2019 By The Numbers: There's A City In My Mind, Come Along

  • Welcome to NYCFC Forums 2.0. Since completing our upgrade I've had a number of people request to make a donation. If you'd like to Donate you may do so via this Paypal link below. Thank you all for the support and your willingness to cobtribute.
Consider becoming a 'donor' member to help support the forums! Click Here To Upgrade

mgarbowski

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Donor
Seasoned Supporter
Jul 16, 2014
11,532
32,615
353
Queens, NY
mgarbowski.com
How do people think the East ends up for spots 1 through 7? I think the current PPG is the likely outcome, except I will flop DC and NE. So, it's NYC, PHI, ATL, NE, NJ, DC, TOR.
NYC, ATL, PHI, DC, NE, RB, MTL.

The numbers tell me Toronto will probably pass Montreal, but I think Piatti's return could save the Impact, and I want Lassi Lappalainen to score a million goals just so everyone has to type Lassi Lappalainen as much as possible.
I also moved Atlanta ahead of the Union and played with the DC/NE/RB order.
 

LionNYC

Senior Member
Staff member
Elite Donor
Seasoned Supporter
Jan 2, 2015
15,129
26,299
303
New York, NY
NYC, ATL, PHI, DC, NE, RB, MTL.

The numbers tell me Toronto will probably pass Montreal, but I think Piatti's return could save the Impact, and I want Lassi Lappalainen to score a million goals just so everyone has to type Lassi Lappalainen as much as possible.
I also moved Atlanta ahead of the Union and played with the DC/NE/RB order.
I don't know about that. Bobby Warshaw said that Toronto is the best team in the East. And you know he's always right about that stuff.

8TH PLACE NYCFC!
 

mgarbowski

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Donor
Seasoned Supporter
Jul 16, 2014
11,532
32,615
353
Queens, NY
mgarbowski.com
By the way, here are NYCFC's 5 goal scorers by year:

2015 3
Villa Mullins, McNamara
2016 4
Villa, Lampard, McNamara, Mendoza
2017 3
Villa, Harrison, Moralez
2018 4
Villa, Shradi, Moralez, Medina
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: SoupInNYC and adam

adam

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Donor
Seasoned Supporter
May 30, 2014
7,571
17,842
353
41
LBNY
By the way, here are NYCFC's 5 goal scorers by year:

2015 3
Villa Mullins, McNamara
2016 4
Villa, Lampard, McNamara Mendoza
2017 3
Villa, Harrison, Moralez
2018 4
Villa, Shradi, Moralez, Medina
Without spoiling. The last one for 2016 I never would have guessed.
 

Shwafta

Active Member
Jan 16, 2018
2,212
2,915
273
22
Long Island
Without spoiling. The last one for 2016 I never would have guessed.
Honestly, probably would have been able to guess it. Who else scored anything in 2016? ...am I the only one that thinks we should have had him stay and would have been a great backup in 2017 and 2018?
 

adam

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Donor
Seasoned Supporter
May 30, 2014
7,571
17,842
353
41
LBNY
Honestly, probably would have been able to guess it. Who else scored anything in 2016? ...am I the only one that thinks we should have had him stay and would have been a great backup in 2017 and 2018?
I think we were paying him $900k. Not exactly backup $. And that was before the new TAM rules and extra _AM for all the clubs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Shwafta

mgarbowski

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Donor
Seasoned Supporter
Jul 16, 2014
11,532
32,615
353
Queens, NY
mgarbowski.com
(Don’t Wanna Go) Up and Down

NYCFC have now played at Rocky Mountain altitude in 2 of their last 3 games, winning once and losing once (with a win at 33 feet above sea level in NYC in between).

Last week NYC won while most of its East Conference rivals lost, this week NYC loses while Atlanta, Philadelphia and the Red Bulls win.

The most dangerous lead in soccer is apparently 1-0 in a NYCFC Away game. The team to score first has lost in NYCFC’s last 3 road games, and has only won 4 times this year in 11 games. Every one of those 4 wins was a shutout (3 by NYC).

