How YOU Doin’? | NYCFC 2022 Season Discussion

Last night also concluded NYCFC's play against Western Conference teams (8 games). They finished the set at 4-1-3. The only loss was to the Galaxy on Opening Day. Two wins and 2 draws at home. Two wins, a loss, and a draw away. NYC never travels further west than Chicago the rest of the season. Fourteen of the fifteen remaining games are in the Eastern time zone.
 
mgarbowski said:
Last night also concluded NYCFC's play against Western Conference teams (8 games). They finished the set at 4-1-3. The only loss was to the Galaxy on Opening Day. Two wins and 2 draws at home. Two wins, a loss, and a draw away. NYC never travels further west than Chicago the rest of the season. Fourteen of the fifteen remaining games are in the Eastern time zone.
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Away - LA Galaxy - Loss (0-1)
Away - Vancouver - Draw (0-0)
Home - Salt Lake - Win (6-0)
Home - San Jose - Win (3-0)
Home - Kansas City - Draw (0-0, Citi Field)
Away - Minnesota - Win (1-0)
Home - Colorado - Draw (1-1)
Away - Dallas - Win (1-0)
 
Counterintuitive

NYCFC has 15 games left.
The H/A adjusted PPG of the next 5 opponents (just 1 Home game) is 1.35.
The H/A adjusted PPG of the middle 5 opponents (2 Home games) is 1.20.
The H/A adjusted PPG of the last 5 opponents (3 Home games) is 1.72.
 
Just took a look at the schedule to see when we will be making up our game in hand on the union and we have to wait until September 7th to be on par with games played, if things stay this close it will put a real damper on our and the media's thought on who is going to win the east and shield as we may be only a point back but always with a game in hand. I don't know if being in first gives a confidence boost or undue pressure but for the rest of the summer we won't be able to fairly compare on games played which is interesting/frustrating.
 
Alex Da Silva said:
Just took a look at the schedule to see when we will be making up our game in hand on the union and we have to wait until September 7th to be on par with games played, if things stay this close it will put a real damper on our and the media's thought on who is going to win the east and shield as we may be only a point back but always with a game in hand. I don't know if being in first gives a confidence boost or undue pressure but for the rest of the summer we won't be able to fairly compare on games played which is interesting/frustrating.
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In 2019 NYCFC spent a lot of time way behind on games played. It was at least 4 for a while, and maybe hit 5. The club also had a mildly slow start but by the time it hit 16 games played, it had more points than any other East team had at their 16 game mark(s). But because of the games played deficit NYCFC didn't reach actual first place until they played 28 games. But anyone paying attention could see the reality.

With a 1 game deficit, I think it is very unlikely we stay consistently behind on the Union on points but ahead on PPG for the next 10 games or so. We might overtake them on points or they might pass on us PPG. It could bounce around quite a bit and no way to tell where we will be 10 games later. I agree it's mildly annoying when announcers, writers and fans reference the points standings and the GP is unbalanced. I even built a special graph for it in 2018-29. But I don't think it affects anything substantively.
 
Next three games, all away, will finally balance out the heavy home schedule early on (remember a home game every week in May in usually crappy weather?). After these 3 road games, will be even on 12 games played home and away.

I am too lazy to look it up but the 5 remaining home games are 2 RBA, 1 CF and 2 YS I believe.
 
canchon said:
Next three games, all away, will finally balance out the heavy home schedule early on (remember a home game every week in May in usually crappy weather?). After these 3 road games, will be even on 12 games played home and away.

I am too lazy to look it up but the 5 remaining home games are 2 RBA, 1 CF and 2 YS I believe.
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It's 3 RBA, 1 CF and 1 YS. The DC United game originally set for April 9 at Citi was moved to August 31 at RBA as part of the CCL adjustment, and the final home game against Orlando on October 1 was moved from Citi to RBA because of Mets schedule adjustments due to the MLB lockout.
 
Another thing on extreme ref stats and NYCFC - Regular Season Red Cards

2018 - 4
2019 - 1
2020 - 1
2021 - 8
2022 - 1

Extreme clusters are normal. I would expect something like 2018 to be the norm, with the team getting 3-6 red cards every year. But it has not happened (pending our last 13 games). Best not to read anything into it or get worked up by it. I am certain that the red cards last year were neither a result of referee bias or targeting, nor an unusual lack of composure by NYCFC. Most were judgment calls - at least borderline justifiable but not inevitable - and it was mostly a fluke they all went against the team in a way that has not happened before or since. I'm sure a thorough review of incidents in 2019, 2020 and this year could find some potential reds or second yellows that just didn't happen.
 
