Preseason - January 23 - Red Bulls

[Shwafta]

I see that, but he's only played there (also according to Transfermarkt, haven't looked at the specific matches to see if it makes sense) twice since coming to NYCFC and those were before he tore his ACL.

Without understanding the system he played LW at prior to NYCFC and understanding Ronny's system and what he asks of his wingers, I don't really see how he fits for material minutes there.

Oh, I don't see how either. I was just sticking in the data for the sake of sticking in the data. (I'm at work and can only slack off so much...)

 

[moogoo]

Do we really think Heber has the skillset to play a winger?

I mean, perhaps in a pinch I would guess, but he's operated best for us centrally, and in a way that allows him to combine with his back to goal and runners coming off him, then finding spaces in the box.

His skillset has never been taking guys on 1v1, being one of the runners playing off a central striker, taking shots from distance, or sending in crosses.

as shwafta noted, i only say that because he does have experience there but I think he could make it work as much as medina could, if not better.

while he may not be someone taking on defenders 1v1 and then breaking past them with pace or delivering a cross, I think he could play there almost as a 2nd striker or at least someone to combine with and be a threat running in behind. if both he and taty are on the field together, they can work off each other and fluidly switch positions. Taty was never a 1v1 specialist either, but before heber was injured and when he first arrived, he was a winger. I'm not saying he'd definitely be good there. I just thought it could be something to try.

 

[SoupInNYC]

as shwafta noted, i only say that because he does have experience there but I think he could make it work as much as medina could, if not better.

while he may not be someone taking on defenders 1v1 and then breaking past them with pace or delivering a cross, I think he could play there almost as a 2nd striker or at least someone to combine with and be a threat running in behind. if both he and taty are on the field together, they can work off each other and fluidly switch positions. Taty was never a 1v1 specialist either, but before heber was injured and when he first arrived, he was a winger. I'm not saying he'd definitely be good there. I just thought it could be something to try.

I'd be up for a Taty/Heber combo in a two-striker system.

I also think the current formation could work with Heber as the 9 and Taty on the wing (though IMO it would be a huge waste of what Taty's strengths are).

I don't think Heber on the wing makes sense.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Nothing dropped. The disparity in minutes played is because you used official numbers which is gold standard but I used ASA because ASA presents its data in a way that is most useful for manipulation and comparisons. But the most quirky thing about ASA is that it counts added time in players minute counts, so those totals never match official MLS figures. If you play a full game, then ASA credits you with anywhere from 93 to 99 minutes and maybe even higher. The upside is it better reflects actual minutes played, especially for late game subs. Officially if you enter a game at 89' and there were 4 added minutes, you played 1 minute. ASA credits you with 5. But it makes comparisons across different data sources more complicated.

Beyond that, I fully ignored both 2020 and 2021 in my analysis. I only based it on 2019, and for reasons I previously explained, I do not think he is likely to repeat that performance even without factoring in injury rehab risk. I'm playing percentages and likelihoods, so I could be wrong even if my analysis is correct, but I think it's quite likely that if he plays at least as much in 2022 as he did in 2019, his per 90 numbers will be lower. Plus I can't ignore how often he was hurt in 2019. Unless that changes it puts a strong cap on his potential. For me the best case for upside is the possibility that he will get fewer soft tissue knocks, which you sometimes (but not usually) see after a major rehab. Significantly more minutes could mean more goals. But I think 2019 was a career best type season and he's unlikely to score at that rate again. I hope I'm wrong.

It was the lack of 2020 data that had me thinking something was missing, but I see now that was intentional.

It's a really striking difference between the two.

 

[mgarbowski]

It was the lack of 2020 data that had me thinking something was missing, but I see now that was intentional.

Something was off in 2020. On a per minute basis, we all know that Heber's goals went way down, but his xG also went way down, and his Goals to xGoals ratio went upside down. My working theory has always been that he lacked both (complete) fitness and motivation. Not that he dogged it or didn't try, or was markedly out of shape, but 2020 lockdown affected everyone and I think it gave us a Heber who wasn't his usual self.

 

[Revfugee]

Something was off in 2020. On a per minute basis, we all know that Heber's goals went way down, but his xG also went way down, and his Goals to xGoals ratio went upside down. My working theory has always been that he lacked both (complete) fitness and motivation. Not that he dogged it or didn't try, or was markedly out of shape, but 2020 lockdown affected everyone and I think it gave us a Heber who wasn't his usual self.

Nobody remembers all the bile spewed when we signed Heber because he was a “winger and not a true striker?” I do. Same with Taty up to this year. “He’s not really a striker, he’s really a winger.” This isn’t MLB or NFL or the NBA. A player with talent can excel at different positions. Sure they have preferences and play better in certain systems, but players with any sort of Footy IQ can adapt to different positions. We’ve not only seen this movie, it’s been playing at NYCFC for a couple of years now.

 

[Gotham Gator]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485641707454615559