Screen Shot 2019-08-06 at 8.29.47 AM.png
Screen Shot 2019-08-06 at 8.51.47 AM.png


NYCFC’s last 5 games L-L-W-W-L has them again sitting just below Philadelphia on both the current PPG and Points at 21 Games metric. Missing players forms a common thread to most of NYC’s recent struggles. At RSL they were without arguably their best winger (Shradi), best defender (Callens) and best player (Maxi). But that has to be a concern going forward as NYC has to make up so many games, which will definitely require some squad rotation and possibly cause injuries.
East-2019-08-05.png
Screen Shot 2019-08-06 at 8.34.22 AM.png


In the race between annual versions of NYCFC, we have just hit the peak of 2018, when Domè won 5 of his first 6 games as head coach and everyone was wearing pineapple shirts.The 2017 slide started about 6 games later, if you’re wondering when 2019 has it’s best chance to catch up.

Screen Shot 2019-08-06 at 8.33.51 AM.png
Based on their records at Home, the just concluded RSL game and Atlanta game in a few days are the 2 toughest Away games on NYCFC’s schedule all year. After Atlanta this coming weekend, the schedule gets very easy, on paper at least, with 7 straight very winnable games of which 5 are at home. After that, there is a tough final month with FCD(A)-ATL(H)-NER(A)-PHI(A).

You don’t have to be so tough (well come on)
I’ll tell you when I’ve had enough (well come on)
 
Last edited:

adam

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Donor
Seasoned Supporter
May 30, 2014
7,571
17,842
353
41
LBNY
(Don’t Wanna Go) Up and Down

NYCFC have now played at Rocky Mountain altitude in 2 of their last 3 games, winning once and losing once (with a win at 33 feet above sea level in NYC in between).

Last week NYC won while most of its East Conference rivals lost, this week NYC loses while Atlanta, Philadelphia and the Red Bulls win.

The most dangerous lead in soccer is apparently 1-0 in a NYCFC Away game. The team to score first has lost in NYCFC’s last 3 road games, and has only won 4 times this year in 11 games. Every one of those 4 wins was a shutout (3 by NYC).

View attachment 10072
View attachment 10076

NYCFC’s last 5 games L-L-W-W-L has them again sitting just below Philadelphia on both the current PPG and Points at 21 Games metric. Missing players forms a common thread to most of NYC’s recent struggles. At RSL they were without arguably their best winger (Shradi), best defender (Callens) and bets player (Maxi). But that has to be a concern going forward as NYC has to make up so many games, which will definitely require some squad rotation and possibly cause injuries.
View attachment 10075
View attachment 10074

In the race between annual versions of NYCFC, we have just hit the peak of 2018, when Domè won 5 of his first 6 games as head coach and everyone was wearing pineapple shirts.The 2017 slide started about 6 games later, if you’re wondering when 2019 has it’s best chance to catch up.

View attachment 10073
Based on their records at Home, the just concluded RSL game and Atlanta game in a few days are the 2 toughest Away games on NYCFC’s schedule all year. After Atlanta this coming weekend, the schedule gets very easy, on paper at least, with 7 straight very winnable games of which 5 are at home. After that, there is a tough final month with FCD(A)-ATL(H)-NER(A)-PHI(A).

You don’t have to be so tough (well come on)
I’ll tell you when I’ve had enough (well come on)
Are those last week's standings up there?

Also in regards to our extra matches causing injury, our schedule isn't more condensed than the rest of the teams, we just continue to play through the international break. That could be a blessing in disguise, keeping us in form while the other teams are taking a week and a half off.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Shwafta

Shwafta

Active Member
Jan 16, 2018
2,212
2,915
273
22
Long Island
Are those last week's standings up there?

Also in regards to our extra matches causing injury, our schedule isn't more condensed than the rest of the teams, we just continue to play through the international break. That could be a blessing in disguise, keeping us in form while the other teams are taking a week and a half off.
We said the same thing for the playoff match and look what happened :)
 

mgarbowski

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Donor
Seasoned Supporter
Jul 16, 2014
11,532
32,615
353
Queens, NY
mgarbowski.com
Are those last week's standings up there?

