Haven't posted any detailed but wild speculation lately. Let's do it. Spent some time thinking about the most plausible Liga MX / MLS merger scenario post-2026, here's what I came up with. Overall, I think they would follow a keep-it-simple model, keeping both leagues still at arms length to protect rivalries and reduce travel. Therefore, I think it would look a lot like the AL / NL merger in baseball, with two leagues not overly concerned with symmetry in their structures, as long as the seasons like up to allow some meaningful interleague play (the entire point of a potential merger). I think they'll also force a Liga MX / MLS cup final each year, but I'll get to that in a bit.
1. First, we have eight years to finish up MLS expansion. It's more difficult for a bid to actually reach the finish line that it seems, as we've seen, but I definitely think they'll be able to push beyond 28 teams in the near future. But as more large markets are taken, the expansion fee rises and smaller markets get priced out, leading to an equilibrium around 30-32 teams (e.g. every other US sports league.) Let's say we get to 32 by the World Cup:
St. Louis, Phoenix, Detroit, Charlotte and San Diego. It feels like Charlotte is gearing up to produce a massive bid in the next round, and I think the league finds a way to get the San Diego group in eventually even if the Soccer City vote fails, due to Juan Carlos Rodriguez's involvement. Las Vegas and Sacramento are also options for #32 if they have the right investment groups.
2. Next, the merger. Let's call it Liga NA. We have 32 teams from MLS in two conferences and 18 from Liga MX. To open up interleague play opportunities in a 34-game schedule, we need to introduce divisions:
Liga NA East
Atlantic (8): Toronto, Montreal, New England, New York City, NY Red Bulls, Philadelphia, DC United, Detroit
Central (8): Chicago, Columbus, Cincinnati, Nashville, Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, Miami
Liga NA West
Frontier (8): Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Minnesota, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, Austin, Houston
Pacific (8): Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, San Jose, Los Angeles, LA Galaxy, San Diego, Phoenix
I hate that the Midwest is so fractured (Minnesota/St. Louis, Chicago/Columbus, and Detroit all in different divisions), but tough to split it up another way. There's a natural North/South split in the middle of the country and only Detroit would have to be moved East, but I feel they'll want to keep two East/West conferences rather than stretch things across time zones and group cold weather teams together.
Liga NA South
North (9): Tijuana, Santos Laguna, UANL, Monterrey, Guadalajara, Atlas, Necaxa, Leon, Queretaro
South (9): Morelia, Cruz Azul, Club America, UNAM, Toluca, Puebla, BUAP, Veracruz
I don't know that much about Liga MX, but the above seems like a reasonably natural division. Not entirely sure these are the 18 teams that would make the cut either though.
3. Third, scheduling. Each division in the Eastern and Western conferences plays their own division twice (14), the other division in their conference once (8), and 12 interconference games. In the Southern Conference, it is the same (16+9) but with 9 interconference games. For the Southern Conference, all 9 of those interleague games are against Eastern and Western conference teams in the US and Canada. For Eastern/Western conference teams, they play about 5 games each year against Southern Conference teams, and 7 games against the other former-MLS conference. The numbers clearly don't line up perfectly, but on a managed rotation, each team would play every other team in Liga NA at least once per four years. In total, this schedule produces 162 games between former MLS and former Liga MX teams, a massive media boom despite modest amount of crossover scheduling.
4. Lastly, postseason. I'm tempted to project a mixed conference postseason, maybe even group stages, but most likely two factors will come into play: length and competitiveness. It is best for both leagues to force a Mexican-American/Canadian final, and due to the already difficult calendar adjustments required to merge the leagues, there's probably not much time to squeeze in a postseason tournament.
As stated in the into, I don't think they'll concern themselves with symmetry too much. They'll have a Southern Conference bracket, probably of 8 teams (four from each division or a wildcard system) in a single-elimination knockout spanning three weeks. Above the border, they'll probably need four weeks to run a single-elimination knockout of 16 teams (or 12 if you give the division winners byes) that would see the Western Conference winner face the Eastern Conference winner in the overall semifinals. The winner advances to face the Southern Conference winner for the Campeones Cup (or a new trophy), preferably at a neutral site (Jerry World?).
Reactions?
EDIT: Honestly imagine going from nationally televised games of the week between Atlanta United and Chicago Fire, or LA Galaxy and Minnesota United, to nationally televised, meaningful regular season games between LAFC and Chivas or NYCFC and Club America. Or San Diego v Tiujana annual border rivalry. I'm excited about the potential.
