I'm really looking forward to our games against TFC. I hope both teams are full strength.
2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Isn't that largely a function of having almost half your games played? The avg won't move much either way any given match day.
Some of it is the rise of n, but there still could have been a noticeable trend if our quality of play had changed, but there wasn't. I wonder what that graph would look like for Seattle last year?
In the end, it answers the question: when do we really know how good this team is. The answer seems to be around halfway through the season.
All valid. I would tease it out this way. The deeper you get into a season the less of an effect every new game has on your PPG average. So somewhere between 1/3 and 2/3 through you will hit a point where the line gets flat with no major squiggles, unless you go on a sustained tear or dive. That's why I added the 5-game rolling average to give a sense of how the team does over the full course.
But there is some room for variance of where you hit your level and last year and this year did meet fairly early despite a seemingly stronger start this year.
Last year we started awful but caught up with a 3-game win streak. This year we have no win streaks, unless you count 2 as a streak, but no horrible sections either. Also last year NYC followed the first 3-game win streak with 2 points in 4 games, which created the dip you see after the lines meet. The low point was the RSL game in early June. At that point the team had 18 points in 15 games for 1.2 PPG. It was reasonable to doubt if they would make the playoffs. But that was followed by a 4-game win streak to get back to level almost immediately.
Yes.
One thing worth pointing out is arguably the biggest difference between this year's results and last year's through the same number of games.
We have far fewer ties. To date, we have tied twice (6-4-2). Last year through 12 games, we had tied 5 times (4-3-5).
The difference in points is 20 this year vs. 17 last year, and about half that difference is due to tying instead of winning some and losing some.
One thing worth pointing out is arguably the biggest difference between this year's results and last year's through the same number of games.
We have far fewer ties. To date, we have tied twice (6-4-2). Last year through 12 games, we had tied 5 times (4-3-5).
The difference in points is 20 this year vs. 17 last year, and about half that difference is due to tying instead of winning some and losing some.
If the first team can stay healthy, and we get some solid reinforcements, there's no reason we cannot average 2pts/game if we play to win. It used to be that you want to draw on the road, but that was developed when wins were worth 2pts, but now a draw doesn't even get you half-pts on the day. Better to approach every game trying to win, if it's late in the match and a tie looks likely (or trailing) then consolidate that single point, but otherwise go for three always. One win and two losses is the same as three ties, but 2wins and a loss is a massive difference towards the standings. And with MLS parity, a good team like ours (ok, good first 11) should expect to win more than we lose.
I don't think we have hit our level yet. Coach was right, we dominated the first 2 games against Orlando and walked away with 0 points. Even when we have had off nights (DC & RSL), the games were even and we wound up with 0 points instead of 1. These usually even out over the course of a season when we get wins on off nights and ties instead of losses.
Subjectively (and looking at a lot of stats), we are an elite team in MLS, but don't quite have the elite point level that should go with our quality right now.
Subjectively (and looking at a lot of stats), we are an elite team in MLS, but don't quite have the elite point level that should go with our quality right now.
We are 2 impact subs away from getting those elite points. Either from bringing guys in that you can count on to score a goal (in the ManUtd Ole Gunnar Solskjaer/Chicharito mold) or to lock down the game without a chance of the other team scoring. The one variable we have worked to perfect this year is killing off games in the last 15min, or rather not giving up a goal, so tactically we're there, we just need a few better subs.
The good news is the Blues are third in the conference and fourth overall while playing an Away-heavy schedule of only 5 at home and 8 on the road.The semi-bad news is more than a third of the league is within a one game swing of overtaking the Bluebirds so that position is precarious. The PPG standings also place them in 3rd in the East and drop them to 5th overall.
Also, the Celestes really need to pick it up at home. They have dropped 5 points at home in only 5 games, which is not particularly good for a team that high in the standings. The two teams ahead of the Pigeons have dropped a combined 6 points in 14 Home games. Gotham City could win 9 straight at home and will have built a Home record 1 point better than TFC and the Fire have combined for so far. If the goal is to make the playoffs, the current Home pace of 2.0 PPG is fine. But a challenge for top of the East will require improvement. Here are the possible results.