Also in regards to our extra matches causing injury, our schedule isn't more condensed than the rest of the teams, we just continue to play through the international break. That could be a blessing in disguise, keeping us in form while the other teams are taking a week and a half off.
Oops. I was so excited about the multi-image upload feature I didn't notice I was pulling week old images,

As for the compression, I very much doubt (but admittedly haven't checked every single possibility) that any other team has as many midweek games as we do. I think you are right in that it is not proportional to all our extra games. We might have only 1 or maybe 2 extra midweek games compared to the rest of the league despite being 3-4 games behind. But I do think there is some extra compression.
 
  • Like
Reactions: adam

adam

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Donor
Seasoned Supporter
May 30, 2014
7,571
17,842
353
41
LBNY
Oops. I was so excited about the multi-image upload feature I didn't notice I was pulling week old images,

As for the compression, I very much doubt (but admittedly haven't checked every single possibility) that any other team has as many midweek games as we do. I think you are right in that it is not proportional to all our extra games. We might have only 1 or maybe 2 extra midweek games compared to the rest of the league despite being 3-4 games behind. But I do think there is some extra compression.

Well I broke it down (added ATL's USOC final in too. If you want conspiracy theory, look how their 26th & 27th matches were spaced perfectly for the Campeones Cup and USOC Final). Seems we have 2-3 other teams playing on the same date/or a day off for all our fixtures. On toly ones we don't are the 2 during the international break where we have a week off, then a mid-week match before getting back into our normal routine. Interesting, we then don't have a mid-week match on 9/18 when 2 other teams do, so we get some rest from in International break play. Atlanta looks like the team with the schedule to wear it down, they are also the only top east team to play on the 9/18 mid-week date and then again on 9/25 with their normal weekend fixtures. And Martinez is already hurt...


Screen Shot 2019-08-07 at 10.52.38 AM.png
 

mgarbowski

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Donor
Seasoned Supporter
Jul 16, 2014
11,532
32,615
353
Queens, NY
mgarbowski.com
Switchin' To Glide
NYCFC has 6 of the last 10 at Home, which is nice, but the next 6 games are where the team needs to accumulate wins and points. Five of the next six are at home, and the lone Away game in that stretch is against Vancouver, which has a losing record at home right now. Yes, that game involves transcontinental travel, and other games will be on short rest, and the Red Bulls are always tough, and NYCFC’s record at home against New England is worse than against any team outside of Portland. But there is no denying these games are easier than the last 4 games of the season. None of the 5 teams NYC will host at Yankee Stadium in this stretch has an Away PPG better than 1.15 PPG. That’s New England’s Away PPG, and it’s also worth mentioning that the Revs are undefeated Away since firing Friedel (3-0-4). But these are still 5 poor Away teams with an average of fewer than 3 Away wins per team. NYCFC probably needs 15+ points (OK maybe 13 or 14 if other things go well but that’s pushing it) from these 6 games to have a shot at finishing first as it heads into the final 4 games, which include hosting Atlanta, and Away to Dallas, New England and Philadelphia.
Screen Shot 2019-08-19 at 8.11.31 AM.png

It looks like a 3-way race for first place in the East right now.

The Atlanta win over Portland in Portland was huge. According to 538, that game by itself dropped NYC’s odds of coming in first from 51% to 43% (though still slightly higher than Atlanta at 42%). Before that game Atlanta had won 4 of 5 in league play but all 4 wins were at home, their road form has been very poor, and the 5 Stripes faced a schedule in which 6 of their final 9 were away. But they just won a very tough road game on short rest and transcontinental travel and raised their Away PPG from 0.82 to 1.00. They still have 5 Away of their remaining 8 but those include Orlando, whom they always seem to beat, and Cincinnati. Their harder Away games are Philadelphia and NYC. The wildcard is their game at Montreal, where the Impact are not invincible but reasonably tough, and Montreal is a wildly unpredictable team this year. By the way: Atlanta has 12 wins by shutout. NYC and Montreal are the only teams to score on Atlanta and lose.

The Union have just 7 games remaining. 4 Home 3 Away. But their Home games are fairly difficult, hosting DC, Atlanta, LAFC and NYC. The Union’s Away games are to the Red Bulls, San Jose (much tougher at Home than Away) and Columbus.

