2023 Roster and Transfer Discussion Thread

[JCMore]

I think CFG is trying to build a fancy stadium in Queens, NY… which makes me think we are higher up the totem poll that many people here believe. I think the club is basically trying to acquire as many Garber Bucks as it can by buying cheap and selling up until the fancy stadium in Queens is built. Then the bucks will fly for what will hopefully be an NYC dynasty. Or atleast that’s what I’m manifesting.

 

[moogoo]

Right. And by the way -- I think David Lee is more deserving of being fired than Nick. Obviously no one expects that to happen, but I put more blame for this season on the front office than I do on the coaching staff.

Lee definitely could have and should have done better. But, i stil think cushing is more responsible for the team's lack of results.

cushing's only excuse is "i didn't have a full roster and had to rely on II players and homegrowns". No. he had players and CHOSE to play II players and homegrowns. For whatever reason, many of our best players have regressed with possibly Parks, Martins, Chanot, and Gabby being the only ones who did not. Nearly every game, we had a different starting XI. That's his decision. The team was never able to build any consistency or rhythm because we always had a different lineup. Our more defensive strategy has also hurt us more than helped us. These are all coaching decisions and coaching responsibilities.

as far as i'm concerned, both should be let go. but my concern is who will we get to replace them? bad enough we've had a coaching carousel since forever. I was really hoping we could put an end to that...

 

[KevinJRogers]

I think CFG is trying to build a fancy stadium in Queens, NY… which makes me think we are higher up the totem poll that many people here believe. I think the club is basically trying to acquire as many Garber Bucks as it can by buying cheap and selling up until the fancy stadium in Queens is built. Then the bucks will fly for what will hopefully be an NYC dynasty. Or atleast that’s what I’m manifesting.

I think this is in the ballpark (har har). In the meantime, I think there was quite a bit of wishful thinking which went into the roster this year, along with some assumptions -- some of which were not particularly unreasonable -- about what we could expect from certain players (Talles Magno at striker being first among them) or what they were worth (Santi may have been overpaid as a DP).

Any way around it, things certainly haven't panned out. It's entirely justifiable to ask how much of that is poor coaching rather than poor roster construction. And there's no denying the bottom line: teams are not afraid of us. We don't put anyone on their back foot, let alone run them off the pitch. Which is a shame, because I think we have the personnel to do it now. We're good and solid enough at the back to allow the midfield and forwards to run wild.

Instead, it's this flat, boring product and the matches just go sideways. Every opponent knows it. They can kind of take the day off, allow us to kick it around the midfield, tighten up when we get in the final third and then just counter when we get frustrated and give possession away. It's almost a guaranteed draw and an easy point if you just show up, and with a break or two you can snag three points without any kind of extraordinary effort.

The million dollar question is whether Nick is shackled into playing that style of ball because it's the CFG Way (although Pep would have a heart attack to hear that) or it's just the way he sees the game. Certainly, from my perspective I can't understand why he didn't start Talles Magno on the left wing and Santi on the right the last match. Were Talles Magno to crap out again you could always sub him off and then send Mati out there, or Richy or whoever. But to my mind it was worth a shot to see what would happen with Talles Magno, Mounsef Bakrar and Santi Rodriguez together across the front.

I thought that's what we've been waiting for.

So, as much as I like Nick and thought he was our guy from the start, I have questions now too. And it pains me to say that. I think he has enormous potential as a head coach. I don't think anyone can doubt his facility for the X's and O's, whether it translates to effective play or not. He understands the game very well, tactically speaking. But there's more to it than that. And I'm not sure he's in the right place mentally to find that deeper level.

 

[mgarbowski]

I don't think Lee's job is in danger at all. I think Cushing probably stays regardless of remaining results, but I'm not super confident of that.
Maybe 60, 65%. A few weeks ago I would have put it at least 80% he stays even if no playoffs.

I don't think this has anything to do with where NYCFC is on the CFG hierarchy. CFG wants and expects its clubs to win, and they're not going to let poor performance slide for the middle or bottom of the list. I do think CFG understands the realities of a semi-hard cap league and losing > half of the 2021 squad in about 15 months and veteran players costing more and younger replacements being less reliable etc. I also think they rely on analytics and see that a team that generates and allows chances like this team has "should" have 9-10 more points and the likelihood of underperforming this much is a 1000-to-one shot and and I don't think they blame that on David or Nick. I think if they believed Nick was driving players away he would be gone by now. I also think they see that young player development might have stalled and I know everyone is disappointed with Talles, and I'm not sure how much of that blame they assign to Nick, and this is why my confidence that he stays no matter what has diminished some.

