NYCFC Season Discussion 2025: Party Like It's 2023 (2024 If You're Lucky)

[mgarbowski]

Eight games in you can start drawing some tentative conclusions.

The Outfield mailbag included a very solid analysis of the season to date and the chance things improve. I agree with the analysis and conclusions there. This team is competitive in that it can win any game, but the odds of winning a lot or being successful in the playoffs is low. I'll just hit a handful of points to round out and maybe provoke discussion.

Do It Again
2023 after 8 games: 4 Home, 4 Away, 9 G 9 GA, 0GD, 12 Pts
2024 after 8 games: 4 Home 4 Away, 7 G 9 GA, -2 GD, 8 Pts
2025 after 8 games: 4 Home 4 Away, 11 G 11 GA, 0 GD, 11 Pts

NYCFC rarely has strong starts to a season, but this is pretty consistent slightly sub mediocrity over three years. Oddly, 2023 had the best record at this point and 2024 the worst. As a point of reference for incomplete rosters, the 2023 team never dressed 3 keepers to fill out a 20 man game roster, and always had a full 20 players. In 2025, NYCFC has needed to dress 3 keepers 4 times to complete a 20 man roster.

2025 League Ranks
Everything is mediocre to poor. In most cases, actual Stats exceed the xStats.
Where the ranking is shown as a range, that means NYCFC is tied with the teams in that range:

Points 17-18
xPts 21

Goal Differential 15-16
xGD 21

Goals For 12-15
xGF 17

Goals Against 15-19
xGA 21

The only area where NYCFC is above median is Goals Scored, even as its xG is a bit below median. I think (but cannot prove) that's because almost all of NYCFC's goals are off give-aways or in transition and I think xG models slightly undervalue those chances. NYCFC almost never scores against a settled defense absent a glaring mistake by that defense:

Away Goals

• a ridiculous giveaway by Alba - Miami
• a non-repeatable set play that exploited a terrible wall - Miami
• misplay of an NYCFC throw in - Atlanta
• PK earned when defender clumsily bulldozed Martinez on a length of field keeper kick and a concrete/turf bounce - Atlanta
• defender misplays a ball directly to Wolf inside the 18 - Atlanta

Home Goals

• a keeper out of position - Orlando
• a rebound when the keeper failed to control a 20+ yard shot - Orlando
• fast break - New England
• recycled corner - New England
• rebound when keeper fails to control 20 yard shot - Minnesota
• keeper caught far out of goal - Philadelphia

The only goal scored against a well settled defense that did not make an obvious error was the Martinez scissor kick which was the recycled corner against New England.

Randomness
Last year NYCFC set a club record with 13 games in its Secondary Kit. This year they have played in the Primary kit all 8 games to date.

From 2016-2022 NYCFC earned 1.84 PPG against the West and 1.60 against the East. From 2023 to now NYCFC has 0.64 against the West and 1.50 against the East.
Also 2016 to 2022 NYC earned 1.26 PPG Away. From 2023 to now just 0.79 Away.

If you woke up this morning wondering what is the worst 90 game stretch in NYCFC history, it is a tie between the 90 games ending with the April 6 game vs Minnesota and that ending with the April 12 game this past weekend against Philadelphia. The first game in the 90 game stretch that ends with the Philadelphia game was Taty Castellanos's final NYCFC appearance before being loaned to Girona. The PPG over those games is 1.322.

 

[canchon]

Stats indicate the same as the eye test, this is a mediocre team that really isn’t going anywhere.

For last Saturday’s game I took a look at the weather and was like “nah, I’m good.” Wouldn’t have happened years ago.

 

[joe]

In 2025, NYCFC has needed to dress 2 keepers 4 times to complete a 20 man roster.

Assume that should be 3 keepers? Great post, I'm just a compulsive proofreader sometimes.

 

[mgarbowski]

Assume that should be 3 keepers? Great post, I'm just a compulsive proofreader sometimes.

Yes, or 2 bench keepers.
Thanks, and fixed.

 

[LionNYC]

In the title did you mean "Party Like It's 2023?

