2020 CCL

adam said:
Just completed Phase 1 of my 3 part breakdown. How did the teams fare?

1. ATL 2-1-0. (And won USOC & CC). Big surprise was the win in Portland.
2. DCU 1-3-0. Wow. Basically eliminated themselves from the 1st place conversation with this stretch. Now they have to play their asses off for a home match.
3. NJRB 1-2-1. They are also out of the 1st place race.
4. NYCFC 4-0-0 (+7GD). Things couldn’t have gone any better (injuries & suspensions aside). Became the favorite over this stretch and still have games in hand at home over Intl break when no other teams from this group play.
5. PHI 2-1-0. They kept pace with ATL. Big test is their 3 away games in 9 days coming up in Phase 3.
Click to expand...
LAFC at home obviously huge — if they lose that, can imagine a scenario where NYC only needs 1 or 2 points against philly and ATL to clinch 1st place.
 
FredMertz said:
LAFC at home obviously huge — if they lose that, can imagine a scenario where NYC only needs 1 or 2 points against philly and ATL to clinch 1st place.
Click to expand...
If Philly wins the Division with their remaining schedule I will be both impressed and shocked. Only 5 games left, compared to 6 for ATL and 7 for us. Philadelphia has only 2 home games left against the 2 best road teams in the league (LAFC and NYC), and visit solid home teams RB and SJ, plus Columbus. They could very well manage a couple of wins, but there are no near-certain wins in that set of games. Maybe they shock and beat LAFC, but more likely let's say maybe a draw there, a win in Columbus and draws in the other 2 road games. That's 6 (57 total) points going into Decision Day, 60 max at season end, and frankly somewhat optimistic.
Meanwhile Atlanta has 4 extremely likely wins. Atlanta, a great home team, gets to host Columbus, SJ and New England, none of whom are great road teams (though the Revs improved a bit since Arena took over), and are Away to Cincinnati, NYC and the Impact. That's 4 very likely wins at least. Then let's say we beat them (not a given but quite likely chance) and they draw the Impact. That's 13 points and 61 total at season end. Their decision day game is home to the Revs and I already gave ATL that win.
That has us aiming for 62 points. It has to start with winning all the home games, including Atlanta. That is 62 points right away, but it does require beating Atlanta and maintaining a 7-game win streak. All else the same, a draw against Atlanta drops us to 60 and Atlanta up to 62, which requires winning a remaining road game to overcome that. Dallas and the Union are both excellent, above 2 PPG at home. New England is 1.60 including the pre-Arena days.
My bottom line is if NYCFC wins out at home including Atlanta, then the rest probably takes care of itself. Alternatively any 4 wins as long as 1 is Atlanta does it. Disclaimer: no guarantees, etc., etc, but these are reasonable possibilities. If the Union beat LAFC or Atlanta drops points at Home or in Cincinnati, then everything changes, for worse or better.

By the way, all of the above is why I was rooting for a Union win last night moreso than even a draw.
 
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adam said:
So this is how I see the East Race/CCL Race shaping up:

I broke it down into 3 parts. Pre-International Break. International break. Post-International Break.

PRE-INTERNATIONAL BREAK

  • Looks like Philly has the easiest schedule over this 2 week period with no mid-week matches and 2 of 3 games at home.
  • Atlanta has the toughest schedule with 5 matches crammed into 18 days, with 3 of them away. Also, their 2 home matches are the Campeones Cup and USOC final. I can see them fielding a B team for the CC, but they will be bringing their best for the USOC final and chance at they only trophy they have not yet earned in their 2.5 years in the league.
  • DCU has the next hardest schedule with 3 of 4 away and 1 midweek match.
  • NYCFC and NJRB have pretty much the same schedule with 2 home and 2 away, 1 mid-week match, and 1 of those matches versus each other. I give the nod on toughness to NJRB who has to play at DCU and at NYCFC, while their home vs NER (tough match) and COL (easy). NYCFC hosts NJ & CLB (easy) and is away to CIN (easy) and VAN (easy). *I don't think any match is ever easy, but these teams are not in good form.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. DCU
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. PHI

View attachment 10111


INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

Only NYCFC play during the break. They have 2 home matches versus NER and TOR. Both tough matchups, but very winnable at home. My only worry is we'll be short-handed if our players go off to play for the NTs.

View attachment 10112


POST-INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

  • Once again ATL has the most condensed schedule with 5 matches in 16 days and 6 total in the last 3 weeks. 3 are home and 3 are away. They host CLB, SJ, and NER. 2 of those 3 are tough matchups, but ATL is pretty strong at home. Their 3 away are versus CIN, NYCFC & MTL. 1 difficult, 1 medium, and 1 easy. But no matter the difficulty of opponents, when the schedule gets congested, it's hard to field strong teams against them all. (We learned that the hard way in the beginning of the season). Lucky for us too they play us on the road after 4 matches in 12 games.
  • Philly has a very tough schedule with 5 matches, 3 of them being away. Worse their 2 home matches are against LAFC and NYCFC, 2 of the top teams in the league. They are away to NJRB, SJ, and CLB; 2 of those are very strong as well. This may be the toughest stretch of any of the teams on the list.
  • DCU is the only team with 4 matches and no mid-week matchups. They are home to Seattle and Cincy. Seattle represents a tough out as they fight for playoff positioning in the West. They are away to NJRB and POR. Seems that even with the lighter schedule 3 of their 4 matches are real tough matchups.
  • NJRB plays 5 matches with 1 mid-week game. 3 away and 2 are home. Their 2 home matches are versus PHI & DCU, both teams towards the top of the East fighting them for playoff positioning. Their 3 away matches includes a trip to the Pacific Northwest to play Seattle and Portland (one of those a mid-week match). They end away to Montreal who is battling for a playoff spot. I don't see 1 match on their schedule I would feel confidant about 3 points.
  • NYCFC also has 5 matches with 1 mid-week match. And also has 2 home and 3 away. Their home matches are against ATL and SJ, both very tough teams. Their away matches are versus Dallas (7th in West), NER (very hot), and PHI (currently top in the East). None of these are easy matches and should really test the team down the stretch.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. PHI
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. DCU


View attachment 10113
Click to expand...

