But...
Set Pieces. Set Pieces. Set Pieces. Set Pieces. Set Pieces.
Did Alexi Lalas appear behind anyone after reading that?
But...
Set Pieces. Set Pieces. Set Pieces. Set Pieces. Set Pieces.
Did Alexi Lalas appear behind anyone after reading that?
First story of the year:
theoutfield.substack.com
Valentín Castellanos Is The Best Striker In MLS
Taty has emerged as elite force and everyone better recognize.
theoutfield.substack.com
K Kjbert is gonna love this lolFirst story of the year:
Valentín Castellanos Is The Best Striker In MLS
Taty has emerged as elite force and everyone better recognize.
Not gonna argue with this article and he made a delicious move to feed ITS who wasted a chance booting it way over the crossbar but I really think he should have put at least one away today via head or foot.
shot was blocked by laryea, that's why it flew up so high and we got a corner out of it. that being said, ITS has lost his speed and should have capitalized on that move for sure. Taty has become quite the striker and probably would have picked up a PK today if it were a different ref ... he's been doing just about everything right lately except for being absolutely clinical.
Over on Reddit there's a lot of pushback to this article based on Taty not being a good, clinical finisher. Sometimes I like to engage on Reddit but mostly I don't so putting this here. Plus I'm not exactly disputing what they conclusion even though I think they're making a mistake that is relevant.
Finishing is Overrated
Note. I'm not claiming it is irrelevant, and if you want to reply as if I did just don't, please. But it is overrated.
I sorted all NYC strikers and wingers in ASA from 2019-2021. ASA lists 11 of them.
Taty has the worst cumulative Goals -xGoals differential in that time, and the third worst per 96 minutes. As I noted a few days ago, he really suffered in this category in 2020 for reasons we can only speculate.
Taty also has the most goals (21) in that time. He has the third most goals/96M behind Heber, and Mitrita.
Taty also has the most xG and xG per 96. Sure, his poor finishing, especially in 2020, arguably keeps him from being the elite of the elite. But scorers need to score. Taty does this by getting himself in situations to take shots from good positions. He generates a ton of xG and even with poor finishing ends up outscoring everyone. Shradi has 8 goals off of 5.44 xG in the same time period. That's great finishing. Taty is a much, much better scorer. He doesn't get hurt. He shows up (first rule is show up), works hard, and takes a lot of good shots. And if he took fewer, the slack would not be 100% taken up by Heber Shradi et al.. Taty's tendencies and ability and work rate gets us more shots overall. He's not just displacing shots from teammates.
Finishing is overrated, and taking a lot of shots from good positions is underrated. Both are important, but need to be weighed properly.
Also, FWIW I think Taty is diving a lot less this year.
Finishing is Overrated
Note. I'm not claiming it is irrelevant, and if you want to reply as if I did just don't, please. But it is overrated.
I sorted all NYC strikers and wingers in ASA from 2019-2021. ASA lists 11 of them.
Taty has the worst cumulative Goals -xGoals differential in that time, and the third worst per 96 minutes. As I noted a few days ago, he really suffered in this category in 2020 for reasons we can only speculate.
Taty also has the most goals (21) in that time. He has the third most goals/96M behind Heber, and Mitrita.
Taty also has the most xG and xG per 96. Sure, his poor finishing, especially in 2020, arguably keeps him from being the elite of the elite. But scorers need to score. Taty does this by getting himself in situations to take shots from good positions. He generates a ton of xG and even with poor finishing ends up outscoring everyone. Shradi has 8 goals off of 5.44 xG in the same time period. That's great finishing. Taty is a much, much better scorer. He doesn't get hurt. He shows up (first rule is show up), works hard, and takes a lot of good shots. And if he took fewer, the slack would not be 100% taken up by Heber Shradi et al.. Taty's tendencies and ability and work rate gets us more shots overall. He's not just displacing shots from teammates.
Finishing is overrated, and taking a lot of shots from good positions is underrated. Both are important, but need to be weighed properly.
Also, FWIW I think Taty is diving a lot less this year.
This is entirely correct. Good goal scorers make the runs and have the positional sense that gets them the ball in dangerous areas on multiple occasions.
