The 2017 MLS East/West InterConference Play Thread

Week 18 ended in the middle of a holiday weekend and Week 19 started 2 days later so I need to catch up.

Week 18 - 4 Games
East Record 3-1-0
At Home 2-0-0
On Road 1-1-0
Goal Differential +5
East Points 9
West Points 3

Season To Date
East Record 29-18-19
At Home 23-3-7 (33)
On Road 6-15-12 (33)
Goal Differential +28
East Points 106
West Points 73
 
Week 19 - 7 Games
East Record 2-3-2
At Home 1-0-0
On Road 1-3-2
Goal Differential -2
East Points 8
West Points 11

Season To Date
East Record 31-21-21
At Home 24-3-7 (34)
On Road 7-18-14 (39)
Goal Differential +26
East Points 114
West Points 84

The west had 6 at Home and 1 Away and gained all of 3 points on the East.
 
Any hypotheses for why? Might surface via a team by team Team 16 interconference / Team 17 interconference comparison. Obviously Atlanta > MNUTD so far, but it's still puzzling to me that so many teams in the West regressed while Eastern teams made forward strides.
 
Any hypotheses for why? Might surface via a team by team Team 16 interconference / Team 17 interconference comparison. Obviously Atlanta > MNUTD so far, but it's still puzzling to me that so many teams in the West regressed while Eastern teams made forward strides.
I think it's just a team-by-team thing and don't think you can make a meaningful conference-wide rationale.
 
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Week 20 - 7 Games
East Record 3-3-1
At Home 2-2-1
On Road 1-1-0
Goal Differential +4
East Points 10
West Points 10

Season To Date
East Record 34-24-22
At Home 26-5-8 (39)
On Road 8-19-14 (41)
Goal Differential +30
East Points 124
West Points 94

Modest success for the West this week, breaking even in a week with 5 of 7 games held in East Conference stadiums. Red Bulls won 2 of the games for the East this week, and singlehandedly had a +7 Goal Differential, but still have a losing record against the West overall. On the other hand, since they are thick in the middle of the East Conference standings, it is probably better for them to overperform against the East, which they are doing relative to themselves.

NYC is also doing better against the East than the West, though manages a winning record against both. NYC also has a small overload of West Conference games remaining, making up 5 of the remaining 13. Overall, 67% of the interconference games are done, while NYC has only played 55%.
 
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Week 21 - 3 Games
East Record 0-2-1
At Home 0-0-0
On Road 0-2-1
Goal Differential -5
East Points 1
West Points 7

Season To Date
East Record 34-26-23
At Home 26-5-8 (39)
On Road 8-21-15 (44)
Goal Differential +25
East Points 125
West Points 101

Good week for the West, but all 3 games were in their home fields, and time is running out to make things close. There has never been any meaningful uncertainty as to which conference would come out ahead this year for a long time, and now the numbers just aren't there. With 39 games left, of which only 17 are Home for the West, they would have to go 20-12-7 just to pull even with the East.
 
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Week 22 - 3 Games
East Record 1-1-1
At Home 1-0-0
On Road 0-1-1
Goal Differential +1
East Points 4
West Points 4

Season To Date
East Record 35-27-24
At Home 27-5-8 (40)
On Road 8-22-16 (46)
Goal Differential +26
East Points 129
West Points 105
 
On a PPG basis, the East continues to be ahead of the West for each of the first 5 places in their respective tables. In fact, the Top 3 in the East remain higher than first place in the West (1.74 to 1.62). The only recent change is that now spots 6 and 7 in each table are higher for the West than the East, with Portland and San Jose having a higher PPG than Columbus and Orlando.
 
Heard this stat on Soccer in the City yesterday that is kinda crazy. Each of the top 6 teams in the East have 10 wins or more. There are 0 teams in the West that have 10 wins (though to be fair, the top 7 in the West are all at 9).
 
Heard this stat on Soccer in the City yesterday that is kinda crazy. Each of the top 6 teams in the East have 10 wins or more. There are 0 teams in the West that have 10 wins (though to be fair, the top 7 in the West are all at 9).
Dallas and Vancouver have two games in hand. But yes, your point is very valid, and crazy considering each West team gets to play Minnesota twice
 
Dallas and Vancouver have two games in hand. But yes, your point is very valid, and crazy considering each West team gets to play Minnesota twice

And RSL and two home games against LA (because even when you're on the road, you have a better chance of winning than the Galaxy).
 