I don't know any of this. I'm also not saying it is the right approach (though I agree with much of it). But this is how I think CFG thinks and operates.

Everyone, including me until 5 minutes ago, misremembers what NYCFC said when Kreis left. They did not say that making the playoffs is a hard line for the club and any coach at any time. They were a bit smarter and subtler than that. Instead they said, "Prior to the start of the season, it was agreed with the coaching team that the securing of a playoff place was an appropriate target for this year. A win rate of less than one in three games and a points tally which was the second lowest in the league is clearly not in line with the targets that were agreed."
We don't know what targets were agreed with Nick or if they were modified due to ongoing developments like losing Pereira. They can make up and massage a justification for anything they want to do.

As for Talles not playing, they are definitely disappointed in him specifically, and I believe they prefer he would develop as a 9 because that makes him more valuable. I think they're going to try for a reset and give him a chance again at 9 next year, maybe, maybe as a dual 9 with Bakrar because Lee did note in that interview a few weeks ago he flourished in that setup in the past. Or they just want to make them compete for time at 9. That they are not playing him now as a winger suggests 2 things to me besides what I just wrote, (1) they are trying to shock, shame, anger, whatever him into being better, and (2) Nick was maybe told he can prioritize this over playing Talles as a winger just to scratch into the playoffs.

 

[KevinJRogers]

I think they're going to try for a reset and give him a chance again at 9 next year, maybe, maybe as a dual 9 with Bakrar because Lee did note in that interview a few weeks ago he flourished in that setup in the past.

I've thought all along Talles Magno in a dual striker role presents some intriguing possibilities. We didn't have the true nine we needed in order to really pull it off, but Bakrar has shown us enough to believe we have one now.

It would have been nice to see us try it when we still had Héber, but alas . . .

 

[Gotham Gator]

I think the situation we find ourselves in this season has a lot to do with a ton of one-off events converging at the same time and that situation not being well managed as a whole.

• We lost Callens because he wanted Europe.
• We lost Sean because he was looking for a big payday.
• We lost Thiago A. because he wanted minutes to develop.
• We lost Tinnerholm because he was going to make more $$$ going home.
• Seattle offered serious Garberbucks for Heber, who was underperforming and on a large salary. We couldn't say no.
• We lost Maxi to a retirement move, got him back late, and then lost him again.
• Qatar offered ridiculous real bucks to Gabby and to us, and neither could say no.
• The Club thought (reasonably) the Talles Magno experience could work at striker - it did not.
• The Club wanted a second striker and swung and missed.

The point is that while problems like the above happen each year, we seem to have had an unusual number of them between the end of last season through today. That's a lot for any club to deal with.

Which is not to say we couldn't have done better or that none of that was self inflicted. We should have signed a striker before the season. The only players we replaced from the above before the season were Tinnerholm and Johnson.

We did manage to make Santi permanent, resign Pellegrini, and sign Cufre to shore up LB, but those were mostly treading water. The only piece of good news that led to improvement over 2022 was getting Sands back from the highlands.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I think the situation we find ourselves in this season has a lot to do with a ton of one-off events converging at the same time and that situation not being well managed as a whole.

• We lost Callens because he wanted Europe.
• We lost Sean because he was looking for a big payday.
• We lost Thiago A. because he wanted minutes to develop.
• We lost Tinnerholm because he was going to make more $$$ going home.
• Seattle offered serious Garberbucks for Heber, who was underperforming and on a large salary. We couldn't say no.
• We lost Maxi to a retirement move, got him back late, and then lost him again.
• Qatar offered ridiculous real bucks to Gabby and to us, and neither could say no.
• The Club thought (reasonably) the Talles Magno experience could work at striker - it did not.
• The Club wanted a second striker and swung and missed.

The point is that while problems like the above happen each year, we seem to have had an unusual number of them between the end of last season through today. That's a lot for any club to deal with.

Which is not to say we couldn't have done better or that none of that was self inflicted. We should have signed a striker before the season. The only players we replaced from the above before the season were Tinnerholm and Johnson.

We did manage to make Santi permanent, resign Pellegrini, and sign Cufre to shore up LB, but those were mostly treading water. The only piece of good news that led to improvement over 2022 was getting Sands back from the highlands.

Yeah I think we just had some bad luck this season with the salary cap forcing our hand in outgoing transfers, players deciding to move on, plus bad luck on the field.

