2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[Viewfrom226]

Here's how I see the East at this point. Pretty consistent with the group in the main.

• Top 3 have clearly separated. The optimistic case for catching Chicago would be based on the fact that their record is slightly better than one might expect based on expected goals while ours is notably worse. So, hopefully some reversion to the mean. They also are +1 home games and we are +1 away. If I had to handicap it, I'd say we are slightly less than 50% to catch them, but basically its a coin flip.
  
  
• I think 4 and 5 will be Atlanta and Orlando in some order. Orlando is clearly slipping, but their performances are, on the whole, still good for the year (the dismal effort in Chicago notwithstanding). While they are still +2 home games, they've already taken some of the pain that comes with their early home heavy schedule evening out. Atlanta gets the nod based on the +3 home advantage, though I guess we'll see if that heat/playing style is incompatible and render that "advantage" moot. They've won four in a row there though and its been pretty brutally hot already.
  
  
• For the last spot, I think it is basically a toss-up among NYRB, New England and Columbus. I keep thinking NE will get a run of results because they've played better than their record, but it just hasn't happened so far. Montreal is slightly on the outside looking for me in as they really haven't played well on the whole, though they are +3 home. I could see the argument, though, that their style and Piatti lets them nick points against the run of play.
  
  
• Philly is a clear 9th and DC a clear 10th for me.

Here's where I have the projected points as of today. Three teams in the mid 60s, plus SKC at 61 feels unlikely just based on history, but maybe this is a historical year.

 

[mgarbowski]

And there is now the 538 pound gorilla weighing in on these things, although we've discussed their odd biases against our defense already.

Right now, they have the Big 3 in the East as Toronto (99% to make the playoffs), Chicago (97%) and NYC (92%). After that, it is Atlanta (63%), Columbus (54%), New Jersey (49%), New England (39%), Orlando (37%), Montreal (36%), Philly (23%) and DC (11%).

By the way, they currently rate our offense first in the league and our defense 10th, which is still too low, but at least an improvement.

The 538 model just isn't suited for MLS I think. It was clearly designed for the top 5 European leagues and they use it for MLS even though it makes no sense.*
First, their use of off-season transfer fees as a primary adjustment year-to year is nearly irrelevant to how MLS teams acquire players.
Second, they seem very slow to allow this year's results to modify their preseason ratings. To the extent NYC or Chicago have moved up, for example, it seems to be more because 538 has no choice but to incorporate actual wins and records to date, rather than altering their strength projections based on that same record.
Third, their SPI scores are based on expected goals scored or allowed per game against a "middling team." They actually use Swansea as their example. The problem is that because they don't rate each league against a middling team in that league, every team in MLS has a negative net SPI rating. Which tells us that 538 rates even the best of MLS as fully below average when compared to the top European leagues, which is not as interesting as comparing MLS teams to each other. And when every team is a net negative it seems kind of pointless to look at.

I understand why they would want to build a single model to compare all leagues, but for actual week-to-week measurements in MLS, it's not very interesting.

* They also use it for Liga MX and NWSL where I would guess it is similarly flawed but I don't know enough to have a meaningful opinion.

 

[sbrylski]

Here's how I see the East at this point. Pretty consistent with the group in the main.

• Top 3 have clearly separated. The optimistic case for catching Chicago would be based on the fact that their record is slightly better than one might expect based on expected goals while ours is notably worse. So, hopefully some reversion to the mean. They also are +1 home games and we are +1 away. If I had to handicap it, I'd say we are slightly less than 50% to catch them, but basically its a coin flip.
  
  
• I think 4 and 5 will be Atlanta and Orlando in some order. Orlando is clearly slipping, but their performances are, on the whole, still good for the year (the dismal effort in Chicago notwithstanding). While they are still +2 home games, they've already taken some of the pain that comes with their early home heavy schedule evening out. Atlanta gets the nod based on the +3 home advantage, though I guess we'll see if that heat/playing style is incompatible and render that "advantage" moot. They've won four in a row there though and its been pretty brutally hot already.
  
