totals. The team could collapse, get just 1.29 PPG the rest of the season, and still be all but guaranteed to make the playoffs at 53 points. Finishing at 60 or higher is not a lock but not too hard. 70 is a stretch.
- Finally just because I always included one of these here is a PPG table.
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Here is another table I worked on. I left it out because I don't think it tells us very much. I computed the Average Margin of Winning and Losing every year. Then I compared with a simple subtraction. Before I collected the data, I thought that a positive number in the last column could be evidence that a team is "more efficient" when winning than its opponents. But I don't think that really is what this shows.
I think this mostly shows that a good team will occasionally blow out its opponents more often than it gets blown out. I think 2015 just shows that a bad team with David Villa will sometimes win big while often being just bad enough to lose. These numbers are also based on ridiculously small sample sizes. The most wins NYC ever had was 18. After 2015, the most losses is 11. That means a single outlier really skews things. To take a famous example, if you exclude the RBW from the data in 2016, the average margin of loss goes down from 2.20 to 1.67, and flips the third column figure over all the remaining games to negative, like every other year but 2019.
I tried looking at this as another way of analyzing the issue of how the team tends to score in bunches under Ronny, or not score so much at all. But I don't think it helps. This post is just sort of a BTS look at how I sometimes look at something and then decide it's not actually meaningful.
I think this mostly shows that a good team will occasionally blow out its opponents more often than it gets blown out. I think 2015 just shows that a bad team with David Villa will sometimes win big while often being just bad enough to lose. These numbers are also based on ridiculously small sample sizes. The most wins NYC ever had was 18. After 2015, the most losses is 11. That means a single outlier really skews things. To take a famous example, if you exclude the RBW from the data in 2016, the average margin of loss goes down from 2.20 to 1.67, and flips the third column figure over all the remaining games to negative, like every other year but 2019.
I tried looking at this as another way of analyzing the issue of how the team tends to score in bunches under Ronny, or not score so much at all. But I don't think it helps. This post is just sort of a BTS look at how I sometimes look at something and then decide it's not actually meaningful.
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Why not do what the Olympics does and throw out the high and low scores, in what mathematicians call a "sensibilized average" (LOL, just made that up, although I'm sure there's an actual name for that sort of thing). Should only be about three weeks' worth of research and calculation after which we can all go, "hmmm, not sure that made all that much difference." (also LOL).
Would be interesting if it's 15 minutes work but certainly not worth a week of statistics mining, of course. In all seriousness though, I think 34 games is a large enough sample to toss out the two highest and two lowest goal differentials, say, to see if clipping out those outliers could yield some interesting and relevant info. And again, not at all trying to assign homework here!
But these are not 34 game samples. It’s separate samples of maybe 16 and 11.
Also, I think it might be less valid to throw out outliers when one side has a boundary. The lowest margin of decision is always 1. The largest can be anything, in theory, and realistically, anywhere from 2 to 7 or 8. So that exercise always compresses the results in one direction.
It feels like it's been a rough follow-up to our championship season, but after 16/17 games including tonight's draw, Philly's loss, Montreal's win over Seattle:
And love that game in hand for a bit of insurance.
This HRB article complements my post yesterday about fouling and discusses NYCFC as a pressing team, measured by individual pressing events. It goes further and shows that, adjusted for possession (you can't press when you have the ball) we are the most active pressing team in the league.
www.hudsonriverblue.com
Also, our possession in 2022 is just under 60%, which is up from 53% in 2021. So our total pressing actions is down (similar to how our fouls are not at top of the league as they have been) but the ratio of pressing actions to time of opposing team possession is high. More good stuff. Click through.
I think the Hudson River Blue guys have stepped up their quality.
Are NYCFC a pressing team?
New York City are known for the possession-based play, but the data show that when the Pigeons don’t have the ball they’re the most active pressing team in MLS
www.hudsonriverblue.com
Also, our possession in 2022 is just under 60%, which is up from 53% in 2021. So our total pressing actions is down (similar to how our fouls are not at top of the league as they have been) but the ratio of pressing actions to time of opposing team possession is high. More good stuff. Click through.
I think the Hudson River Blue guys have stepped up their quality.
NYCFC got its first ever win in Dallas last night. That leaves 3 cities in which NYC has played and never won:
City - Games Played in City
Atlanta - 4
Salt Lake - 3
Nashville - 1
NYCFC has yet to play in Austin or Charlotte.
City - Games Played in City
Atlanta - 4
Salt Lake - 3
Nashville - 1
NYCFC has yet to play in Austin or Charlotte.
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