The toughest looking road games IMO are the next one against RB and San Jose whose overall record is so-so but 6-1-3 at Home, plus cross-country travel.. The other five seem very winnable.
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Some other numbers.
We won our first game, and then we went on that terrible 7 game winless streak. 7 points in our first 8 games.
Since then, we have gotten 26 points in our subsequent 13 games.
You can also break the season to date into thirds.
First 7 games - 6 points
Middle 7 games - 12 points
Last 7 games - 15 points
We won our first game, and then we went on that terrible 7 game winless streak. 7 points in our first 8 games.
Since then, we have gotten 26 points in our subsequent 13 games.
You can also break the season to date into thirds.
First 7 games - 6 points
Middle 7 games - 12 points
Last 7 games - 15 points
We have 19 points in 10 games. We need to get to 34 points in 17 games - or 15 in our last 7 - to tie the record. That's 5 wins and 2 losses or 4 wins and 3 ties.
at NJRB
at San Jose
at Columbus
at Orlando
at New England
at Houston
at DC
Dude. What's this bullshit about a tying a record? 5 wins, 1 loss, 1 tie. Record is ours. Booyah!!!
How are they in ranking now ? Could they make the Play Offs and what do you credit for the turn around?
I'd put money on making the playoffs. And I wouldn't call this a turnaround. We were good early but had some bad breaks. Frank and Jack have moved us from good to very good and it's been a number of games since we've had an unlucky result.
FWIW, we've climbed to 4th or 5th in betting odds to win the MLS Cup, depending on the site. Strangely enough, oddsmakers still like the Red Bulls as high as 2nd on one site. Generally though, it goes Los Angeles, Dallas, Colorado, and then either NYCFC or Red Bulls.
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to link betting sites, but here's a copy and paste from one:
Los Angeles Galaxy+400(4)Compare odds
FC Dallas+737(4)Compare odds
Colorado Rapids+787(4)Compare odds
New York City+900(4)Compare odds
New York Red Bulls+975(4)Compare odds
Sporting Kansas City+1500(4)Compare odds
Portland Timbers+1625(4)Compare odds
Real Salt Lake+1625(4)Compare odds
Vancouver Whitecaps+1850(4)Compare odds
Philadelphia Union+1875(4)Compare odds
Montreal Impact+2000(4)Compare odds
Toronto FC+2125(4)Compare odds
New England Revolution+3400(4)Compare odds
San Jose Earthquakes+3475(4)Compare odds
DC United+3925(4)Compare odds
Seattle Sounders+4650(4)Compare odds
Orlando City+4875(4)Compare odds
Columbus Crew+6575(4)Compare odds
Houston Dynamo+9400(4)Compare odds
Chicago Fire+12500
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to link betting sites, but here's a copy and paste from one:
Los Angeles Galaxy+400(4)Compare odds
FC Dallas+737(4)Compare odds
Colorado Rapids+787(4)Compare odds
New York City+900(4)Compare odds
New York Red Bulls+975(4)Compare odds
Sporting Kansas City+1500(4)Compare odds
Portland Timbers+1625(4)Compare odds
Real Salt Lake+1625(4)Compare odds
Vancouver Whitecaps+1850(4)Compare odds
Philadelphia Union+1875(4)Compare odds
Montreal Impact+2000(4)Compare odds
Toronto FC+2125(4)Compare odds
New England Revolution+3400(4)Compare odds
San Jose Earthquakes+3475(4)Compare odds
DC United+3925(4)Compare odds
Seattle Sounders+4650(4)Compare odds
Orlando City+4875(4)Compare odds
Columbus Crew+6575(4)Compare odds
Houston Dynamo+9400(4)Compare odds
Chicago Fire+12500
Yes and since i gave David Villa the nickname Batman then now we have our Boy Wonder Jack Harrison ! and My Andrea's just Mr Smooth stroking his beard and watching this all happen as he plots the next move with a glass of his wine and a smile that kills !! Thank-You!