  
• For the last spot, I think it is basically a toss-up among NYRB, New England and Columbus. I keep thinking NE will get a run of results because they've played better than their record, but it just hasn't happened so far. Montreal is slightly on the outside looking for me in as they really haven't played well on the whole, though they are +3 home. I could see the argument, though, that their style and Piatti lets them nick points against the run of play.
  
  
• Philly is a clear 9th and DC a clear 10th for me.

Here's where I have the projected points as of today. Three teams in the mid 60s, plus SKC at 61 feels unlikely just based on history, but maybe this is a historical year.

View attachment 7209

The only things I'm reasonably confident in is that Toronto, Chicago, and NYCFC make the playoffs, while DCU and Philly do not.

I'll buy low on Montreal (they'll finish higher than 10), but their climb to a playoff spot will not be easy. If Orlando adds Juan Quintero, I don't think they slip out of top 6. And Atlanta, Columbus, and the Red Bulls will not go down easy. There could be 5-6 teams fighting for three spots thru the last 2-3 games. (And people say we need pro/rel to make lower table games interesting...)

 

[Gotham Gator]

Here's what I find interesting about this. The Top 5 teams in this measure now match exactly the Top 5 teams in the table. Further, there are only 5 teams whose rank in GDPG is not within 2 spots of their spot on the table.

- New England are 9th in GDPG and 17th in PPG.
- Philly are 10th in GDPG and 16th in PPG.
- Vancouver are 12th in GDPG and 9th in PPG.
- Orlando are 17th in GDPG and 7th in PPG.
- New Jersey are 18th in GDPG and 14th in PPG.

Notably, the 4 with big differences are all in the East. Orlando and New Jersey are higher in the table than their goal differential would suggest, and Philly and New England are lower. I would not be surprised to see New England and Philly make the playoffs and see Orlando fall below the line. New Jersey is closer, but they could miss too.

 

[Ulrich]

View attachment 7210

Here's what I find interesting about this. The Top 5 teams in this measure now match exactly the Top 5 teams in the table. Further, there are only 5 teams whose rank in GDPG is not within 2 spots of their spot on the table.

- New England are 9th in GDPG and 17th in PPG.
- Philly are 10th in GDPG and 16th in PPG.
- Vancouver are 12th in GDPG and 9th in PPG.
- Orlando are 17th in GDPG and 7th in PPG.
- New Jersey are 18th in GDPG and 14th in PPG.

Notably, the 4 with big differences are all in the East. Orlando and New Jersey are higher in the table than their goal differential would suggest, and Philly and New England are lower. I would not be surprised to see New England and Philly make the playoffs and see Orlando fall below the line. New Jersey is closer, but they could miss too.

I realize GD is a 2-variable factor (GF & GA), but it's crazy to see Colorado and RSL as absolute dumpster fires with Howard and Rimando as their GK's. They must have a serious combination of crappy attack and crappy defenders in front of them for a perfect storm of shittiness.

 

[SoupInNYC]

The 538 model just isn't suited for MLS I think. It was clearly designed for the top 5 European leagues and they use it for MLS even though it makes no sense.*
First, their use of off-season transfer fees as a primary adjustment year-to year is nearly irrelevant to how MLS teams acquire players.
Second, they seem very slow to allow this year's results to modify their preseason ratings. To the extent NYC or Chicago have moved up, for example, it seems to be more because 538 has no choice but to incorporate actual wins and records to date, rather than altering their strength projections based on that same record.
Third, their SPI scores are based on expected goals scored or allowed per game against a "middling team." They actually use Swansea as their example. The problem is that because they don't rate each league against a middling team in that league, every team in MLS has a negative net SPI rating. Which tells us that 538 rates even the best of MLS as fully below average when compared to the top European leagues, which is not as interesting as comparing MLS teams to each other. And when every team is a net negative it seems kind of pointless to look at.

I understand why they would want to build a single model to compare all leagues, but for actual week-to-week measurements in MLS, it's not very interesting.

* They also use it for Liga MX and NWSL where I would guess it is similarly flawed but I don't know enough to have a meaningful opinion.

Do they compare the NWSL to other European men's leagues? Or the European women's leagues?