From an analytical perspective, finishing is problematic for a couple of reasons.
Does it exist? Yes, but on the individual level it is very difficult to quantify. The stat nerds at ASA tell me that you need a couple of hundred shots on target in sample size to actually quantify it for an individual player. A starting #9 that puts up 30ish shots on target every season, could take 6 or 7 years to be able to quantify statistically their finishing.
You also don't really see people consistently overperform their xG season to season. If finishing had a really big impact, you would see the better finishers overperform their xG on a regular basis. When we see someone greatly overperform their xG one year and underperform it the next year, what you probably are seeing is just statistical noise due to a small sample size.
I think Heber is a great case study of that. In 2019, he was scored 5.1 more goals that expected. Everyone lauded his finishing. In 2020, he scored 2.2 less games than expected and everyone was quick to wonder what happened to his finishing. The real issue with Heber last year (which I will wager was in part to fitness issues) was that he created less high scoring goal scoring opportunities. When you look at his non-penalty xG is was significantly down going from 0.6 npxG per 90 in 20o19 to 0.33 npxG 2020.
I think for the casual fan this is a hard concept to internalize, because it doesn't pass their eye test. They can look at the stat sheet and see the number of goals people score. They watch the game and can see beautiful goals and painfully missed shots. See the finishing attributes in FIFA and Football Manager and think its more important that it actually is.
Does it exist? Yes, but on the individual level it is very difficult to quantify. The stat nerds at ASA tell me that you need a couple of hundred shots on target in sample size to actually quantify it for an individual player. A starting #9 that puts up 30ish shots on target every season, could take 6 or 7 years to be able to quantify statistically their finishing.
You also don't really see people consistently overperform their xG season to season. If finishing had a really big impact, you would see the better finishers overperform their xG on a regular basis. When we see someone greatly overperform their xG one year and underperform it the next year, what you probably are seeing is just statistical noise due to a small sample size.
I think Heber is a great case study of that. In 2019, he was scored 5.1 more goals that expected. Everyone lauded his finishing. In 2020, he scored 2.2 less games than expected and everyone was quick to wonder what happened to his finishing. The real issue with Heber last year (which I will wager was in part to fitness issues) was that he created less high scoring goal scoring opportunities. When you look at his non-penalty xG is was significantly down going from 0.6 npxG per 90 in 20o19 to 0.33 npxG 2020.
I think for the casual fan this is a hard concept to internalize, because it doesn't pass their eye test. They can look at the stat sheet and see the number of goals people score. They watch the game and can see beautiful goals and painfully missed shots. See the finishing attributes in FIFA and Football Manager and think its more important that it actually is.
If you were wondering where my info on the Dome departure came from:
theoutfield.substack.com
Why Dome Left
Former NYCFC manager Dome Torrent in an exclusive November 2019 interview with The Outfield went into detail about the conflicts that ultimately led to his departure.
theoutfield.substack.com
If you were wondering where my info on the Dome departure came from:
Why Dome Left
Former NYCFC manager Dome Torrent in an exclusive November 2019 interview with The Outfield went into detail about the conflicts that ultimately led to his departure.
I'm trying to think of some funny way to give props to the Outfield -- maybe "the articles are starting to get boring. They're all so good, so maybe throw in a bad one every once in a while to keep it spicy."
Or maybe I can just say that the articles are consistently great and leave it at that.
It was a good and interesting write up. Would love to have been there - Dome always seemed like a really interesting character.
If he really did leave because he didn't like the pressure on his job in early 2019, then he made a mistake that has cost both sides.
By the end of 2019, with a 2nd place finish and a beautiful style of play, he had the maximum job security a coach can have in soccer. Instead, he left, didn't find a job for a while, and got one in Brazil, where coaches have a notoriously short leash. Lost that job and is now looking for work. Even if he gets a position in England or Germany, he's not going to get the runway that he had when he arrived in New York and certainly won't get the time he would have had if he had stayed with the Club.
Meanwhile, New York spent all of 2020 breaking in a new manager, has had to conduct a minor overhaul of the roster, and now is at square one. Who knows where things might go.