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mgarbowski said:
It's 3 RBA, 1 CF and 1 YS. The DC United game originally set for April 9 at Citi was moved to August 31 at RBA as part of the CCL adjustment, and the final home game against Orlando on October 1 was moved from Citi to RBA because of Mets schedule adjustments due to the MLB lockout.
Click to expand...

I do feel like we might slip behind Philly and the Supporters' Shield leaders considering we only have two real home games left for the rest of the season. Unless we absolutely kill it in the road games, we're probably going to be dropping a few points here and there considering the tough schedule remaining.

The only saving grace is that we do not have a lot of games left against good teams. Road against Montreal and home to Red Bulls might be our toughest remaining games.

Away Montreal (3rd)
Away Columbus (6th)
Away Inter Miami (11th)
Home Charlotte (RBA) (8th)
Away Chicago (9th)
Away Orlando (5th)
Home D.C. United (RBA) (Last)
Away New England (10th)
Home FC Cincinnati (Citi Field) (7th)
Away Charlotte (8th)
Home New Jersey (Yankee Stadium) (4th)
Home Orlando (RBA) (5th)
Away Atlanta (12th)

So only 5 of last 13 games against teams in playoff position; two of those on the road. Five games remaining against teams in 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, and 14th place in the East.
 
mgarbowski said:
Another thing on extreme ref stats and NYCFC - Regular Season Red Cards

2018 - 4
2019 - 1
2020 - 1
2021 - 8
2022 - 1

Extreme clusters are normal. I would expect something like 2018 to be the norm, with the team getting 3-6 red cards every year. But it has not happened (pending our last 13 games. Best not to read anything into it or get worked up by it. I am certain that the red cards last year were neither a result of referee bias or targeting, nor an unusual lack of composure by NYCFC. Most were judgment calls - at least borderline justifiable but not inevitable - and it was mostly a fluke they all went against the team in a way that has not happened before or since. I'm sure a thorough review of incidents in 2019, 2020 and this year could find some potential reds or second yellows that just didn't happen.
Click to expand...
Speaking about clusters, if you add in playoffs and open cup (4 matches last year and 3 this year) that adds 1 red to last year’s total and 3 to this year’s total
 
ZYanksRule said:
I do feel like we might slip behind Philly and the Supporters' Shield leaders considering we only have two real home games left for the rest of the season. Unless we absolutely kill it in the road games, we're probably going to be dropping a few points here and there considering the tough schedule remaining.

The only saving grace is that we do not have a lot of games left against good teams. Road against Montreal and home to Red Bulls might be our toughest remaining games.

Away Montreal (3rd)
Away Columbus (6th)
Away Inter Miami (11th)
Home Charlotte (RBA) (8th)
Away Chicago (9th)
Away Orlando (5th)
Home D.C. United (RBA) (Last)
Away New England (10th)
Home FC Cincinnati (Citi Field) (7th)
Away Charlotte (8th)
Home New Jersey (Yankee Stadium) (4th)
Home Orlando (RBA) (5th)
Away Atlanta (12th)

So only 5 of last 13 games against teams in playoff position; two of those on the road. Five games remaining against teams in 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, and 14th place in the East.
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We do have to do well on the road. In fact, if we don't get at least, say, 4-7 points in the next 3 road games there is a chance we will learn that the odds of the Shield or first place are very dim if the Union and at least one of LAFC and Austin do well. Even 4 might not be enough if a couple of them get 7 or 9, which is not inconceivable. Unfortunately, even 7-9 points for NYCFC probably does not make us extreme favorites on the upside. It might just keep pace.

The last 5 games of our schedule is a killer. I take your point about the table placement of our opponents, but look at the H/A records of those last 5 opponents:

Our Home Games
Red Bulls are the third best Away team in the league.
Cincinnati has a result in 7 of 11 road games.
Orlando earned a result in 9 of 11 road games.
Any result for these 3 teams means points dropped at home for NYCFC.

Our Away Games
Charlotte and Atlanta are low on the table because they both suck on the road, with a combined 10 points in 20 road games. We play them at their homes, where Charlotte gets 2.1 PPG and Atlanta is a respectable 1.73. Best we can hope is Atlanta is out of contention on Decision Day and they mail it in.

Right now, NYC has 1.56 PPG Away, which is better than any previous NYCFC full season Away PPG. But it's not enough. This year LAFC has 1.90 PPG Away, Austin is 1.92, and the Union 1.73. We have to kill it to keep up.
 
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LionNYC said:
Sean Johnson set a career high mark of clean sheets in a single season with 11 last night, surpassing his previous high of 10 in 2018. The record is 16 by Tony Meola in 2000.
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Interesting he has 2 more than Blake (or Slonina) while Blake has allowed 6 fewer goals.
 
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