 

[mgarbowski]

Do they compare the NWSL to other European men's leagues? Or the European women's leagues?

I suppose it's explained somewhere but I'm not motivated enough to find it. But I did look and can see that the SPI ratings of NWSL teams are evenly split between + and - with a couple of 0 in the middle, so they either just compare NWSL teams to each other or to other women's teams. Since theirs is the only women's league in the system I would guess it's just them.

 

[LionNYC]

Reading all these posts, I'm even more saddened by the stupid loss to RSL and the tie against New England. Both of those go in our favor and we're sitting at 35 points, sitting second behind Toronto only due to a one goal differential point.

(From our current GD add +2 for the RSL match and +1 for the NE match).

 

[Ulrich]

Reading all these posts, I'm even more saddened by the stupid loss to RSL and the tie against New England. Both of those go in our favor and we're sitting at 35 points, sitting second behind Toronto only due to a one goal differential point.

(From our current GD add +2 for the RSL match and +1 for the NE match).

Even just a tie vs RSL and win vs NE for an additional 3 pts would be incredibly beneficial.

That's RSL game is pretty much the last time PV voluntarily screwed up the lineup (choosing not to remember/list the Stertzer Cup gaffe) - since then, the only massive issue was the NE game when he went 5 in the back and voila, we drop points.

The Atlanta loss was a perfect storm by the players to get blitzed over a 7 min stretch.

 

[LionNYC]

Even just a tie vs RSL and win vs NE for an additional 3 pts would be incredibly beneficial.

That's RSL game is pretty much the last time PV voluntarily screwed up the lineup (choosing not to remember/list the Stertzer Cup gaffe) - since then, the only massive issue was the NE game when he went 5 in the back and voila, we drop points.

The Atlanta loss was a perfect storm by the players to get blitzed over a 7 min stretch.

Ben Sweat, celebrated at the derby. Victimized for not closing out that Rowe cross.

 

[Ulrich]

Ben Sweat, celebrated at the derby. Victimized for not closing out that Rowe cross.

All true, but damn, lofted crosses not on net don't score on their own, somebody had to redirect it.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

I realize GD is a 2-variable factor (GF & GA), but it's crazy to see Colorado and RSL as absolute dumpster fires with Howard and Rimando as their GK's. They must have a serious combination of crappy attack and crappy defenders in front of them for a perfect storm of shittiness.

IMO, at this point in time, Howard is one to 1.5 SD above the average MLS keeper - roughly equal to SJ to me. Rimando is, at best, an average MLS keeper.

Doesn't change what you're saying about their respective teams being crap, though.

 

[Viewfrom226]

Here's some more fun with numbers on a quiet day...

Last year, our ten most used outfield players played a total of 21,749 minutes. This year, our top ten has played 12,243, which translates into 24,486 over a 34 match season. That's an extra 274 minutes per guy, or just over three matches. That strikes me a huge difference, though I haven't studied season to season variation on this.

• The biggest reason is that we immediately locked down a number of positions from day one. 7 of the 10 spots have had "written in pen" starters from day one (Callens, Chanot, Ring, Maxi, Jack, Villa and Wallace). Those seven have been off the field for only an average of 137 minutes or basically 1.5 matches for the entire season.
  
  
• Last year the only guys who were played at anything approaching that pace were Villa, Brillant and Pirlo. After the three of them, there was nobody who wasn't off the field for at least 8.5 matches (see, it only FELT like Jason Hernandez was always playing).
  
  
• I do think, however, it also reflects that we've been pretty lucky with injuries this year. Matarrita is really the only guy who would be clear first 11 who has missed meaningful time, though Maxi now threatens to join him. I haven't done any analysis, but my gut is that we've lost among the fewest matches to injuries from our best 11 in MLS so far. Part of that may be good player selection and training, but there's almost certainly an element of luck there. That is probably the thing I worry most about for the second half, particularly at CB where we've been very fortunate so far.
  