We've been awarded one penalty kick all season. One of 7 teams in MLS to be awarded one or fewer. There have been 103 penalties awarded in MLS this season -- we've received one of them. Last year we received 9 PKs, T-5th most in MLS.

According to American Soccer Analysis, we have an xGoal of 31.97, so we're underperforming that by nearly five goals. Our xGoalsAllowed is 30.10, so we're underperforming our goals allowed by nearly 5. That means we're unperforming by a net of almost 10 goals.

We could -- and should -- be playing better. Our work in the final third speaks for itself. But if we play this season again, odds are we are a lot better. Odds are we get more PKs, score more goals, and even concede fewer goals. It's been a year where everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. Typified no more than by Maxi rupturing his ACL after four games back.

I do think this thing went sideways in early summer when players started to lose confidence because of the losing streak. We were doing fine early in the season, but we went on that losing road trip and never recovered.

 

[KevinJRogers]

It's been a year where everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. Typified no more than by Maxi rupturing his ACL after four games back.

I fully agree with both this and Gotham Gator 's comment. It's been a tough year, no doubt, and there have been lots of lessons learned. Given the confluence of events, I think it's not unreasonable to argue for Nick and David Lee to get a pass and get a full season next year to put it right.

But just one year. And we need to do better than simply finish higher up the table. We need to be fun to watch. We need to see the squad be more aggressive, more determined to score, more willing to really use all of their talent and play to win. The roster we have right now is good enough to beat most teams in MLS if they play up to their potential. For whatever reason, too many guys just haven't been good enough.

Another season of underperformance and I think we'll have an answer as to why.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I fully agree with both this and Gotham Gator 's comment. It's been a tough year, no doubt, and there have been lots of lessons learned. Given the confluence of events, I think it's not unreasonable to argue for Nick and David Lee to get a pass and get a full season next year to put it right.

But just one year. And we need to do better than simply finish higher up the table. We need to be fun to watch. We need to see the squad be more aggressive, more determined to score, more willing to really use all of their talent and play to win. The roster we have right now is good enough to beat most teams in MLS if they play up to their potential. For whatever reason, too many guys just haven't been good enough.

Another season of underperformance and I think we'll have an answer as to why.

While I think this is a fair comment (we have been to the playoffs 8 straight seasons, and were in the conference final as recently as 10 months ago), I just feel like the vibes are so off that they're going to pull the ripcord on a new coach. On some level, I do think some of the underperformance is coaching related.

The lack of killer instinct in the final third, the propensity to pass backwards and not attack the over-reliance on playing careful, on playing not to make a mistake ... that has to be coaching. They weren't doing that under Ronny, Dome, or Patrick. Talles and Santi weren't playing like this under Ronny. On some level, part of the underperformance has to be on Nick. Which is why I think he's a goner.

 

[KevinJRogers]

The lack of killer instinct in the final third, the propensity to pass backwards and not attack the over-reliance on playing careful, on playing not to make a mistake ... that has to be coaching.

Very reasonable view. And to be honest, were Cushing (and possibly Lee) to get canned I wouldn't think it particularly unfair. It's been a bad, bad season. Heads rolling down the street would not be an unexpected sight.

 

[canchon]

One thing about Lee - I understand that he prefers to shop in the summer window and that didn’t make moves in the winter window because he couldn’t get some of these players.

What is more perplexing is why basically he doesn’t feel he can play most of them because of some reason. Other teams make summer additions and they play - Boupendza is banging in goals in Cincy, ATL got two wingers who are elevating their play, Diego Rossi doesn’t seem to have a problem playing for CLB and on and on. This to me feels like bad planning and confirms that the season is punted.

 

[FootyLovin]

• We lost Callens because he wanted Europe.
• We lost Sean because he was looking for a big payday.
• We lost Thiago A. because he wanted minutes to develop.
• We lost Tinnerholm because he was going to make more $$$ going home.
• Seattle offered serious Garberbucks for Heber, who was underperforming and on a large salary. We couldn't say no.
• We lost Maxi to a retirement move, got him back late, and then lost him again.
• Qatar offered ridiculous real bucks to Gabby and to us, and neither could say no.
• The Club thought (reasonably) the Talles Magno experience could work at striker - it did not.
• The Club wanted a second striker and swung and missed.

• Santi insisted on a DP contract to return.

 

[gbservis]

Yeah I think we just had some bad luck this season with the salary cap forcing our hand in outgoing transfers, players deciding to move on, plus bad luck on the field.

We've been awarded one penalty kick all season. One of 7 teams in MLS to be awarded one or fewer. There have been 103 penalties awarded in MLS this season -- we've received one of them. Last year we received 9 PKs, T-5th most in MLS.