 

[mgarbowski]

In the title did you mean "Party Like It's 2023?

Yes! Fixed, thanks.

 

[gbservis]

It definitely feels like we’re heading for a repeat of 2023, overperforming to start the season, only to fall apart mid-season once the schedule congestion hits and our lack of quality depth gets exposed. By the time reinforcements arrive in the summer transfer window, it’s too late to turn things around.

 

[LionNYC]

It definitely feels like we’re heading for a repeat of 2023, overperforming to start the season, only to fall apart mid-season once the schedule congestion hits and our lack of quality depth gets exposed. By the time reinforcements arrive in the summer transfer window, it’s too late to turn things around.

AND PRICES WERE INCREASED BY DOUBLE DIGIT PERCENTAGES ON OUR SEASON TICKETS!

So much for that "included" 2025 playoff game!

 

[canchon]

AND PRICES WERE INCREASED BY DOUBLE DIGIT PERCENTAGES ON OUR SEASON TICKETS!

So much for that "included" 2025 playoff game!

I so think the FO threw that into as a “benefit” knowing that this year they aren’t investing in a playoff-worthy team and thus won’t have to pay it out.

 

[mgarbowski]

Ten Game Update:

The H/A adjusted opponents' PPG through 10 games is 1.52. The good news is 7 of the next 10 games are at home and that number drops to 0.96. The bad news is the final 14 games it jumps to 1.58.

New England has a game in hand, so NYCFC is below the PPG playoff line.


For reference, in 2024 in the East you needed 40 points plus a tiebreaker to make the play-in game, 43 to be at home in that game, and 47 to avoid the play-in. In the West, those numbers were 47, 47, and 50. At the moment in 2025, the East has higher playoff markers than the West.

What various 24 game records can achieve:


Goals Need Three Players
NYCFC 2015 to Taty's Last Game in 2022:
248 Games, 1.70 Goals/Gm, Home 2.09, Away 1.31, 41 Shutouts (16.5%), 85 1G (34.3%), 66 2G (26.6%), 56 3G+ (22.6%)
Since then:
91 Games, 1.29 Goals/Gm, Home 1.65, Away 0.96, 24 Shutouts (26.4%), 32 1G (35.2%), 25 2G (27.5%), 10 3G+ (11.0%)

Interesting that the post-Taty difference is only in shutouts and 3+ goal games. The percentage change for both 1 and 2 goal games is meaningless.

More breakdown:
2022 Ronny: 13 Games, 1.92 G/Gm
2022 Nick and Taty: 8 Games 2.0 G/Gm
2022 Nick no Taty: 13 Games, 1.23 G/Gm
2023 34 Games, 1.03 G/Gm
2024 34 Games 1.59 G/Gm
2024 11 games before Martinez played regularly: 1.00 G/Gm
2024 final 23 games 1.87 G/Gm
2025: 1.2 G/Gm

NYCFC offense fell off a cliff immediately when Taty left. It only recovered when Martinez became striker. It fell again when Santi left.

It looks like at a minimum, you need 3 very good to great players: a 10, a striker and a winger.

2022 Maxi, Santi, Taty great offense.
2022 Maxi, Santi, shadow of Heber - poor offense.
2023 Santi, limited Pereira, no striker - no offense.
2024 Santi, Martinez, Moralez - near great offense.
2024 missing 1 or more of the above - poor offense.
2025 Martinez, Moralez, no solid winger - poor offense.

 

[moogoo]

Ten Game Update:

The H/A adjusted opponents' PPG through 10 games is 1.52. The good news is 7 of the next 10 games are at home and that number drops to 0.96. The bad news is the final 14 games it jumps to 1.58.

New England has a game in hand, so NYCFC is below the PPG playoff line.
View attachment 13873

For reference, in 2024 in the East you needed 40 points plus a tiebreaker to make the play-in game, 43 to be at home in that game, and 47 to avoid the play-in. In the West, those numbers were 47, 47, and 50. At the moment in 2025, the East has higher playoff markers than the West.