Based on schedule alone. I think Philadelphia slips a little. Atlanta still has those road games, and the question is whether the win over Portland is an outlier or a early indicator of a new trend in which they start winning Away. NYC’s schedule is comparatively soft, and if they slip I think it will be on performance. Also, I’m not concerned too much with the midweek game situation and short rest for NYC. NYCFC has 6 remaining games on short rest. That is a lot, but so does Atlanta. And every time NYC plays on short rest from now to the end of the season, its opponent also will be on similar rest, within a day at most. NYC never plays on short rest against a team on 6 or 7 days rest the rest of the season.
Nothing matters but the weekend/ From a Tuesday point of view.

East-2019-08-19.png
We are close to surpassing the bottom rungs of the future possibilities table.
Screen Shot 2019-08-19 at 8.11.05 AM.png
NYCFC 2019 still trails 2018, but the opportunity to do better is clearly there.
Screen Shot 2019-08-19 at 8.11.17 AM.png
I took last week off which was a double game week. So here are the mythical standings in which every team in the East has played the same number of games for 22, 23 and 24 games:
Screen Shot 2019-08-10 at 1.06.01 PM.pngScreen Shot 2019-08-17 at 10.19.53 PM.pngScreen Shot 2019-08-19 at 7.22.16 AM.png

Finally, the magic number to clinch not finishing last is 2, so 1 NYCFC win or Cincy loss or Cincy draw manages that. The number to clinch over Columbus is 8, so a win over them midweek, plus 1 additional NYCFC win or Crew loss or Crew draw manages that and is possible this weekend. Next up behind them is Chicago for whom NYC’s magic number is 11.
 

SoupInNYC

Senior Member
Elite Donor
Mar 9, 2015
4,744
10,777
303
32
UES
It looks like a 3-way race for first place in the East right now.

The Atlanta win over Portland in Portland was huge. According to 538, that game by itself dropped NYC’s odds of coming in first from 51% to 43% (though still slightly higher than Atlanta at 42%). Before that game Atlanta had won 4 of 5 in league play but all 4 wins were at home, their road form has been very poor, and the 5 Stripes faced a schedule in which 6 of their final 9 were away. But they just won a very tough road game on short rest and transcontinental travel and raised their Away PPG from 0.82 to 1.00. They still have 5 Away of their remaining 8 but those include Orlando, whom they always seem to beat, and Cincinnati. Their harder Away games are Philadelphia and NYC. The wildcard is their game at Montreal, where the Impact are not invincible but reasonably tough, and Montreal is a wildly unpredictable team this year. By the way: Atlanta has 12 wins by shutout. NYC and Montreal are the only teams to score on Atlanta and lose.

The Union have just 7 games remaining. 4 Home 3 Away. But their Home games are fairly difficult, hosting DC, Atlanta, LAFC and NYC. The Union’s Away games are to the Red Bulls, San Jose (much tougher at Home than Away) and Columbus.

Based on schedule alone. I think Philadelphia slips a little. Atlanta still has those road games, and the question is whether the win over Portland is an outlier or a early indicator of a new trend in which they start winning Away. NYC’s schedule is comparatively soft, and if they slip I think it will be on performance. Also, I’m not concerned too much with the midweek game situation and short rest for NYC. NYCFC has 6 remaining games on short rest. That is a lot, but so does Atlanta. And every time NYC plays on short rest from now to the end of the season, its opponent also will be on similar rest, within a day at most. NYC never plays on short rest against a team on 6 or 7 days rest the rest of the season.
Nothing matters but the weekend/ From a Tuesday point of view.
I read the first part and thought to myself, "I don't know if it's really a 3-way race, Philly's remaining schedule is really, really tough. And then of course you got there a few paragraphs later.

As always, great stuff.
 

canchon

Active Member
Seasoned Supporter
Aug 11, 2015
2,323
7,192
273
43
Brooklyn, NY
I’ll let others do the full stat review after this glorious 9 pt week, but NYCFC now has eight games left, sitting on 47 points.

To me the goal now should be 60+ points. To hit 60 NYCFC needs to go 4-3-1 which is quite reasonable.

I’m also not sure that 60 points will win the East. Yikes.