I don't have a problem with #12.
Bring in a kick ass 10 and we could rise.
On the other hand don't sleep on Austin, SJ, New England and I'll even toss in Chicago who all made some big moves during the off season. Of course whether or not any of those moves work out is another story...........
ETA: Upon further review who cares what Austin and SJ do? Factor out all the Western Conference clubs and that would put us at #7. Even if Chicago and NE improve we still make the playoffs; if only by default since the other teams in the East are pure garbage.
Last year NYC finished 6. Maybe someone ahead falters but no candidates at the moment. OK Columbus is weaker but probably still better than NYCFC.
Atlanta almost certainly jumped us, so 7.
RB was 3 points back and tied on GD. We've lost more talent than they have. Reasonable to think they climb past. 8
As you note Revs and Fire made big moves, but start from a position of crap. Neither, both, or just one could jump NYC. Kind of toss up level but leaning a bit positive. Still toss up and toss up.
Union had a better GD than us last year despite 13 fewer points. I think they lost some pieces. Toss up. Nashville had an oddly sub-par season last year and should revert at least somewhat, but haven't really helped themselves. Toss up. DC has made an effort this offseason, but also are coming from a place of crap, though not as bad as Revs or Chicago. Toss up.
IMO we need to improve, with better defense plus an extra 15 or so goals combined and above what they generated last year from Ojeda, Wolf, Jones, Fernandez and Bakrar. Otherwise there's a decent chance 2-3 of the 5 tossups jump over NYC. Even if 1-2 of the 5 teams ahead in 2024 drop, it's easy to see NYC below the line if it does not see improved play from existing players and/or a big new piece sooner than we expect.
Finishing 1-3 - where 80+% of MLS champs finish - seems unthinkable.
