Expansion Rumors Megathread

Kjbert said:
My worry with Detroit is that the team is an afterthought. That's how the Revolution became a crappy franchise.

I'm all in on Nashville and Sacramento.
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The Revs did not become a crappy franchise because they were an afterthought, they became an afterthought because they were a crappy franchise.

Edit: If you were referring to them being an afterthought in the fans mind, then what I said above is correct. If you were talking about in the Krafts mind, then yes, I agree with you, but don't share that fear in Detroit.
 
413Blue said:
The Revs did not become a crappy franchise because they were an afterthought, they became an afterthought because they were a crappy franchise.

Edit: If you were referring to them being an afterthought in the fans mind, then what I said above is correct. If you were talking about in the Krafts mind, then yes, I agree with you, but don't share that fear in Detroit.
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Afterthought in the mind of the Krafts.

More Merritt Paulsons and less Kraft Families for MLS 3.0
 
Kjbert said:
Afterthought in the mind of the Krafts.

More Merritt Paulsons and less Kraft Families for MLS 3.0
Click to expand...
I think Dan Gilbert would be a committed owner and would probably do well. I don't know much of the other members of the group.
 
Would like to see it be Sacramento and Cincinnati as they have shown they can draw a crowd.

FC Cincinnati averaged 21,199 for USL matches which would have put them above RedBull and below Vancouver on average. For comparison, we had an average of about 22,643.

Sacramento averaged a sellout at their place 11,569 which is about 3,000 people short of the bottom 3 in MLS attendance but the constant sellout shows there is a passionate fanbase up in NorCal
 
KennyD said:
Would like to see it be Sacramento and Cincinnati as they have shown they can draw a crowd.

FC Cincinnati averaged 21,199 for USL matches which would have put them above RedBull and below Vancouver on average. For comparison, we had an average of about 22,643.

Sacramento averaged a sellout at their place 11,569 which is about 3,000 people short of the bottom 3 in MLS attendance but the constant sellout shows there is a passionate fanbase up in NorCal
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Important note though that Cinci had cheap tickets and lots of promos. Sacramento has been using MLS prices for a couple years.
 
413Blue said:
Important note though that Cinci had cheap tickets and lots of promos. Sacramento has been using MLS prices for a couple years.
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What are “MLS prices?” Every team, even NYCFC, has lots of promos. Teams set their tix prices based on their business model and region, and Cincy is a very affordable city to live in; so comparing their prices to LA or NYC or New England or Toronto is not a legitimate comparison.
 
Ulrich said:
What are “MLS prices?” Every team, even NYCFC, has lots of promos. Teams set their tix prices based on their business model and region, and Cincy is a very affordable city to live in; so comparing their prices to LA or NYC or New England or Toronto is not a legitimate comparison.
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Cinci sold tickets at prices in line with teams that don't play in MLS. Sac sells tickets at prices in line with teams that play in MLS.

Capacity has a lot to do with that of course.
 
Groups are giving their final presentations today. No new information will be factored into the decision between now and (likely) later this month. (Unless it is a major development, of course.) Final predictions?

I think this round is a really tough call looking at all four finalists. Using the process of elimination:
  1. OUT: The first I would eliminate is Detroit, but not because I don't think they're worthy. I think they're a top bid even in Ford Field considering their ownership and market. With the Ford family now in the ownership group, they also control a portion of revenue streams from the stadium solution, which is the ultimate key to satisfying MLS requirements and making the finances work. But to admit now would undermine the other expansion bids, which just spent a year or more intensely negotiating with their cities regarding some forms of public support for a "necessary" new construction of an SSS. Finally, the depth of the group's pockets means MLS shouldn't have trouble milking out a higher expansion fee in the future from them.
  2. OUT: Next, I think Nashville is the unlucky bid that falls inches short. Not because they've done anything wrong, but because of the quality of their competition. Everything they have, both Cincinnati and Sacramento have too: good ownership, finalized stadium plan, and quality market metrics. What they don't have is proven club fan support and existing operations. MLS is rumored to want one of these teams to start in 2019, likely in the East, and Nashville would be the furthest behind. Finally, like Detroit, I don't anticipate a higher expansion fee for the next round to scare off this group.
  3. IN: Therefore, Sacramento should finally get in. The bid that checks every box. The biggest risk this bid faces is MLS deciding that geographic balance is a tie-breaking factor. They may want two teams for the East as soon as possible, as Miami continues to sit idle and Columbus is almost surely leaving for Austin and the Western Conference.
  4. IN: Finally, Cincinnati. With their stadium situation squared away at the last minute, this bid checks every box as well. I think their potential readiness for a move up in 2019 is also a factor, plus a desire to stay saturated in the Eastern Conference, Midwest, and Ohio. The biggest risk this bid faces is MLS deciding to wait for clarity on the Columbus situation, but I think internally, they probably already have clarity and the Crew's relocation is a foregone conclusion.
Nashville's biggest threats to getting in next round would be Raleigh and potentially revived bids in St. Louis or Charlotte. However, I think these are pretty low risk threats, at least for now.

I don't think Detroit will be easy to threaten. Even with Ford Field, no other bid can touch the quality of ownership (at least from an outsiders perspective) that Detroit has, nor the size of it's market in an unsaturated area of the country for MLS. Phoenix and Tampa might have a chance, but their ownership groups are sorely lacking.

San Diego is the last wildcard for next round. I go back-and-forth on whether they're a shoe-in with a stadium, and whether they would be an afterthought. The lack of enthusiasm we saw from the MLS front office for them seems to tell me they aren't a major threat, but we shall see what happens with their public referendum next year.
 
Sacramento had fans outside of the league office this morning. Not sure if they're still there...
 
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