Expansion Rumors Megathread

[SoupInNYC]

Here is the article on the league page:

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/11/29/four-finalist-cities-named-next-two-mls-expansion-teams

Other tidbits from this article:

• Presentations will be made to the Expansion Committee on 12/6
• Meeting will be held on 12/14 to discuss expansion with ownership representatives from every MLS club
• They mention discussions still happening with Miami as part of the expansion to 28
• The article notes that while these will result in 2 new clubs, all remaining markets are under consideration for the 2 remaining clubs, they include:
  • Charlotte, Indianapolis, Phoenix, Raleigh/Durham, St. Louis, San Antonio, San Diego, Tampa/St. Pete

In my mind, this makes it seem like Miami is a pretty sure thing. Additionally, St. Louis isn't quite as dead as originally thought.

 

[Fantazma]

Other tidbits from this article:

• Presentations will be made to the Expansion Committee on 12/6
• Meeting will be held on 12/14 to discuss expansion with ownership representatives from every MLS club
• They mention discussions still happening with Miami as part of the expansion to 28
• The article notes that while these will result in 2 new clubs, all remaining markets are under consideration for the 2 remaining clubs, they include:
  • Charlotte, Indianapolis, Phoenix, Raleigh/Durham, St. Louis, San Antonio, San Diego, Tampa/St. Pete

In my mind, this makes it seem like Miami is a pretty sure thing. Additionally, St. Louis isn't quite as dead as originally thought.

so what happens to the losers from the first four? do they go into the pot with these remaining markets? or they are done?

 

[SoupInNYC]

so what happens to the losers from the first four? do they go into the pot with these remaining markets? or they are done?

The way I read it is they go back into the pot with the remaining markets. So take those that I bulleted above, and add the two losers out of this 4.

 

[Kjbert]

Why not just promote Cincy immediately to get to 24 teams?

I bet they go Sacramento and Nashville this time around

 

[adam]

Other tidbits from this article:

• Presentations will be made to the Expansion Committee on 12/6
• Meeting will be held on 12/14 to discuss expansion with ownership representatives from every MLS club
• They mention discussions still happening with Miami as part of the expansion to 28
• The article notes that while these will result in 2 new clubs, all remaining markets are under consideration for the 2 remaining clubs, they include:
  • Charlotte, Indianapolis, Phoenix, Raleigh/Durham, St. Louis, San Antonio, San Diego, Tampa/St. Pete

In my mind, this makes it seem like Miami is a pretty sure thing. Additionally, St. Louis isn't quite as dead as originally thought.

San Antonio is still in the running?

 

[SoupInNYC]

San Antonio is still in the running?

Well....for now. Austin Crew isn't official yet, so I would guess they don't kill San Antonio until that happens. Or Crew does move to Austin and San Antonio just "happens" to get eliminated the next round for "other reasons".

 

[ferrarinycfc]

If Detroit make it in , then you know MLS only cares about owners.


Nashville and Sacramento should get the next two spots. Cincinatti gets in once they sort out the mess in Columbus.

 

[NYCFC_JD]

If Detroit make it in , then you know MLS only cares about owners.


Nashville and Sacramento should get the next two spots. Cincinatti gets in once they sort out the mess in Columbus.

I do think that the acceptance/rejection of the Detroit bid will be a strong indicator of which owners / viewpoint dominate the league... If Detroit is accepted, I'm going to be very, very depressed, because it'll mean that the "NFL guys" run the show, and are perfectly fine with our soccer being played in football stadiums for the foreseeable future (e.g., MLS just being a revenue stream for an NFL stadium).

 

[SoupInNYC]

I do think that the acceptance/rejection of the Detroit bid will be a strong indicator of which owners / viewpoint dominate the league... If Detroit is accepted, I'm going to be very, very depressed, because it'll mean that the "NFL guys" run the show, and are perfectly fine with our soccer being played in football stadiums for the foreseeable future (e.g., MLS just being a revenue stream for an NFL stadium).

Except that the ownership for the Detroit franchise includes 0 NFL owners.

Nashville and Sacramento on the other hand both have NFL ownership

 

[sbrylski]

Except that the ownership for the Detroit franchise includes 0 NFL owners.