  
• The development of Herrera does mitigate my concern about injuries in the second half hampering performance relative to the first half because of how little he's played so far (421 mins) relative to how much he'll play in the second half.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I think Chicago will be in the playoffs this year, but I don't see them really fighting for a top-2 seed. They've been great at home, but crap on the road at this point and have played even games to this point both home and away (while we have played 5 at home and 7 away).

There are two stretches Chicago has coming up that I think are crucial for them. The first starts Thursday and still includes a bunch of home games, but against some better teams than they've faced so far (outside of Columbus earlier and an out-of-form Seattle):
Home against Dallas Win
At Orlando Draw
Home against Atlanta Win
At NER Win
Home against Orlando Win

Shortly after that they have a brutal road game stretch with 5/6 on the road:
At Portland
At NYCFC
At SKC
Home against NER
At Columbus
At Montreal

I do think Chicago is a talented team, but I'm seeing them much more as a 3/4 seed, at least until I see how they handle these two stretches.

Wanted to bring this back up as at the time I wasn't sure what to make of Chicago, but they've totally convinced me now. I bolded their results in that first grouping above. And it isn't just the results that's convincing me, its how they are doing it. I know Orlando isn't in particularly good form as of late, especially without Larin, but that was a complete dismantling this past weekend.

Still interested to see how they handle that other upcoming road stretch, but obviously they are a contender for top 2 in the East (and in turn the Shield) now.

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

Wanted to bring this back up as at the time I wasn't sure what to make of Chicago, but they've totally convinced me now. I bolded their results in that first grouping above. And it isn't just the results that's convincing me, its how they are doing it. I know Orlando isn't in particularly good form as of late, especially without Larin, but that was a complete dismantling this past weekend.

Still interested to see how they handle that other upcoming road stretch, but obviously they are a contender for top 2 in the East (and in turn the Shield) now.

Its pretty cool that in MLS, you used to be able to dominate with nothing more than a good attacking corps, but now its moved into the era where you need a great midfield to dominate the league.

Chicago went from dud to stud by adding two midfielders.

 

[Ulrich]

Its pretty cool that in MLS, you used to be able to dominate with nothing more than a good attacking corps, but now its moved into the era where you need a great midfield to dominate the league.

Chicago went from dud to stud by adding two midfielders.

Don't discount the contribution of their coach. Veljko Paunovic is a well traveled former player and he led Serbia to the title of the 2015 U20WC. He arrived at Chicago and immediately began cleaning house and bringing in players to fit his system. It took him one year longer than Patrick Vieira to start seeing results. The guy is the real deal, and he happens to have some great players to work with.

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

Don't discount the contribution of their coach. Veljko Paunovic is a well traveled former player and he led Serbia to the title of the 2015 U20WC. He arrived at Chicago and immediately began cleaning house and bringing in players to fit his system. It took him one year longer than Patrick Vieira to start seeing results. The guy is the real deal, and he happens to have some great players to work with.

He was the coach last year too. they sucked
He was the coach pre-schweini, they sucked

I'm pretty sure its the players.

 

[Ulrich]

He was the coach last year too. they sucked
He was the coach pre-schweini, they sucked

I'm pretty sure its the players.

So you think a coach can change a shitty organization in one day? Chicago was such a mess with the absolute worst assortment of players that didn't compliment each other or the system he was trying to install. He made cuts immediately and stockpiled GAM/TAM, and he's now reaping the benefits. I not discounting the additions of Dax and Bastion, but I'm saying that the system they're running is a very classy passing game that was not part of Chicago's DNA before the coach arrived.

 

[mgarbowski]

I agree it's the players, but as much as I credit the 2 mids, they also added a forward who leads the league in goals, with a big gap between him and the next guy.
I also think the coach gets credit because I think he was involved in building the team, but in the end, it is the players.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Its pretty cool that in MLS, you used to be able to dominate with nothing more than a good attacking corps, but now its moved into the era where you need a great midfield to dominate the league.

Chicago went from dud to stud by adding two midfielders.

3. Dax, Juninho & Schweinsteiger.

Oh, and the league's leading goal scorer.

(sidenote - I remember seeing Nikolic vs. LFC in Europa season before last and briefly thinking "why didn't we get him instead of Nemec?")