I don't think Lee's job is in danger at all. I think Cushing probably stays regardless of remaining results, but I'm not super confident of that.
Maybe 60, 65%. A few weeks ago I would have put it at least 80% he stays even if no playoffs.
I don't think this has anything to do with where NYCFC is on the CFG hierarchy. CFG wants and expects its clubs to win, and they're not going to let poor performance slide for the middle or bottom of the list. I do think CFG understands the realities of a semi-hard cap league and losing > half of the 2021 squad in about 15 months and veteran players costing more and younger replacements being less reliable etc. I also think they rely on analytics and see that a team that generates and allows chances like this team has "should" have 9-10 more points and the likelihood of underperforming this much is a 1000-to-one shot and and I don't think they blame that on David or Nick. I think if they believed Nick was driving players away he would be gone by now. I also think they see that young player development might have stalled and I know everyone is disappointed with Talles, and I'm not sure how much of that blame they assign to Nick, and this is why my confidence that he stays no matter what has diminished some.
I don't know any of this. I'm also not saying it is the right approach (though I agree with much of it). But this is how I think CFG thinks and operates.
Everyone, including me until 5 minutes ago, misremembers what NYCFC said when Kreis left. They did not say that making the playoffs is a hard line for the club and any coach at any time. They were a bit smarter and subtler than that.
Instead they said, "
Prior to the start of the season, it was agreed with the coaching team that the securing of a playoff place was an appropriate target for this year. A win rate of less than one in three games and a points tally which was the second lowest in the league is clearly
not in line with the targets that were agreed."
We don't know what targets were agreed with Nick or if they were modified due to ongoing developments like losing Pereira. They can make up and massage a justification for anything they want to do.
As for Talles not playing, they are definitely disappointed in him specifically, and I believe they prefer he would develop as a 9 because that makes him more valuable. I think they're going to try for a reset and give him a chance again at 9 next year, maybe,
maybe as a dual 9 with Bakrar because Lee did note in that interview a few weeks ago he flourished in that setup in the past. Or they just want to make them compete for time at 9. That they are not playing him now as a winger suggests 2 things to me besides what I just wrote, (1) they are trying to shock, shame, anger, whatever him into being better, and (2) Nick was maybe told he can prioritize this over playing Talles as a winger just to scratch into the playoffs.