Nashville and Sacramento on the other hand both have NFL ownership

The Ford Family is now a major investor in the Detroit bid.

Both Nashville and Sacramento are firmly committed to a SSS, so it has zero connection to what JD is talking about - teams like New England who treat a soccer team as a tenant in their existing stadium.

With the success of Seattle and Atlanta, it's shows you can't really stereotype ownership groups. Stan Kronke in Colorado built an SSS and doesn't do shit with the team. So it's not like an SSS = committed owners either.

Truth is we don't really know the quality of the ownership groups. Stadium spending is only a minor indicator.

That said, I think Detroit will be skipped this December as to not undermine other expansion efforts that do rely on building an SSS with public support.

 

[SoupInNYC]

The Ford Family is now a major investor in the Detroit bid.

Both Nashville and Sacramento are firmly committed to a SSS, so it has zero connection to what JD is talking about - teams like New England who treat a soccer team as a tenant in their existing stadium.

With the success of Seattle and Atlanta, it's shows you can't really stereotype ownership groups. Stan Kronke in Colorado built an SSS and doesn't do shit with the team. So it's not like an SSS = committed owners either.

Truth is we don't really know the quality of the ownership groups. Stadium spending is only a minor indicator.

That said, I think Detroit will be skipped this December as to not undermine other expansion efforts that do rely on building an SSS with public support.

Ahhh, I didn't see the Ford family listed on the mls site.

And I agree regarding your second point. I was mainly inferring that the narrative of MLS being a revenue stream for NFL owners doesn't really exist.

 

[Kjbert]

The Detroit MLS bid has been revealed to be a real estate deal gone south. The developers wanted the land for a number of purposes, and included the MLS bid as part of their pitch. As soon as that deal wasn't available to them anymore, they partnered with the Ford Family to be tenants of Ford Field. I think their bid is DOA.

That should trouble MLS because if the Detroit bid was BS anyway, and they are one of the Top 4 bids available to you, there is no competition for Sacramento and Nashville and Cincy out there. There just aren't any other serious offers at this point in time. The MLS expansion well has dried up. Owners are trying to squeeze every last penny out of this thing as it's the only way they make money right now.

Will be interesting to see how Garber changes Cap rules and GAM rules in the years ahead once this last slate of expansion is over.

 

[mgarbowski]

Ahhh, I didn't see the Ford family listed on the mls site.

And I agree regarding your second point. I was mainly inferring that the narrative of MLS being a revenue stream for NFL owners doesn't really exist.

If the Detroit group gets a bid with the current parameters, then Ziggy Wylf will be wondering what he did wrong, because he basically tried to get the MLS Minnesota franchise to share tenancy in US Bank Stadium with his Vikings and MLS turned him down in favor of the Loons. There's no legal or even ethical issue here: MLS has a right to be inconsistent or change its mind about priorities, but I'm sure it will irk him to see the Lions owners allowed to have what he was refused.

 

[413Blue]

I think MLS puts great value in the enthusiasm and presentation of bids. I think there is a reason they approved Arthur Blank and went over the Wilf bid in MN at the same time. They both offered basically the same thing, a new billion dollar plus stadium with a downsizing plan for soccer. Granted, Atlanta didn't have a competing local bid, but I think Arthur Blank, who in every public appearance I've seen pertaining to soccer, which is 100x more than the Kraft family has made in 20+ years, has been very impressive, and the league puts great value in that.
So my point is, the strength of the owners is not as critical as how they present their commitment and ability to succeed.

 

[mgarbowski]

That should trouble MLS because if the Detroit bid was BS anyway, and they are one of the Top 4 bids available to you, there is no competition for Sacramento and Nashville and Cincy out there. There just aren't any other serious offers at this point in time. The MLS expansion well has dried up. Owners are trying to squeeze every last penny out of this thing as it's the only way they make money right now.

I think the Columbus situation will hurt expansion as well. Any municipality thinking of subsidizing a stadium has to look at that development and think 2x about doing so. And any potential ownership group in a small to midsize market has o wonder how they will make money if it couldn't be done in a founding city with a passionate fanbase.

