What's also interesting, is that if you take away the games we've played against the table, ATL moves up to #1 with a GDPG of 1, FCD moves up to #2 with a GDPG of .778, and Philly moves up to #5 with a GDPG of .5454.
2017 Stats Thread
- Thread starter Gotham Gator
- Start date
Moving in a different direction. Here are the odds for our next 3-game stretch, based on predictions published on the 538 website.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/
We play Philly after New England next week.
Sorry. Odds are correct. Team is just wrong.
These appear, with teams corrected, to undervalue our chances. Add up the chances we get 5 or more points and it's 50.9% We can get that with a win and 2 ties. Two wins nets 6 and anything better is, better. I can't put a specific number on it but I would give us more of a chance than that with 2 home games.
I don't disagree. I would be disappointed with fewer than 5, and I am hoping for 7.
I lost the original grid for the 3-game stretch we just finished, but I went back to my original post (below). Not too far off as it turns out, but then again, it did not take into account that we rested our best players against RSL, and we would have had more points without doing that.
One problem with the 538 analysis is that it still sees us as a below average defensive team. I don't know what data support that, because we are 5th in goals against per game and (as of last week) 1st is expected goals against per game.
Overall I can't argue too hard with the odds on this table:
http://playoffstatus.com/mls/easternstandings.html
It has us with second best chance of finishing first in the East after Toronto, and second lowest chance of not making the playoffs also behind Toronto.
But I cannot figure out why they say we do not control our own destiny for first place. TFC has a 6 point lead on us. We have an extra game to play and 2 games left against Toronto. If we win out, and if they win out except for losing twice to us, we would finish 3 points ahead. It's a meaningless point this early in the season but I'm trying to figure out if my logic is faulty. I've never caught them in a mistake before.
http://playoffstatus.com/mls/easternstandings.html
It has us with second best chance of finishing first in the East after Toronto, and second lowest chance of not making the playoffs also behind Toronto.
But I cannot figure out why they say we do not control our own destiny for first place. TFC has a 6 point lead on us. We have an extra game to play and 2 games left against Toronto. If we win out, and if they win out except for losing twice to us, we would finish 3 points ahead. It's a meaningless point this early in the season but I'm trying to figure out if my logic is faulty. I've never caught them in a mistake before.
Maybe it's because if Orlando wins out, the best we can do is end up level on points and it goes to tiebreakers.
That's probably it, but they're going to have to figure out a way to really turn around their goal differential for them to have a chance. We're looking like a possible monster in that tiebreaker category.
I disagree, but at this point the argument is conceptual and about the rules, instead of about the application of the rules.
If you limit the analysis to numbers constrained by the schedule you're right. I see no reason to do so but it's their site so that's that.
Excuse the glitch in the numbering of the teams on the left side. Everything else is correct.
The team has slipped a bit, largely due to allowing more goals per game. They gave up 11 in the first 10 games, and then 8 in the last 5 (1.6 GA/G) . That's really quite poor, although a small sample and we all know the excuses. It's also better than the team managed for the entire season last year, so it's good to know the worst stretch to date is still better than last year as a whole defensively.
That chart should show Orlando more respect
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At their* home.
We really do play down to the fucking competition. Did the same thing last year.
There are three lost points so far that really annoy me: 1 against RSL (even with a weakened side still should have gotten a tie, especially scoring 4 minutes into the game) and the two against the Revs (ugh). Having those 3 points would make NYCFC second in the table and in line to have 30 points at the midway point (with 27 points now, need 1 win in next 2 games) - putting them on target for 60 points and a sure top 2 seed.
In any case they will have to improve in the second half for that top 2 seed and stop blowing results.
In any case they will have to improve in the second half for that top 2 seed and stop blowing results.
