2015 Offseason Megathread

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So back to the original thread, I guess Garber is doing a state of the league event today?

- Apparently the league is spending more on Academies now than they were on player spending 5 years ago
- Says Atlanta United have 29,000 season ticket deposits
 
Kjbert said:
So back to the original thread, I guess Garber is doing a state of the league event today?

- Apparently the league is spending more on Academies now than they were on player spending 5 years ago
- Says Atlanta United have 29,000 season ticket deposits
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He did a big interview with Grant Wahl recently where he made the same, or at least similar, academy/development point.

I'm impressed by the Atlanta deposits. I know they are refundable, but people don't hand money over with the intention of just asking for it back later on. I think these are people with a real intention of at least possibly buying, depending of course on price, what seats are available, not moving away or getting fired, etc. I think that unless the team sets ridiculous prices, they will have a substantial base of ticket sales. And that's good for the league.

Back to Garber, I'd love to find out when the 2016 schedule gets announced. For the past 5-6 years that have bounced around making the announcement anywhere from late November to first week of January. Last year was Jan 7. I'd like it to be sooner.
 
mgarbowski said:
He did a big interview with Grant Wahl recently where he made the same, or at least similar, academy/development point.

I'm impressed by the Atlanta deposits. I know they are refundable, but people don't hand money over with the intention of just asking for it back later on. I think these are people with a real intention of at least possibly buying, depending of course on price, what seats are available, not moving away or getting fired, etc. I think that unless the team sets ridiculous prices, they will have a substantial base of ticket sales. And that's good for the league.

Back to Garber, I'd love to find out when the 2016 schedule gets announced. For the past 5-6 years that have bounced around making the announcement anywhere from late November to first week of January. Last year was Jan 7. I'd like it to be sooner.
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Apparently, the NYCFC renewal rate is only 50%

Another note is that the Sounders renewal rate was about 100%. 70% of people bought a "season ticket for life" package or something.
 
Kjbert said:
Apparently, the NYCFC renewal rate is only 50%
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I saw that 50% figure on Twitter yesterday. It's way overstated. It was based on an EOS article that was written 2 weeks into the renewal process. I think renewals went for 5 weeks, so that number definitely increased. Dave Martinez said he stood by the reporting and his source, but also stressed the number was old and not currently accurate. We have no idea what the rate turned out to be. I would be surprised if it is less than 80% this year, but that is purely out of my head. I have no basis for it.
 
Kjbert said:
Apparently, the NYCFC renewal rate is only 50%

Another note is that the Sounders renewal rate was about 100%. 70% of people bought a "season ticket for life" package or something.
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Someone may have analyzed this elsewhere, but around 60%-70%-ish is what I expected for a first season for our new team. It was really just a trial of the unexpected for season one purchasers, so the drop-off would be greater than the departure rate for later seasons when folks know what they are getting and know that that they like it.
 
The 50% renewal rate was 2 weeks into the start of the renewal process. The number was perpetuated and wasn't clarified by Megdal because he's a red bull marketer and it fits the narrative of everything is wrong at NYCFC. Then another red bull employee (?) tweeted the article and her mouth breathing followers retweeted that crap en masse because they needed to forget their drink advert failed yet again to win the Cup.
 
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JayH said:
Someone may have analyzed this elsewhere, but around 60%-70%-ish is what I expected for a first season for our new team. It was really just a trial of the unexpected for season one purchasers, so the drop-off would be greater than the departure rate for later seasons when folks know what they are getting and know that that they like it.
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My rationale for estimating higher, such as it is, is that a good number of our tix were bought late in the season when I think most peope bought for the Founding Member discount benefit going forward. But I still very well could be wrong. Like I said, i pulled the number out of my head.
 
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mgarbowski said:
My rationale, for estimating higher, such as it is, is that a good number of our tix were bought late in the season when I think most people bought for the Founding Member discount benefit going forward. But I still very well could be wrong. Like I said, i pulled the number out of my head.
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Good point, didn't think of that. I was focused more on the pre-season and early-season folks who were taking more of a stab in the dark as to whether they would be a lifer (or at least be in for at least one more). My main point (probably just an obvious one), is that the renewal rate for expansion teams in a first season has to be significantly lower than any incremental losses later in team life. (Therefore, any comparison by a RB salesman really is self-serving and apples to oranges).
 
Kjbert said:
8% is a big nut. That doesn't factor in inflation, opportunity cost, need, etc.

All that really matters is whether or not he is good with money. If he's not, this is probably a good thing for him. Adidas pretty much saved Allen Iverson from himself, although he probably got cash advances on his deferred compensation arrangement with them.
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i will take the 8% anytime, given the market condition. i would say unless you are super good with money (like the top prop trader or investor in the world), you would take 8% annual return locked in. no brainer.
my question is if there is any insurance on the paying entity in the case it goes belly up or away. if that credit risk is covered, it is really easy decision.
 
NYdoesitEZ said:
i will take the 8% anytime, given the market condition. i would say unless you are super good with money (like the top prop trader or investor in the world), you would take 8% annual return locked in. no brainer.
my question is if there is any insurance on the paying entity in the case it goes belly up or away. if that credit risk is covered, it is really easy decision.
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What happens if Bonilla dies before the income stream is complete?
 
Per NYCFC Nation on twitter (sorry if a repost and/or for my lack of tweet copying skills)
  • It looks as if NYCFC will release their 2016 Roster Options this Friday.
  • At a minimum, I expect NYCFC to have 8 roster slots available.
  • It also looks as if NYCFC will have 5 free international roster slots.
 
mgarbowski said:
The article linked above claims that the Mets came out ahead and Bonilla lost if you assume an 8% annual rate. I did not check their math. But it wasn't by a huge amount even then and steady 8% is pretty high. Some hit that, but most don't. He maybe could have done better but this was, at the least, a good solid deal for him.
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The real question is this - What rate were the Mets promised by Bernie Madoff when they invested Bonilla's salary to create the annuity?
 
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