 

[mgarbowski]

I think MLS puts great value in the enthusiasm and presentation of bids. I think there is a reason they approved Arthur Blank and went over the Wilf bid in MN at the same time. They both offered basically the same thing, a new billion dollar plus stadium with a downsizing plan for soccer. Granted, Atlanta didn't have a competing local bid, but I think Arthur Blank, who in every public appearance I've seen pertaining to soccer, which is 100x more than the Kraft family has made in 20+ years, has been very impressive, and the league puts great value in that.
So my point is, the strength of the owners is not as critical as how they present their commitment and ability to succeed.

It's clear that Blank is a special case.

 

[sbrylski]

The Detroit MLS bid has been revealed to be a real estate deal gone south. The developers wanted the land for a number of purposes, and included the MLS bid as part of their pitch. As soon as that deal wasn't available to them anymore, they partnered with the Ford Family to be tenants of Ford Field. I think their bid is DOA.

That should trouble MLS because if the Detroit bid was BS anyway, and they are one of the Top 4 bids available to you, there is no competition for Sacramento and Nashville and Cincy out there. There just aren't any other serious offers at this point in time. The MLS expansion well has dried up. Owners are trying to squeeze every last penny out of this thing as it's the only way they make money right now.

Will be interesting to see how Garber changes Cap rules and GAM rules in the years ahead once this last slate of expansion is over.

Detroit is far from dead. The #1 expansion criteria by far is ownership group - the depth of their pockets, their industry knowledge and connections, and their commitment. Us outsiders can't really speak to #3, but on #1 and #2, the Detroit group is literally the top bid. An NFL owner and two NBA owners, two of which are local, with the deepest pockets of all bids.

Not to mention the market size. But even with the market size factor, there's a reason Detroit is a finalist and Phoenix is not - Detroit's ownership group is just that good at a glance.

 

[mgarbowski]

https://twitter.com/x/status/936446934277029889

Also, Mike is a very interesting and worthwhile Twitter Follow, for soccer, tech-related privacy concerns, and occasional offbeat political musings that are quite rare on Twitter in that they are not subject to simple categorization, and are offered without bile, smugness or rancor.

 

[NYCFC_JD]

The Detroit MLS bid has been revealed to be a real estate deal gone south. The developers wanted the land for a number of purposes, and included the MLS bid as part of their pitch. As soon as that deal wasn't available to them anymore, they partnered with the Ford Family to be tenants of Ford Field. I think their bid is DOA.

That should trouble MLS because if the Detroit bid was BS anyway, and they are one of the Top 4 bids available to you, there is no competition for Sacramento and Nashville and Cincy out there. There just aren't any other serious offers at this point in time. The MLS expansion well has dried up. Owners are trying to squeeze every last penny out of this thing as it's the only way they make money right now.

Will be interesting to see how Garber changes Cap rules and GAM rules in the years ahead once this last slate of expansion is over.

This is a good point. But I don't think I'm as worried as it sounds like you may be (I might be misinterpreting)... What's the rush? We know who the top 3-4 expansion bids are right now (Cinci, Nashville, Sacramento... Miami...). Then, after that, there's a drop off. But that's okay! What's the rush? Adding those 4 teams is probably going to take 4 years. By that point, new developments will unfold in other markets, and there'll be more interest. Every round of expansion brings better and bigger and louder success for the expansion teams and the league, garnering more interest of fans and potential owners. It's all good.

 

[Kjbert]

This is a good point. But I don't think I'm as worried as it sounds like you may be (I might be misinterpreting)... What's the rush? We know who the top 3-4 expansion bids are right now (Cinci, Nashville, Sacramento... Miami...). Then, after that, there's a drop off. But that's okay! What's the rush? Adding those 4 teams is probably going to take 4 years. By that point, new developments will unfold in other markets, and there'll be more interest. Every round of expansion brings better and bigger and louder success for the expansion teams and the league, garnering more interest of fans and potential owners. It's all good.

My worry with Detroit is that the team is an afterthought. That's how the Revolution became a crappy franchise.

I'm all in on Nashville and Sacramento.