This opportunity to beat up on the worst teams theory came up the last 2 years when the West was better than the East, and West conference fans would say the East was worse than it seemed because the best of the East could play multiple times against Chicago etc. I dug deep into the stats, during the off-season, then got distracted and never wrote it up, but from memory and some quick scanning:
  • Last year every non-playoff team in the East had a winning record at home but were road fiascos. So playing them 2x Home and Away is less favorable than playing then 1x at home, but better than 1x on the road. Then, most West teams had a mixed H/A schedule against the worst of the East combined, so on the whole it evened out. The West this year is a more muddy situation, but let's see how it looks at year end.
  • Causation is tricky: Does DC have the worst record in MLS right now because it has to play the best 3 teams in the league multiple times, or are the top 3 teams in MLS in the East because they get to play DC multiple times? Then look at our record against DC and it gets even less clear.
  • FWIW, the non-playoff teams in the East last year had a winning record against the non-playoff West even though the non playoff West had a better record overall and the West beat the East overall head to head.
  • At the moment, the PPG of the East playoff teams exceeds that of the West playoff teams by 0.16. The PPG of the East non-playoff teams exceeds that of the West counterparts only by 0.08. Which seems to indicate that the gap between the conferences is bigger at the top than the bottom, but what does that prove about strength of schedule?
 
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Week 23 - 4 Games
East Record 3-1-0
At Home 2-1-0
On Road 1-0-0
Goal Differential +5
East Points 9
West Points 3

Season To Date
East Record 38-28-24
At Home 29-6-8 (43)
On Road 9-22-16 (47)
Goal Differential +31
East Points 138
West Points 108

NYCFC is responsible for the East's road win this week. NYC is now 4-2-1 against the West for 1.86 PPG. NYC is 9-5-3 for 1.77 against the East. The East overall is earning 1.53 PPG against the West. The East excluding NYC is at 1.51 PPG.
 
Looking at the Supporters' Shield standings by points per game, the Top 5 teams are all from the East. The only caveat is that Atlanta and Dallas are tied on PPG, but Atlanta would have the first two tiebreakers. A team from the East could finish above every West team and still go on the road in the first round.
 
Week 24 - 4 Games
East Record 2-1-1
At Home 1-0-0
On Road 1-1-1
Goal Differential +1
East Points 7
West Points 4

Season To Date
East Record 40-29-25
At Home 30-6-8 (44)
On Road 10-23-17 (50)
Goal Differential +32
East Points 145
West Points 112
 
Week 24 - 4 Games
East Record 2-1-1
At Home 1-0-0
On Road 1-1-1
Goal Differential +1
East Points 7
West Points 4

Season To Date
East Record 40-29-25
At Home 30-6-8 (44)
On Road 10-23-17 (50)
Goal Differential +32
East Points 145
West Points 112
If we were handicapping the playoff spots based on this, the East deserve 8 spots with the west getting 4. Or maybe 7.5/4.5 - have a play-in for that half spot.
 
If we were handicapping the playoff spots based on this, the East deserve 8 spots with the west getting 4. Or maybe 7.5/4.5 - have a play-in for that half spot.
You'd think so, but if you take the SS standings and arrange them by PPG, each conference has 6 teams in the top 12 spots, which indicates that the standard 6-6 split is equitable. The big variance is that the East has 5 of the first 6 spots while the West has 5 of spots 7-12.
 
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Also, there's a similar split among the worst 10 teams. The East has 4 of 5 in spots 13-17, while the West has 4 of the last 5 teams at spots 18-22.
 
If we were handicapping the playoff spots based on this, the East deserve 8 spots with the west getting 4. Or maybe 7.5/4.5 - have a play-in for that half spot.

Well, the last two MLS Cups were held at an eastern conference venue and the west team won.
 
Not sure if this fits here or elsewhere, but interesting thing after reading about the 538 playoff predictions and looking at the standings.

The playoff field in the east is almost set. TFC, NYC, Chicago, NJ, and Atlanta all have 89% chance of making the playoffs or greater. Then its closer to a coin-flip between Montreal at 53% and Columbus at 44%. Next closest is NER at 16%. Looking at the standings seems to support this as well.

In the West, the field is almost surely set. Seattle, SKC, Houston, Dallas, and Vancouver all have 86% or greater. Next closest is San Jose at 27%, then RSL at 14%. Looking at the table, its easy to see this as well. SJ is one point below the line but Dallas (5th) and Vancouver (6th) both have 2 games in hand. I guess SJ could potentially catch Portland as they are 4 points back and have one game in hand on the Timbers. But SJ's goal differential is at an atrocious -12.