If he really did leave because he didn't like the pressure on his job in early 2019, then he made a mistake that has cost both sides.
By the end of 2019, with a 2nd place finish and a beautiful style of play, he had the maximum job security a coach can have in soccer. Instead, he left, didn't find a job for a while, and got one in Brazil, where coaches have a notoriously short leash. Lost that job and is now looking for work. Even if he gets a position in England or Germany, he's not going to get the runway that he had when he arrived in New York and certainly won't get the time he would have had if he had stayed with the Club.
Meanwhile, New York spent all of 2020 breaking in a new manager, has had to conduct a minor overhaul of the roster, and now is at square one. Who knows where things might go.
If you were wondering where my info on the Dome departure came from:
Why Dome Left
Former NYCFC manager Dome Torrent in an exclusive November 2019 interview with The Outfield went into detail about the conflicts that ultimately led to his departure.
"Upon sitting down, Torrent wanted to talk about Major League Soccer. He made it very clear that he disagreed with criticism that he did not understand MLS or its quagmire of roster rules that make it difficult for foreign-born coaches to adapt."
"Torrent referred to a list, the same list where he revealed Heber was not the club’s top replacement choice, but rather the club’s ninth option. He said other options were not possible due to salary cap restrictions and simply because other players did not want to play in MLS."
Maybe he understood MLS rules and logistics, but the second [indirect] quote confirms that he found dealing with MLS limitations frustrating (which is what Stejskal actually said at the link in the first quote) even though he was apparently willing to deal with them if another MLS job presented itself. People are complicated.
"Torrent referred to a list, the same list where he revealed Heber was not the club’s top replacement choice, but rather the club’s ninth option. He said other options were not possible due to salary cap restrictions and simply because other players did not want to play in MLS."
Maybe he understood MLS rules and logistics, but the second [indirect] quote confirms that he found dealing with MLS limitations frustrating (which is what Stejskal actually said at the link in the first quote) even though he was apparently willing to deal with them if another MLS job presented itself. People are complicated.
Yes, and Reyna did the club no favors by allowing the van Bronckhorst rumors to openly fester for several months. You're right that despite the pressure and rumors Torrent had a longer rope here than he will get at most leagues this level or above, but it also wasn't good the way Reyna let that situation develop, especially just before he left himself.
I have a feeling the minor roster shakeup would have had to happen regardless.
Also, while I don't blame NYCFC for starting to look for a new coach at the time things were going bad, I think the way everything was going about with news of Gio and all that, definitely didn't help the situation. It seemed from the news reports that NYCFC was planning on replacing Dome regardless, so I can get why he was thinking the way he was. It seems both sides have problems here, but I'd say it's more on the NYCFC side.
I agree on the second. The roster barely changed between 2019 (Torrent) and 2020 (Deila). The big change came between 2020 and 20201, and some of it was organic (selling players at the right point on their age/value parabola) and some driven by salary cap contraction in 2021 due to the plage in 2020.
On the first point, I'm less confident than you. I get that combining a new coach with the lockdown break/tournament/short season was an especially toxic mix, but 2020 was so weird I don't think you can assume success under any circumstances. But then I still think Columbus over-achieved and were quite lucky.
1. Lewandowski
2. Suarez
3. Cavani
4. Giroud
5. Benzema
6. Mandzukic
7. Icardi
8. Mario Gomez
9. Heber
10. Ola Kamara
IMHO, this was more on the front office not getting a striker on time than dealing with the roster rules. Other clubs in MLS don't have the issues that NYCFC has had bringing people in on time in the beginning of the season. He also was not happy with the level of DP spending compared to the other top clubs in MLS. Also got the impression that there was more to the Reyna conflict than what he said.
If you were wondering where my info on the Dome departure came from:
Why Dome Left
Former NYCFC manager Dome Torrent in an exclusive November 2019 interview with The Outfield went into detail about the conflicts that ultimately led to his departure.
Felt like Christmas when I saw this in my mail today.
I’m hoping that this is just part one in a series of “A night with Dome”.
There has be more after 3 hours of wine and a tactical board.
Please Outfield...