Completed part 2 of the breakdown. As expected we were short handed for the international break. I was hoping for all 6 points, but we wound up with 4.

Since I started tracking:

NYC 5-0-1
ATL 2-1-0
PHI 2-1-0
NJ 1-2-1
DCU 1-3-0

Here we are in the final stretch. NYC has the lead for the CCL spot (that’s what this thread is about). NJ & DCU have been eliminated from contention. But with NYC playing PHI & ATL in the last few matches, anything can happen.

Also, if ATL manages to win, based on the best 2nd place teams in the west sitting 6 points back of NYC, 2nd place in East would also be 3rd in SS and get in.
 
UPDATED. Here are the 4 teams that qualify directly.
  • US Open Cup Champion - Atlanta
  • 1st Place in Western Conference - LAFC
  • 1st Place in Eastern Conference - NYC (75%), Atlanta (22%) or Philly (3%)*
  • MLS Cup Champion
If (1) a single club qualifies under more than one of the criteria above or (2) a Canadian club qualifies under any of the criteria above, then the highest placed U.S. team in the Supporters Shield standings that has not otherwise qualified will get the unfilled spot.

The 4 highest ranked teams in each conference that do not qualify for Champions League will play in the Leagues Cup in 2020.

Note that aside from LAFC, Minnesota is the only team from the West that can pass NYCFC in the Supporters’ Shield standings, and it would take Minnesota winning its last 3 and NYCFC losing its last 3. This means that barring that extremely unlikely occurrence, NYC will make the CCL if it finishes 2nd to Atlanta in the East.

* - % from 538.
 
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Gotham Gator said:
UPDATED. Here are the 4 teams that qualify directly.
  • US Open Cup Champion - Atlanta
  • 1st Place in Western Conference - LAFC
  • 1st Place in Eastern Conference - NYC (75%), Atlanta (22%) or Philly (3%)*
  • MLS Cup Champion
If (1) a single club qualifies under more than one of the criteria above or (2) a Canadian club qualifies under any of the criteria above, then the highest placed U.S. team in the Supporters Shield standings that has not otherwise qualified will get the unfilled spot.

The 4 highest ranked teams in each conference that do not qualify for Champions League will play in the Leagues Cup in 2020.

* - % from 538.
Click to expand...
Given we have guaranteed finishing ahead of everyone in the West except LAFC and Minnesota, and just 1 points clinches over the Loons, we essentially have a 97% chance of being in CCL next year. Just finish ahead of the Union.
 
mgarbowski said:
Given we have guaranteed finishing ahead of everyone in the West except LAFC and Minnesota, and just 1 points clinches over the Loons, we essentially have a 97% chance of being in CCL next year. Just finish ahead of the Union.
Click to expand...
There is a small chance that we finish 2nd behind Philly and ahead of Atlanta that cuts into that 97% chance somewhat, but not by very much.

Even if we finish 4th in the Supporters' Shield (or 3rd behind Philly), there is very strong probability that that one of us, LAFC, Atlanta or Philly win the Cup; in that scenario we will also win a spot in CCL.
 
UPDATED. Here are the 4 teams that qualify directly.
  • US Open Cup Champion - Atlanta
  • 1st Place in Western Conference - LAFC
  • 1st Place in Eastern Conference - NYCFC!
  • MLS Cup Champion*
If (1) a single club qualifies under more than one of the criteria above or (2) a Canadian club qualifies under any of the criteria above, then the highest placed U.S. team in the Supporters Shield standings that has not otherwise qualified will get the unfilled spot.

The 4 highest ranked teams in each conference that do not qualify for Champions League will play in the Leagues Cup in 2020.

* - If any of LAFC, NYCFC, Atlanta or Toronto win MLS Cup, then the final CCL spot will go to one of Philly, Minnesota or Seattle.
 
Interesting quirk. Apparently the Eastern Conference winner has done better than the MLS Cup winner in CCL as of late. If we were to win the MLS Cup, that would be our qualifying spot so we'd drop from 5th to 8th. Luckily 8th is still Pot 1, but if it were 9th or lower, we would have a tougher CCL group if we won the MLS Cup.
 
hatt91 said:
But the teams are owned by MLS. And the dispute is between the players and the league. The players will not play for any team until the dispute is resolved
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honestly if there is a dispute they would of left in January transfer window ( international players really). but for kicks, i mean if say CFG wants nycfc to play in CCL i think they technically can as long as USSF is cool with it as they get the spots and then grants them to who they want representing US soccer.

though i guess by doing so it defeats the whole point of the dispute if some players still wanting to play in a non MLS tournament.
 
My post was sort of tongue in cheek black humor, and I do think it is possible that even if there is a labor stoppage the teams could play in CCL. But I really have no idea and wouldn't predict either way in any seriousness. I think it is up to the union probably. They could take the position that their dispute is with the league and that non-league play is separate and not subject to any labor action. It possibly helps that I expect most clubs don't make any money off CCL unless they get pretty deep, if at all. It could costs clubs more money by playing. OTOH the union could take a no compromise impose-the-most-pain position and then CCL would be out. I couldn't guess better than a coin flip, and this all assumes we're dealing with a strike and not a lockout, about which I also can only guess. I suppose it is not inconceivable the players strike MLS only, then the owners lock out for CCL. We better win MLS Cup this year.
 
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