FootyLovin
Interesting... and some strange odds. The East teams are an opportunity here. Yes, the West is stronger, but that cuts both ways. Any West team is going to have a tougher road to the finals because of the quality of the opponents it will face to get there. Plus, even if the 3rd place West team is better than the best East team, it will have to play an extra round. Finally, the final itself is a single game where anything can happen.
In the East, I think we are a possibility for the finals along with Philly, and I think Montréal and Toronto could get there if they can get healthy. I have my doubts about New Jersey.
In the West, any of LA, Colorado, Portland and Dallas could do it, but again, 2 of those teams are going to have to survive a knockout round.
Interesting how big the dropoff is after NJRB. Also, they spelled New Jersey wrong, not sure if I can trust this site.
I'm not up to doing the weekly write-up. I hope to do it later in the week. Meanwhile...
How close the race for first place in the East?
Montreal (4th Place) can pass us without needing us to lose or even tie.
Philadelphia (3rd) and Toronto (5th) can tie us without needing us to lose or even tie, and will have tie-breaker advantage.
RB (2nd) can tie us with the help of one NYC tie and will have tie-breaker advantage, and can pass us with one NYCFC loss.
The odd thing is the team in second place (NYRB) is the one that needs the most help to pass us, but the important thing is two bad games could easily drop us to 5th place. Sixth would take a bit more and there's a decent cushion before dropping out of the playoffs into 7th. But spots 1-5 are really bunched up.
How close the race for first place in the East?
Montreal (4th Place) can pass us without needing us to lose or even tie.
Philadelphia (3rd) and Toronto (5th) can tie us without needing us to lose or even tie, and will have tie-breaker advantage.
RB (2nd) can tie us with the help of one NYC tie and will have tie-breaker advantage, and can pass us with one NYCFC loss.
The odd thing is the team in second place (NYRB) is the one that needs the most help to pass us, but the important thing is two bad games could easily drop us to 5th place. Sixth would take a bit more and there's a decent cushion before dropping out of the playoffs into 7th. But spots 1-5 are really bunched up.
I'd probably rather play them in one game than two. There's a chance we just win that, while the odds we lose at least one of the two games in a tie set by a huge margin seems disturbingly likely.
One quirk I just noticed about this grouping is that NYCFC is done playing all of those teams for the rest of the season. The remainder of the East Conference games for the Blue Meanies are against teams currently ranked 6 through 10 on the Table.* That's should be good for us. Meanwhile, MTL, PHI, RB and TFC all play the others 5 times each between now and the end of the season. That's 10 games where as of now we'll be hoping for ties. At worst, one of the teams comes out of those games with nothing.
* In contrast, of our 5 remaining games against the West, 3 are against teams currently sitting in spots 1 through 3 in the West Table.
Last edited:
We definitely have some favorable schedule dynamics this year in terms of only playing Phi, Mon and Tor twice each. Our western conf allocation of good teams at home and bad teams on the road should also be very favorable if we can actually win at home now, but I don't deign to have cracked that code.
I know. I believe we've gotten better as a team and had to work through a tough transition, but that doesn't for me completely answer the question of whether we were bad at home solely because the games were front-loaded into that transition period, or are we also just not as good at home.
N
NYC24
Guest
The pessimist in me thinks our playoff chances are only 50%, and there is at least a 10% chance we are the worst team in the league for the remainder of the season.
The optimist in me says there's a 70% chance of playoffs, especially since the coaches in this league think they have more important things to do than 'look at the game tape.' In other words most of the coaches we will be facing aren't smart enough to Sporting Red Bull us.
Most of the sites that post odds have us around 90% to make the playoffs. There is no way that's right.
The optimist in me says there's a 70% chance of playoffs, especially since the coaches in this league think they have more important things to do than 'look at the game tape.' In other words most of the coaches we will be facing aren't smart enough to Sporting Red Bull us.
Most of the sites that post odds have us around 90% to make the playoffs. There is no way that's right.
All you have to do is find four Eastern Conference teams that are worse than us. Chicago is a given. Columbus is a very good second pick.
And I don't think DC and Orlando can fix themselves in 2016.
Similar threads
- Poll