MLS Cup Playoffs - October 23 - Montreal (Away)
- Thread starter LionNYC
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You also have to wonder where the xG would have ended up had we not gotten the first early goal and started playing more conservatively.
Or how the game changes if that first Kai header bounces in off the post instead of out. This match really did roll out perfectly for us. Definitely feel like we're playing with a little bit of house money at this point.
I was actually surprised that was only a .4ish xG for Maxi’s shot. He had the ball at his feet with the goalie out of position and was only like 10-15 feet dead center in front of goal. 95+% of the time, that’s a goal
Cue
mgarbowski to explain how soccer fans believe players should score way more than the actual percentages say is reasonable.
Honestly I had thought it about it and it was a fair question why only 40%. Maxi was dead center in front of goal with the keeper off to the side. AsCue
SoupInNYC noted there were multiple (I think 3) other defenders between Maxi and goal. And I'm certain that's the answer.But I think it was fair to ask why only 40%. OTOH, estimating the likelihood at 95% is pretty off. To be clear, I think that was a rhetorical 95%, not
DeGrozz's actual considered estimation. But since it was thrown out there, I will note that if shots from 10 or yards with 3 defenders between the shooter and goal are 95% you have almost nowhere to go for shots from less than 5 yards with 2, 1, or 0 players between the shooter and goal.For the record, this is an actual 96% shot that missed. Talles rounded the keeper. The closest defender was 8-10 yards away and stopped running. Talles shot from 1 yard away with nobody between him and the goal, and missed.
To be fair Magno was at the edge of goal and was half-losing control of the ball. But I'm confident that is still the worst miss in NYCFC history. And fans should always remember that shooting from 1 yard away with nobody between you and goal is only a 96% shot and sometimes players miss, basically 1 out of every 25 times.
Thinking about why Maxi's shot with no keeper in goal was still only 40% is a good thing to remember. Normal chances where the shooter is inside the box but still had to beat the keeper and there were 2-3 defenders also in the box mostly don't go in. Those shots are actually pretty low percentage, and way below 50-50.
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Worst miss in my opinion is still Rodney Wallace, in the Derby (at YS), when we were down 1 or 2 men and missing from maybe 2 yards out, over the net. Might have been slightly less from an xG perspective... but it was BAD. Ended up tying the game, but should've been 3 points though.Honestly I had thought it about it and it was a fair question why only 40%. Maxi was dead center in front of goal with the keeper off to the side. As
But I think it was fair to ask why only 40%. OTOH, estimating the likelihood at 95% is pretty off. To be clear, I think that was a rhetorical 95%, not
For the record, this is an actual 96% shot that missed. Talles rounded the keeper. The closest defender was 8-10 yards away and stopped running. Talles shot from 1 yard away with nobody between him and the goal, and missed.
To be fair Magno was at the edge of goal and was half-losing control of the ball. But I'm confident that is still the worst miss in NYCFC history. And fans should always remember that shooting from 1 yard away with nobody between you and goal is only a 96% shot and sometimes players miss, basically 1 out of every 25 times.
Thinking about why Maxi's shot with no keeper in goal was still only 40% is a good thing to remember. Normal chances where the shooter is inside the box but still had to beat the keeper and there were 2-3 defenders also in the box mostly don't go in. Those shots are actually pretty low percentage, and way below 50-50.
I don't remember that somehow. Must have been too Amagutted. The highlights leave it out. xG says 66% but I take your point.
Honestly I had thought it about it and it was a fair question why only 40%. Maxi was dead center in front of goal with the keeper off to the side. As
But I think it was fair to ask why only 40%. OTOH, estimating the likelihood at 95% is pretty off. To be clear, I think that was a rhetorical 95%, not
For the record, this is an actual 96% shot that missed. Talles rounded the keeper. The closest defender was 8-10 yards away and stopped running. Talles shot from 1 yard away with nobody between him and the goal, and missed.
To be fair Magno was at the edge of goal and was half-losing control of the ball. But I'm confident that is still the worst miss in NYCFC history. And fans should always remember that shooting from 1 yard away with nobody between you and goal is only a 96% shot and sometimes players miss, basically 1 out of every 25 times.
Thinking about why Maxi's shot with no keeper in goal was still only 40% is a good thing to remember. Normal chances where the shooter is inside the box but still had to beat the keeper and there were 2-3 defenders also in the box mostly don't go in. Those shots are actually pretty low percentage, and way below 50-50.
