I think you start Maxi, hope you've got a lead at 60', and take him off then. The offense is so much worse when he doesn't play that I think he's just too essential to leave out of the XI.
Away - August 31 - Vancouver
- Thread starter LionNYC
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I think you start Maxi, hope you've got a lead at 60', and take him off then. The offense is so much worse when he doesn't play that I think he's just too essential to leave out of the XI.
Ring and Mata suspended. Chanot, Sweat & Taty in danger. Taty can earn a reduction by being good this match (so can Ofori if he plays).
Mata was listed officially as getting a yellow, then a red. He was on 4 yellows. Does he now have 5 yellows and the suspensions overlap? Or did we lose him for 2 matches? Or VAR changed the yellow to a red and the yellow doesn't count anymore?
Mata was listed officially as getting a yellow, then a red. He was on 4 yellows. Does he now have 5 yellows and the suspensions overlap? Or did we lose him for 2 matches? Or VAR changed the yellow to a red and the yellow doesn't count anymore?
Depends if MLS treats him like Zlatan or not. I think it will be two games. One for 5 yellows and one for the red card. May work into our favor considering after Vancouver we play another 3 in 8 game stretch (all at home). So Sweat plays these two matches, then Mata the other two.
Why is a Saturday 10pm game a great time for this?
I’m all for Haak getting more minutes, I just don’t get why a Saturday 10pm game is a better time for him to get minutes over other days/times
Because kids sleep until noon, so he will be in his normal mid afternoon stride?
What’s nuts is how much NYCFC is scoring (mostly through Taty and Héber) when the best finisher on the team (Isi) isn’t even playing.
So this sent me down a brief stats rabbithole. I took stats from the league website from the top-25 goalscorers and ultimately did some math to look at 3 different stat categories: Goals/Shot, Goals/Shot on Goal, and Shots on Goal/Shot (all non-penalty goals were looked at).
Below are the top 5 in each category:
Goals/Shot
Goals/Shot on Goal
Shots on Goal / Shot
Wanna know how Ismael Tajouri-Shradi stacks up to this? Well, one thing first, since he has been injury riddled this year, his sample size is a bit low, so I'm going to give you 2019 Isi, 2018 Isi, and Combined Isi stats.
For Goals/Shot, 2019 Isi converts 26.67% of his shots into goals. 2018 Isi converted 31.43% of his shots into goals. Combined Isi converts 30.00% of his shots into goals. All of those figures would lead the league this season.
For Goals/Shot on Goal, 2019 Isi converts 57.14% of his shots on goal into goals. 2018 Isi converted 68.75% of his shots on goal into goals. Combined Isi converts 65.22% of his shots on goal into goals. Any of those figures would lead the league this season.
For Shots on Goal/Shot, 2019 Isi puts 46.67% of his shots on frame. 2018 Isi put 45.71% of his shots on frame. Combined Isi put 46.00% of his shots on frame. Those figures would be good for 3rd (2019) or 4th (Combined or 2018) in the league this season.
He really is an incredible finisher.
As a reminder to the caveat above, I removed any goals scored from the penalty spot. So from the stats, I removed penalty goals scored from goals, I removed penalty kicks attempted from shots, and I removed penalty goals scored from shots on goal (this isn't perfect, because a penalty goal not scored could have been on frame and saved but I didn't dig that up)
Also in this noticed that Jozy Altidore is having a very good season that has been limited a decent amount due to injuries.
Weird, because I don't see ITS as a 'finisher' per se, I feel like he's the kind of player who only scores absolute rockets. I can't remember too many times when he's been sent one-on-one with the keeper, for example, which is what I think of when I'm evaluating finishing.
Our bench is going to be absolutely stacked when he gets back.
Our bench is going to be absolutely stacked when he gets back.
Thanks for researching this. As a data geek I love this stuff.
That said, out of all of this I only really care about goals/shot. That stat renders the other 2 moot. I mean, once you know someone is scoring once out of every 4 shots (or more in Isi's case), do you really care how many of the other 3 out of 4 are on frame or not?
As additional stats to tell the story I'd want to look at goals/90 and then total goals. That gives you a progression of sorts to see how lethal the scorer is when they shoot and how often you can expect that lethality and whether it is a flash in the pan or something you believe will sustain.
Now this is meant to take nothing away from Shradi who I think is amazing, but here is that same list with these stats for 2019:
| goals/shot | goals/90 | goals | |
| Shradi (2019) | 26.67 | 0.53 | 4 |
| Shradi (2018) | 31.43 | 0.61 | 12 |
| Jozy | 25.00 | 0.70 | 10 |
| Nikolic | 25.00 | 0.61 | 11 |
| Heber | 25.00 | 0.81 | 13 |
| Martinez | 18.28 | 0.92 | 22 |
| Fernandez | 18.18 | 0.80 | 10 |
This gives me a better picture of who he is. Shradi is an incredibly lethal shooter over a decent stretch of time. He is also someone who picks his spots. So despite his accuracy he is less of a scorer than the others on this list. That could be because he is unselfish and/or that he is played differently in formation (which he clearly is, the others on the list all being forwards).
he also hasn't played for like half a season, which means if course his stats will be lower...
and even when he's healthy, he's not a play every game all game like martinez, jozy or fernandez.
i bet minutes played with play a big part in the picture too. heber is right up there but i'm sure gets a lot less minutes than the other 3 i just named.
Looks like Vancouver won't be back home until later today, maybe tomorrow? They'll probably get a "free" charter (as it won't count towards the 4 that MLS teams get). I'm flying out tonight.
But on that list he is also lowest on G/90. Apparently he is a monster on G/shot, but he doesn't take many shots per 90. Adding more minutes won't alter that, unless he also changes his behavior.
FootyLovin called it out already but he's also a winger or sometimes even attacking midfielder (I liked how he looked as one of the lateral midfielders in a 4-4-2 diamond against Cinci at YS).While Isi's stats are interesting from a purely individual perspective, I'm perhaps more interested in what his return might mean for NYCFC. Naively, it seems like his goal / shot and goals / 90 are second to Héber and maybe Taty, but likely higher than Mitri? Which is promising.
Very useful.
And to add, PKs should be removed from the equation (not sure if you did) because while they’re not guaranteed, they are converted at sufficiently high enough levels to skew numbers quantifying shooting effectiveness.
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