According to American Soccer Analysis, we have an xGoal of 31.97, so we're underperforming that by nearly five goals. Our xGoalsAllowed is 30.10, so we're underperforming our goals allowed by nearly 5. That means we're unperforming by a net of almost 10 goals.

We could -- and should -- be playing better. Our work in the final third speaks for itself. But if we play this season again, odds are we are a lot better. Odds are we get more PKs, score more goals, and even concede fewer goals. It's been a year where everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. Typified no more than by Maxi rupturing his ACL after four games back.

I do think this thing went sideways in early summer when players started to lose confidence because of the losing streak. We were doing fine early in the season, but we went on that losing road trip and never recovered.

I'm not willing to give Lee a pass on players leaving by calling it "bad luck". Lee's job is to anticipate and plan for these things. The club should be communicating with the players and their agents and building plans based on different possible scenarios. The Callens, Thiago, Maxi, Johnson, and Santi situations should not have been a total surprise. The team should have enough information on players on the roster to have plans in place and given the abysmally slow pace it took to fill the holes they clearly were not prepared.

Cushing is the easiest to blame because he's on the sidelines every game and his lineup decisions have been highly questionable but if Cushing goes Lee should go too. Our roster was a mess of holes for the majority of the season and even after the transfer window opened it took weeks for Lee to get players here while the rest of the teams in the league with needs had players ready to go day 1. Having a plan based on different players leaving is Lee's job, he completely failed and it's not "bad luck" It was a terrible job of strategic planning by Lee.

 

[BC19]

There’s a good spine on this team forming with Freese in goal and the pair of Martins and Risa with Sands in front of them.

 

[DeGrozz]

Not only are we above the playoff line, but we got Neymar back on the menu!

(I know Neymar's not coming here)

 

[gbservis]

What positions within our starting lineup do we think will be upgraded this summer? Or are they just going to hope a full training camp and some players reversing their regressions from this year will create better results?

 

[ZYanksRule]

What positions within our starting lineup do we think will be upgraded this summer? Or are they just going to hope a full training camp and some players reversing their regressions from this year will create better results?

Fullbacks, striker, wingers, and a No. 10 are where the upgrades are needed.

I think they upgrade striker and wingers, and get a new fullback to replace Cufre, who's pretty clearly not returning.

 

[gbservis]

Fullbacks, striker, wingers, and a No. 10 are where the upgrades are needed.

I think they upgrade striker and wingers, and get a new fullback to replace Cufre, who's pretty clearly not returning.

Fullback makes sense I had forgotten Cufre is here on loan. I'm not so sure about strikers and wingers. They reportedly spent $2M on Bakrar and $5M Fernandez. I don't see how in a salary-capped league they can spend that amount on bench players and still have money left to go out and get better strikers and wingers. Unless they sell Magno it seems like the roster money for attackers has already been spent on a planned attack of Magno-Bakrar-Fernandez for 2024.

 

[ZYanksRule]

Fullback makes sense I had forgotten Cufre is here on loan. I'm not so sure about strikers and wingers. They reportedly spent $2M on Bakrar and $5M Fernandez. I don't see how in a salary-capped league they can spend that amount on bench players and still have money left to go out and get better strikers and wingers. Unless they sell Magno it seems like the roster money for attackers has already been spent on a planned attack of Magno-Bakrar-Fernandez for 2024.

I think Bakrar is a backup striker and they will find another striker for that position. Yes Magno and Fernandez are likely to be the starters next year, but I think they bring in a TAM striker. I also wonder if they buy down Thiago's DP charge to give them a chance at a DP striker.

 

[gbservis]

I think Bakrar is a backup striker and they will find another striker for that position. Yes Magno and Fernandez are likely to be the starters next year, but I think they bring in a TAM striker. I also wonder if they buy down Thiago's DP charge to give them a chance at a DP striker.

A DP striker would be incredible but I'm not banking on a buydown. The team has never bought down a DP despite numerous opportunities in the past where it appeared easily possible and beneficial.

Regarding using TAM, it's impossible to track all the different MLS money buckets so we don't know how much TAM we have from transactions but in 2023 the annual TAM allotment to all teams was $2.7M. Given the $2M reported fee we paid for Bakrar and his salary, he is what a TAM striker would cost.

Edit: Although I do remember you pointed out that maybe missing the playoffs would be a catalyst for change. Maybe the poor results do turn out to be enough motivation for the clubs first ever DP buy down.