Looked at another way, the Blue Hawks have 5 losses in their first 13 games. If they are going to end up in the neighborhood of 60 points, they can probably lose at most another 5 in the final 21 games. They could easily lose 4-5 of their remaining 9 Away games. They might do better, but that would hardly be a surprise. Las Palomas lost 5 of their last 9 Away games last year (after the first 8 Away games last year they had only 2 losses compared to 4 this year). Which means, switching back to the Home perspective, the club might need to go undefeated the rest of the way or lose at most one more to improve on last year and be reasonably certain of avoiding the initial one-game playoff round.
I do not see this team as designed to excel in the playoffs. I see this team being built to excel on an overall everything-being-equal basis. By that I mean that the philosophy seems to be to play in a consistent way that creates more chances for you and less for the opponent, and over a full season that will mean success. But there seems to be no plan to win any specific game when things go awry, Down, 3-0, the Pigeons play the same way they do up 2-0. There is no apparent strategy to play with more urgency when a game starts going the wrong way. I fully understand that manufacturing goals at will is an iffy proposition at best, but when this team either plays poorly, or plays well and suffers a bit of bad luck, it seems to be done for. Winning a set of 3-4 playoff match-ups in a row with that foundation seems to be wishful thinking, and avoiding at least one of those playoff rounds would likely increase the odds of success considerably. Last year 54 points did that, but current indications, while admittedly still early, are that finishing top 2 in the East could require more.
It needs to start now, with 6 of the next 8 at Home, the last 2 of which are against the teams the Blues are chasing — Chicago and Toronto.
I think it is worth considering where NYC finishes in relation to the top West teams. This is not so much for Shield purposes as for a potential MLS Cup Home Field advantage. This is why I’ve added the West PPG standings to the posts this year. The number at the bottom of those charts is the average PPG of each conference.
Finally, here are the year-to-year graph comparisons.
Also, the Celestes really need to pick it up at home. They have dropped 5 points at home in only 5 games, which is not particularly good for a team that high in the standings. The two teams ahead of the Pigeons have dropped a combined 6 points in 14 Home games. Gotham City could win 9 straight at home and will have built a Home record 1 point better than TFC and the Fire have combined for so far. If the goal is to make the playoffs, the current Home pace of 2.0 PPG is fine. But a challenge for top of the East will require improvement. Here are the possible results.
Looked at another way, the Blue Hawks have 5 losses in their first 13 games. If they are going to end up in the neighborhood of 60 points, they can probably lose at most another 5 in the final 21 games. They could easily lose 4-5 of their remaining 9 Away games. They might do better, but that would hardly be a surprise. Las Palomas lost 5 of their last 9 Away games last year (after the first 8 Away games last year they had only 2 losses compared to 4 this year). Which means, switching back to the Home perspective, the club might need to go undefeated the rest of the way or lose at most one more to improve on last year and be reasonably certain of avoiding the initial one-game playoff round.
I do not see this team as designed to excel in the playoffs. I see this team being built to excel on an overall everything-being-equal basis. By that I mean that the philosophy seems to be to play in a consistent way that creates more chances for you and less for the opponent, and over a full season that will mean success. But there seems to be no plan to win any specific game when things go awry, Down, 3-0, the Pigeons play the same way they do up 2-0. There is no apparent strategy to play with more urgency when a game starts going the wrong way. I fully understand that manufacturing goals at will is an iffy proposition at best, but when this team either plays poorly, or plays well and suffers a bit of bad luck, it seems to be done for. Winning a set of 3-4 playoff match-ups in a row with that foundation seems to be wishful thinking, and avoiding at least one of those playoff rounds would likely increase the odds of success considerably. Last year 54 points did that, but current indications, while admittedly still early, are that finishing top 2 in the East could require more.
It needs to start now, with 6 of the next 8 at Home, the last 2 of which are against the teams the Blues are chasing — Chicago and Toronto.
I think it is worth considering where NYC finishes in relation to the top West teams. This is not so much for Shield purposes as for a potential MLS Cup Home Field advantage. This is why I’ve added the West PPG standings to the posts this year. The number at the bottom of those charts is the average PPG of each conference.
Finally, here are the year-to-year graph comparisons.
Good stuff again,
mgarbowski.