What various 24 game records can achieve:
View attachment 13874

Goals Need Three Players
NYCFC 2015 to Taty's Last Game in 2022:
248 Games, 1.70 Goals/Gm, Home 2.09, Away 1.31, 41 Shutouts (16.5%), 85 1G (34.3%), 66 2G (26.6%), 56 3G+ (22.6%)
Since then:
91 Games, 1.29 Goals/Gm, Home 1.65, Away 0.96, 24 Shutouts (26.4%), 32 1G (35.2%), 25 2G (27.5%), 10 3G+ (11.0%)

Interesting that the post-Taty difference is only in shutouts and 3+ goal games. The percentage change for both 1 and 2 goal games is meaningless.

More breakdown:
2022 Ronny: 13 Games, 1.92 G/Gm
2022 Nick and Taty: 8 Games 2.0 G/Gm
2022 Nick no Taty: 13 Games, 1.23 G/Gm
2023 34 Games, 1.03 G/Gm
2024 34 Games 1.59 G/Gm
2024 11 games before Martinez played regularly: 1.00 G/Gm
2024 final 23 games 1.87 G/Gm
2025: 1.2 G/Gm

NYCFC offense fell off a cliff immediately when Taty left. It only recovered when Martinez became striker. It fell again when Santi left.

It looks like at a minimum, you need 3 very good to great players: a 10, a striker and a winger.

2022 Maxi, Santi, Taty great offense.
2022 Maxi, Santi, shadow of Heber - poor offense.
2023 Santi, limited Pereira, no striker - no offense.
2024 Santi, Martinez, Moralez - near great offense.
2024 missing 1 or more of the above - poor offense.
2025 Martinez, Moralez, no solid winger - poor offense.

if we can get a lively DP #10 and jones can return to his form and continue improving, i think we'd be in good shape.

of course, those are too big IFs. I don't have any confidence either of ojeda or fernandez will develop into a dangerous winger we can rely on and chances are probably slim we'll be going out to sign a top level winger.

 

[gbservis]

if we can get a lively DP #10 and jones can return to his form and continue improving, i think we'd be in good shape.

of course, those are too big IFs. I don't have any confidence either of ojeda or fernandez will develop into a dangerous winger we can rely on and chances are probably slim we'll be going out to sign a top level winger.

Given that Jones had a second surgery and from the photos is only doing solo non-contact rehab training, I doubt get more than a few sub appearances out of him towards the end of the season at best. That means we will be rolling with Fernandez and Ojeda for the foreseeable future. Hopefully, the season ends with us moving on from Lee and a new sporting director coming in, and moving on from Lee's poor investments.

 

[moogoo]

Given that Jones had a second surgery and from the photos is only doing solo non-contact rehab training, I doubt get more than a few sub appearances out of him towards the end of the season at best. That means we will be rolling with Fernandez and Ojeda for the foreseeable future. Hopefully, the season ends with us moving on from Lee and a new sporting director coming in, and moving on from Lee's poor investments.

yea. i was thinking more about next year. with just one signing in the primary transfer window, i've pretty much written off this season. at best, we'll make the playoffs but we aren't gonna win anything. we simply don't have the team for it.

but if we can sign a solid DP #10 in the summer and jones can return next season and regain his form and then some, i think we'd be in good shape in attack.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Goals Need Three Players
NYCFC 2015 to Taty's Last Game in 2022:
248 Games, 1.70 Goals/Gm, Home 2.09, Away 1.31, 41 Shutouts (16.5%), 85 1G (34.3%), 66 2G (26.6%), 56 3G+ (22.6%)
Since then:
91 Games, 1.29 Goals/Gm, Home 1.65, Away 0.96, 24 Shutouts (26.4%), 32 1G (35.2%), 25 2G (27.5%), 10 3G+ (11.0%)

Interesting that the post-Taty difference is only in shutouts and 3+ goal games. The percentage change for both 1 and 2 goal games is meaningless.

I think this is an artifact of how you set up the math. If half the 3+ goal games become 2 goal games, and half the 2 goal games become 1 goal games, etc. - then you get the results you cite; the numbers at each end move and the numbers in the middle don't.