Great opportunity to slip in this beauty
(xG .63 apparently btw)
.63 greatly overestimates the difficulty of that shot. The ball was spinning wildly, and he had to try and volley it. Finally, the goalkeeper was very close, and it's not sure it's finished even if he puts it on frame.
Oh definitely, I agree looking back now on the shot it was WAY harder than it looks... but still, i just wanted to bring everyone that feeling they felt back to them
That was our last World Cup game. Interesting to look back.
Who remembers that our last WC goal was scored by a German currently playing in the 2.Bundesliga.
Who remembers that our last WC goal was scored by a German currently playing in the 2.Bundesliga.
Also, not trying to be a Wondo apologist here, but damn he did so much work for that opportunity to even happen.Oh definitely, I agree looking back now on the shot it was WAY harder than it looks... but still, i just wanted to bring everyone that feeling they felt back to them
The below post is Advanced Metrics (c) approved.
To clarify - one thing xG shows is that getting into position to take a shot is the principal driver of scoring goals. Wondo was great at that.
To clarify - one thing xG shows is that getting into position to take a shot is the principal driver of scoring goals. Wondo was great at that.
One thing to add. I think the heavy touch by Dempsey on the set piece that could have tied the match deep into stoppage time was as bad a mistake as Wondo's miss. This was clearly a training ground special, and it was worked to perfection until the ball got to Dempsey. He let the ball roll too far away from him, and that let the keeper close him down.
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I think you meant either underestimates the difficulty or overestimates the likelihood it would go in.
That said, I think you properly noted the limitation of xG - depending on which model, it accounts for things like the location of the shot, the play state (eg settled defense or transition), the presence of defenders and keeper, volley or not, kick or header (or Lampard butt shot). But once those are accounted for, things like reaction time, whether the keeper is still or closing or distracted, whether you are shooting a perfect service or a pass skipping along the field at high speed, or whether the shooter has time to set himself are part of the mix and for any value of X, some XX% shots are easier to make than others.
Which is OK. Every stat, whether traditional or advanced, has limitations.
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Honestly I had thought it about it and it was a fair question why only 40%. Maxi was dead center in front of goal with the keeper off to the side. As
But I think it was fair to ask why only 40%. OTOH, estimating the likelihood at 95% is pretty off. To be clear, I think that was a rhetorical 95%, not
For the record, this is an actual 96% shot that missed. Talles rounded the keeper. The closest defender was 8-10 yards away and stopped running. Talles shot from 1 yard away with nobody between him and the goal, and missed.
To be fair Magno was at the edge of goal and was half-losing control of the ball. But I'm confident that is still the worst miss in NYCFC history. And fans should always remember that shooting from 1 yard away with nobody between you and goal is only a 96% shot and sometimes players miss, basically 1 out of every 25 times.
Thinking about why Maxi's shot with no keeper in goal was still only 40% is a good thing to remember. Normal chances where the shooter is inside the box but still had to beat the keeper and there were 2-3 defenders also in the box mostly don't go in. Those shots are actually pretty low percentage, and way below 50-50.
Yes - the 95% was completely rhetorical!
The reason why I thought the xG was lower than reality is that (based on my understanding on how the calculation works, which frankly could be way off) at the point of contact on the shot the xG calculation takes into consideration things like player position, goalie position, etc. So for Maxi's goal, when he received the ball, he had basically a goalie not in the mouth of the goal, a defender behind the goal line, and two defenders that needed to make an 8ish yard recovery. Other than that a ball fell almost perfectly for him in front of an open goal.
Because he had so much time when he received the ball, he knew he was able to settle the ball and calmly blast it into the back of the net before the collapsing defenders would have a shot at blocking his kick.
It's my understanding the xG calc takes into account that Maxi has 3 players close by at the point of the shot, but it's only because he knew he had time to pause and settle the ball and didn't need to rush his shot which isn't taken into account. It's a shortcoming of advanced situational metrics in soccer.
(It's almost like slowing down on a fast break in basketball where you know you'll beat a defender rushing back, but your simple layup looks much closer to getting blocked or being contested than it ever truly was.)
Full disclosure -- my understanding of how the xG calculation works could be way off, I am far far far from an expert.
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it’s not related but a week after he leaves Chanot, Magno and Maxi might have gotten injured. Nets hire NYCFC head trainer Jonathan Filipe