I will actually say that I think we are in position to perform better in the playoffs, assuming no key injuries (basically, no injuries to anyone in the first 11). When we have the physicality and athleticism of Ring and Herrera together on the pitch, we're a nightmare team for anyone. Those two together make us extremely strong defensively in a way we aren't otherwise.
We may well end up in 3rd or 4th, but I would take that spot and a rested, healthy Villa and Maxi.
I would like to see us begin making changes earlier in matches where we are down, especially multiple goals. These are opportunities to experiment beyond changing personnel. And I agree we need to develop a real plan B to chase a game.
I would like to see us play much more with some sort of 2 forward setup where Villa plays SS and can play make or finish. The other alternative I'm open to is playing Ucubed in that position and leaving Villa upfront, although he would be there mostly for his poaching instincts rather than playmaking. Basically, acknowledge he's worth nothing around the rest of the field, so no point in him pretending to be. FF redux, as it were.
The last option is really only suitable for dire straits, when all attempts at balance should be forsaken.
mgarbowski. I will actually say that I think we are in position to perform better in the playoffs, assuming no key injuries (basically, no injuries to anyone in the first 11). When we have the physicality and athleticism of Ring and Herrera together on the pitch, we're a nightmare team for anyone. Those two together make us extremely strong defensively in a way we aren't otherwise.
We may well end up in 3rd or 4th, but I would take that spot and a rested, healthy Villa and Maxi.
I would like to see us begin making changes earlier in matches where we are down, especially multiple goals. These are opportunities to experiment beyond changing personnel. And I agree we need to develop a real plan B to chase a game.
I would like to see us play much more with some sort of 2 forward setup where Villa plays SS and can play make or finish. The other alternative I'm open to is playing Ucubed in that position and leaving Villa upfront, although he would be there mostly for his poaching instincts rather than playmaking. Basically, acknowledge he's worth nothing around the rest of the field, so no point in him pretending to be. FF redux, as it were.
The last option is really only suitable for dire straits, when all attempts at balance should be forsaken.
The results are somewhat skewed by the road-heavy schedule...NYCFC doesn't play more than one consecutive game on the road from now until the end of the season. 3 home games coming up and then "away" against NJ. After this brutal road schedule, a lot of home cooking coming up.
The teams that are at the top get it done at home. NYCFC needs to dig deep and absolutely get six points against the Revs and Philly, would put them most likely in second place by the end of the weekend.
4 points out of 4 road games is not bad if you follow it up with 4 wins or 3-0-1 in your next four at home. Look across the river; RBNY is putrid on the road but lights out at home, which is why they are right there.
The teams that are at the top get it done at home. NYCFC needs to dig deep and absolutely get six points against the Revs and Philly, would put them most likely in second place by the end of the weekend.
4 points out of 4 road games is not bad if you follow it up with 4 wins or 3-0-1 in your next four at home. Look across the river; RBNY is putrid on the road but lights out at home, which is why they are right there.
First post of the thread went up 4 weeks ago after 9 games, and just before (what we hope) will be the toughest stretch of schedule this season. At that point NYC had 16 points in 9 games. Based on PPG it was he high point of the season at 1.78. What followed was a stretch of 6 games in 21 days, with the first 4 on the road. The team managed 4 points in the 4 Away games followed by another 4 points in the 2 Home games, going 2-2-2 for 8 points out of 18 (1.33 PPG). Ignoring the lack of rest and missing squad pieces, both of those qualify as barely acceptable borderline results. But allowing for the squad difficulties, most notably the absence of Yangel Herrera for all 6 of these games, and the results become more acceptable. Other notable absences include Matarrita, who only came on as a late sub in the last game and Pirlo, who played 90 minutes total out of 540 due to a mysterious knee injury. There were other, briefer absences during the stretch, including Alexander Ring missing a game due to yellow card accumulation.
