ZYanksRule
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Cushing had a far better roster than Pascal has.
2025 Roster and Transfer Discussion Thread
- Thread starter LionNYC
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Cushing had a far better roster than Pascal has.
ZYanksRule
Registered
This is the whole ballgame for me. Claiming they want to win trophies while giving us this roster is delusional. One of these years, the people who run NYCFC will understand that NYC sports fans are more sophisticated than they think we are.
ZYanksRule
Registered
I agree. I think once we actually get the stadium done there is no reason we can't be a tentpole team in this league. Anything less would be a massive disappointment.
Is this the lowest the fan base has ever been? Sure feels like it.
Matt Freese and Alonso Martinez raising questioning eyebrows at you.
Your point is well taken. But it is nice to recognize that we do still have quality in a couple of positions. I'd also say Haak has grown fully into a like for like replacement of Sands's talent.
I don't get the perennial fascination with NYCFC salary spend, including the expectation it will increase in 2 years, as will team fortunes.
First, though there is some correlation between spend and results in MLS, it is weak. In 2024:
The top 10 teams on that chart had the following SS table finishes: 1, 22, 3, 4, 25, 5, 8, 26, 16, 18. It's better than random, but not by a whole lot.
Amazingly, the delta both between 1 and 2, and 2 and 3, are each individually almost as big as the difference between 3 and 29. Miami is doing very well for its very outsized spend. Toronto is not.
In 2021-22 NYCFC was 12th in spending and won the league:
This winter, Atlanta spent like it had a stolen credit card and is sitting behind us. All time, Atlanta has 6 of the top 10 most expensive player signings in MLS history. Atlanta could well finish ahead of NYC by year end but Atlanta's history is not an argument for NYC to double or triple its budget.
Second, I do not expect NYCFC to upend its standard roster building model. NYC has been nowhere near the league top in salary spend since the first 3 DPs left. Since roughly the Talles Magno acquisition, the team has been closer to (but not at) the top in transfer fees paid. It has gotten poor value for that acquisition spend. CFG seems to have figured out that spending big on player salaries is an iffy road to results, but suffers the delusion it can pay big for teenagers, carry incomplete rosters for 60-70% of a season, yet still win games and make a profit on selling fees. I don't expect it to abandon that delusion soon.
I can see some likelihood that NYCFC signs 1 or 2 names to market off the World Cup and a new stadium. But I would expect that to be a one off, and a reversion to their model when those players are gone, if it happens at all.
The one thing CFG and Lee should absolutely change is the post 2022 slow pace in replacing players. They waited until the third possible transfer cycle to replace Taty and ended up with Bakrar. Sands and Rodriguez left in the 2024-25 offseason and we're waiting until at least the summer to fill their spots. Signing the wrong guy quickly is bad but signing the wrong guy after waiting is worse.
First, though there is some correlation between spend and results in MLS, it is weak. In 2024:
The top 10 teams on that chart had the following SS table finishes: 1, 22, 3, 4, 25, 5, 8, 26, 16, 18. It's better than random, but not by a whole lot.
Amazingly, the delta both between 1 and 2, and 2 and 3, are each individually almost as big as the difference between 3 and 29. Miami is doing very well for its very outsized spend. Toronto is not.
In 2021-22 NYCFC was 12th in spending and won the league:
This winter, Atlanta spent like it had a stolen credit card and is sitting behind us. All time, Atlanta has 6 of the top 10 most expensive player signings in MLS history. Atlanta could well finish ahead of NYC by year end but Atlanta's history is not an argument for NYC to double or triple its budget.
Second, I do not expect NYCFC to upend its standard roster building model. NYC has been nowhere near the league top in salary spend since the first 3 DPs left. Since roughly the Talles Magno acquisition, the team has been closer to (but not at) the top in transfer fees paid. It has gotten poor value for that acquisition spend. CFG seems to have figured out that spending big on player salaries is an iffy road to results, but suffers the delusion it can pay big for teenagers, carry incomplete rosters for 60-70% of a season, yet still win games and make a profit on selling fees. I don't expect it to abandon that delusion soon.
