General MLS Discussion

Shwafta

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Fantazma

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LMAO Sam knows how controversial power rankings are:
View attachment 11108
im generally not one to put much weight to power rankings ( in any sport). you are what your record says you are. Can you be trending upward or downward in the middle or end of the season ? Sure just look at past 3/5 games to see the trend etc.
 

moogoo

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LMAO Sam knows how controversial power rankings are:
View attachment 11108
yea.. don't kill the messenger as they say.

There's always going to be controversy as far as who is actually in the top 5.. but i think where you are in general, is a good indicator of what to expect.

based on what we know of our team right now, i think middle of the pack is pretty spot on. if i was placing a bet on where we'll be in the table at the end of the season, i would probably put us mid-table out of the entire league. give or take a few spots.

i just hope the team pulls together and performs better than expectations. Add a few more players in june/july and maybe we'll even be cup or SS contenders. Personally, i'd much rather have my expectations exceeded and pleasantly surprised than be disappointed. So, these low expectations are perfect. GAME ON.
 

Shwafta

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Fantazma

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538's ratings just came out and have us 3rd in the league. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Check out the betting line on the DC away game.

The more sophisticated analysts have us near the top of the league not in the middle.
this is also confusing to me. from what i recall they use previous seasons results into the calculation. and we did not do well ending up 5th. no way we are up there even above columbus for example. unless it means that losing mata and ring helped us in the numbers game and go even higher?
 

mgarbowski

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this is also confusing to me. from what i recall they use previous seasons results into the calculation. and we did not do well ending up 5th. no way we are up there even above columbus for example. unless it means that losing mata and ring helped us in the numbers game and go even higher?
This surprised me as well, though looking at it more closely, it is a bit less shocking than I first thought.

I understand the three pillars of their analysis to be prior results, transfers out/in (with money as a proxy for quality), and some element of advanced stats. On prior results NYCFC finished 7th in the league last year. I tend to forget that because we were only 5th in the East. So we're not starting as far down as I thought.
On transfers, I cannot see how we are anywhere above mid-table. Transfermarkt has our squad ranked 11th most valuable at the moment. You can reasonably expect big moves come summer but I don't think the 538 algorithm can do that.
But then on advanced stats, ASA had NYCFC second in the league only to Seattle last year in xGoal differential (and first in Goals Added Diff). We weren't especially lucky or unlucky, as our Actual GD slightly exceeded our xG GD by 0.63. Basically, our GD matched what the stats predicted.

Now look at which teams had an Actual GD that was much better than their xGD last year and by how much:
POR 16.25 (3)
CLB 14.65 (1)
PHI 13.55 (4)
ORL 11.83 (7)
MIN 9.61 (5)

Were they lucky? More gritty or clinical? Are advanced stats silly? We might never get a definitive answer, but that list is a who's who of the consensus best MLS teams right now according to humans, excluding LAFC (a special case with Vela out last year). In fact, the number in "( )" is their current MLS Power Ranking. Meanwhile Advanced Stats indicate that those teams are not as good as their actual results make it seem. I have to think the difference between the human made Power Rankings and algorithmic 538 rankings is mostly the advanced stats, where NYCFC looked really good last year.
 
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Fantazma

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I have to think the difference between the human made Power Rankings and algorithmic 538 rankings is mostly the advanced stats, where NYCFC looked really good last year.
its crazy the numbers would say that since we kept saying last year ( and this year) that we cant score and are lacking up front and it resulted in losing points. Or be eliminated like in the playoff game.
 

moogoo

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mgarbowski

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its crazy the numbers would say that since we kept saying last year ( and this year) that we cant score and are lacking up front and it resulted in losing points. Or be eliminated like in the playoff game.
I'm not sure that's really inconsistent. I thought the board consensus was we created a lot of chances but finished poorly. That can lead to very good Advanced stats yet not so great actual results.
 
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mgarbowski

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u-22 initiative is now official:

SInce at least 2 teams have used it (Atlanta and NYCFC) I'm surprised they waited this long.