Due to these absences, NYC had to go deep into its roster. Here is a list of the non-goalkeepers making $75k base salary or less and their minutes during this stretch compared to the full 15 games:
Base Salary - Minutes Last 6 - Total Minutes
Awuah 53k 0 1
Lopez 75k 265 265
Okoli 52k 105 210
Stertzer 65k 22 39
Sweat 65k 365 625
White 65k 439 1066
What stands out to me is that Lopez, Okoli, Stertzer and Sweat together played 757 of their combined 1139 minutes in 2017 during these 6 games. That's 66% of their minutes in 40% of the games. To be fair Lopez was hurt previously but the other 3 each individually had 50% or more of their minutes in just those 6 games. That's a lot of sub minutes from the very bottom of the team's roster. I excluded White because he's mostly a starter anyway, and could be considered more of a bargain player rather than just cap filler, and he played 41% of his minutes in the 6 games, which is pretty much proportional.
Also notable, Camargo (base salary $99k) played 159 of 176 minutes for 90% of his total.
RJ Allen 174/252 69%.
McNamara 280/453 60%
On to charts and graphs:
First, PPG projections
NYC dropped 6 projected points over this tough stretch.They were sitting at 60.52 after 9 games.
Sample records and possible results:
Finally, the comparative graphs. I think the note here is that after 15 games last year the team had 6 fewer points, and it was the low point of the season. But, they also won the next 4 so the 2017 squad needs to get 7 or more in the next 4 to stay ahead of last year's pace. At some point soon -- probably in 2018 in fact -- it will become unreasonable to expect the team to improve every year.But it still seems a fair expectation this season
Due to these absences, NYC had to go deep into its roster. Here is a list of the non-goalkeepers making $75k base salary or less and their minutes during this stretch compared to the full 15 games:
Base Salary - Minutes Last 6 - Total Minutes
Awuah 53k 0 1
Lopez 75k 265 265
Okoli 52k 105 210
Stertzer 65k 22 39
Sweat 65k 365 625
White 65k 439 1066
What stands out to me is that Lopez, Okoli, Stertzer and Sweat together played 757 of their combined 1139 minutes in 2017 during these 6 games. That's 66% of their minutes in 40% of the games. To be fair Lopez was hurt previously but the other 3 each individually had 50% or more of their minutes in just those 6 games. That's a lot of sub minutes from the very bottom of the team's roster. I excluded White because he's mostly a starter anyway, and could be considered more of a bargain player rather than just cap filler, and he played 41% of his minutes in the 6 games, which is pretty much proportional.
Also notable, Camargo (base salary $99k) played 159 of 176 minutes for 90% of his total.
RJ Allen 174/252 69%.
McNamara 280/453 60%
On to charts and graphs:
First, PPG projections
NYC dropped 6 projected points over this tough stretch.They were sitting at 60.52 after 9 games.
Sample records and possible results:
Finally, the comparative graphs. I think the note here is that after 15 games last year the team had 6 fewer points, and it was the low point of the season. But, they also won the next 4 so the 2017 squad needs to get 7 or more in the next 4 to stay ahead of last year's pace. At some point soon -- probably in 2018 in fact -- it will become unreasonable to expect the team to improve every year.But it still seems a fair expectation this season
I thought it would be interesting to take a look at our games against Western Conference teams and see where we stand, including whether we face higher quality at home or away. Below is the table for the west by points per game, along with where we play that team and the results for the games we have already played.
bold = home; italics = already played
Dallas - away - draw
Sporting KC - home
Portland - home
Houston - home
Vancouver - away
LA Galaxy - away
San Jose - home - win
Seattle - home
Colorado - away
Minnesota - home
RSL - away - loss
bold = home; italics = already played
Dallas - away - draw
Sporting KC - home
Portland - home
Houston - home
Vancouver - away
LA Galaxy - away
San Jose - home - win
Seattle - home
Colorado - away
Minnesota - home
RSL - away - loss
Looking at the East. Here are our remaining games with each team, again listed in order of points per game in the table.
Toronto - home, away
Chicago - home, away
NYCFC
Orlando - no games
Columbus - home
New Jersey - away, home, away
New England - home, away
Montreal - away
Atlanta - no games
Philadelphia - no games
DC United - no games
As you can see, our remaining schedule is top heavy with 4 games against the Top 2, and none against the bottom 3.
Toronto - home, away
Chicago - home, away
NYCFC
Orlando - no games
Columbus - home
New Jersey - away, home, away
New England - home, away
Montreal - away
Atlanta - no games
Philadelphia - no games
DC United - no games
As you can see, our remaining schedule is top heavy with 4 games against the Top 2, and none against the bottom 3.
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