 

[mgarbowski]

I think this is an artifact of how you set up the math. If half the 3+ goal games become 2 goal games, and half the 2 goal games become 1 goal games, etc. - then you get the results you cite; the numbers at each end move and the numbers in the middle don't.

You're right, and I'm annoyed I didn't think of it.
Still, I do not believe it had to work out so evenly. It's roughly ~10% of all games moving from 3+ to 2, then ~10% from 2 to 1, and ~10% from 1 to 0. I see no reason it could not have been 15%, 8% and 20%, or one of many other combos. But maybe this is a common phenomenon in certain distributions.

 

[mgarbowski]

Our defense, including Freese, is probably not as good as it seems.

We allow 1.61 xGA per game, while conceding just 1.00 GA/Gm (excluding own goals because OGs have no associated xG as there was no shot taken). That's a nice -0.61 delta.

So Freese is amazing, right? Not quite so much. For keepers, you need to use post shot xGA as your measuring stick. If the other team gets off a shot from 6 yards away in front of goal but skies it over the bar, the keeper didn't really do anything, so you do not credit him based off the regular xG. Using post-shot xGA, our Ice Man has a per game G-psxGA of -0.19.

It turns out our very solid seeming defense is a beneficiary of terrible Bakrar-level shooting by our opponents. Despite the 1.61 regular xGA, Freese only faces 1.15 post-shot xGA. There are really 2 possible explanations for this disparity: either we are unusually skilled at forcing bad shots from good positions, or we're lucky to have opponents who have happened to take bad shots. I think we're probably mostly lucky, and there's little reason to expect that to remain so.

In other good luck but bad news: through 12 games we've been awarded 4 penalty kicks and our opponents have taken none, 0. Penalties are funny: they obviously bear some connection to good chances and bad defending, but there is a whole lot of randomness in there as well. NYCFC is one of just 4 teams in MLS with no PKs against so far in 2025, and the 4 PKs taken is second most. Nashville has taken 7 and every other team has taken 3 or fewer. Nashville opponents have taken 3, meaning that at +4 NYCFC is tied for the best PKatt-PKattA in MLS.

Fortunately PKs are so random and rare the law of averages probably won't catch up. But there's also no reason to expect that the team will continue to get and face so many yet so few PKs the rest of the year.

 

[EganSoccerWords]

We are still only 12 games in the season and a handful of bad or good games can really tilt the numbers due to small sample size. Goalkeepers need a lot of shots on target for those post-shot xG numbers to mean anything. Freese is at 56 right but you probably need at least double that depending on the model you are using. The good news is that Freese is currently trending upward after some rough games if you look at the 5-game rolling average:

 

[mgarbowski]

We are still only 12 games in the season and a handful of bad or good games can really tilt the numbers due to small sample size. Goalkeepers need a lot of shots on target for those post-shot xG numbers to mean anything. Freese is at 56 right but you probably need at least double that depending on the model you are using. The good news is that Freese is currently trending upward after some rough games if you look at the 5-game rolling average: View attachment 13909

To be clear, my point was not Freese is poor or even average. Rather that our defensive success to date is more smoke than solid.

Right now in 2025 Freese is just among the top quarter of goalkeepers. I won’t be surprised at all if his numbers get even better.

 

[FootyLovin]

Despite the 1.61 regular xGA, Freese only faces 1.15 post-shot xGA. There are really 2 possible explanations for this disparity: either we are unusually skilled at forcing bad shots from good positions, or we're lucky to have opponents who have happened to take bad shots.

I like your analysis though I wonder about the conclusion. I do think great keepers cause opponents to shoot off goal in two ways - reputation and positioning.

I don't know any way you could look at reputation and actually analyze that meaningfully.

And AFAIK there are no stats tracking how keeper position relates to PSxG. With all the stats they have now, it is probably just a matter of time before someone tracks it. When (if) they do, I wonder how Freese would stack up.

 

[EganSoccerWords]

I think some models like statsbomb do factor in positioning in their xG models. For PSxG, I don't think you want factor in positioning as much because that's one of the things you want to use the stat to help evaluate