I can see some likelihood that NYCFC signs 1 or 2 names to market off the World Cup and a new stadium. But I would expect that to be a one off, and a reversion to their model when those players are gone, if it happens at all.
The one thing CFG and Lee should absolutely change is the post 2022 slow pace in replacing players. They waited until the third possible transfer cycle to replace Taty and ended up with Bakrar. Sands and Rodriguez left in the 2024-25 offseason and we're waiting until at least the summer to fill their spots. Signing the wrong guy quickly is bad but signing the wrong guy after waiting is worse.
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Great points. I think the pipe dream is that the new stadium marketing encourages both of these. We have a key roster hole, and we fill it quickly. And in the one off season(s) it’s with players who can make an immediate impact, not a hope and pray asset. We lost our 10 and need to score, let’s add Kevin DB, and Darwin Nunez (I know, just for an example) or Adama Traore. Spending would undoubtedly improve results, as would the quick action of filling the dead spots. Even if we don’t go the marquee route initially, I agree that roster management is just as important as how much you spend on it. We would have fared better in the past with a move as simple as adding a competent striker. We would fare better this season with a move as simple as adding a 10 and not having to take the lazy path of relying on an older Maxi. It’s also a matter of balance, for example not always going for such a raw asset - how about youngsters with a marginally better developed resume and or even some MLS roster moves.
I don't know that we could ever get answers, but I'd love to have better insight as to what happened around 2020-2023 to cause the drop in NYCFC player acquisition success.I have plenty of possible theories but none clearly stand out:
Just stuff I think about.
- Reyna did not rely on CFG scouting and Lee does.
- Reyna relied on CFG scouting but had his own sources as well.
- Reyna could better read between the lines of CFG scouting while Lee just picks the top recommendations.
- CFG used to have a Moneyball-type advantage in international scouting at MLS player levels but the world caught up.
- CFG has failed to realize the extent to which MLS play levels has increased.
Just stuff I think about.
I think it’s all been a malaise since the end of 2022.
yea the downhill spiral of my enthusiasm started when taty and ronny left and there was no clear (good) plan to replace him. Instead we ended up ruining one of our up and coming players. great job david lee.
It’ll be interesting to see how things unfold. I view that list a bit differently. Sure, it shows that spending doesn’t guarantee success, but seeing four of the top five teams in the standings also rank among the top six in spending reinforces, to me, that a growing divide is forming in the league between high-spending and low-spending clubs. It’s going to become increasingly difficult for the lower-budget teams to break into that top tier as the more ambitious clubs begin to pull away.
The league has loosened roster rules through DP slots, increasing TAM, adding U22 initiatives, and allowing clubs to retain more GAM from player sales to a point where teams can spend to gain meaningful advantage. Altogether, it creates an opportunity for top-spending teams to break the parity model if they’re willing to invest.
Gigantic issue. If we really are operating on a develop-and-sell model which is also supposed to allow us to be competitive — and by that, I mean a Cup contender, and nothing less — every season, this is the year to prove it. This window and the summer window will tell us whether we're having our chains yanked.
We're already up to our zoop-zoops in kids, so the develop-and-sell part is covered. Show me we're here to win, David.
As much as I complain about the kids, I do think a develop-and-sell model can work. It was working with guys like Gabby, Taty, Santi, and likely Illenich, who should fetch more than the $1M we paid if he continues to develop. We’d be fine if we stuck to signing young, promising players in the $500K–$1M range, or slightly higher for players like Gabby and Santi who had proven track records.
The issue is we pivoted to a strategy that’s very young, very inexperienced, and very expensive—all at once. That model works for big European clubs because they can sign a large volume of players and absorb the misses. They also don’t rely on teenagers for short-term results.
We don’t have that luxury. If we’re not going to sign many more Jovan-types or move on quickly from the ones who don’t pan out, we shouldn’t be taking massive swings. Sims made it clear we’re running on limited resources, yet somehow $18M, most of our budget, was spent on three 18-year-olds. That only makes sense if CFG was going to backstop the risk. But clearly they’re not. And if that’s the case, those U21 signings were wildly irresponsible, and it’s baffling anyone thought that level of risk was acceptable.
