2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[Gotham Gator]

After this week's games, everyone is on equal footing. Two games left for everybody.

Here are the remaining games for each team in contention. Chicago, Columbus and Orlando are out. Place your bets!

51 - NJR: CLB, @PHI
51 - NYC: @DCU, CLB
49 - TOR: @MON, CHI
44 - MON: TOR, @NER
43 - DCU: NYC, @ORL
42 - PHI: ORL, NJR
-------------------
39 - NER: @CHI, MON

 

[Gotham Gator]

Another update on seeding probabilities after this past weekend. You can see last week's odds above. Getting at least 6 points guarantees us the Top 2. Even as few as 2 points and we are better than 50-50.

SS Win: 1.3%
EC Win: 30% (up from 11%)
2-Seed: 43% ---> Top 2 = 73%, up from 37%
3-Seed: 27% (can't finish lower than this)

Points in last 2 matches & odds of making Top 2 in the East.
6 - 100%
4 - 94%
3 - 88%
2 - 66%
1 - 34%
0 - 28%

Link to the site.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

Here are the playoff odds going into the last 2 games. Getting at least 6 points guarantees us the Top 2. Even as few as 2 points and we are better than 50-50.

SS Win: 1.6%
EC Win: 30%
2-Seed: 43% ---> Top 2 = 73%
3-Seed: 27% (can't finish lower than this)

Points in last 2 matches & odds of making Top 2 in the East.
6 - 100%
4 - 94%
3 - 88%
2 - 66%
1 - 35%
0 - 28%

Link to the site.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

 

[JayH]

It would be helpful for Philly to still be at risk of missing the playoffs when they play the RB in the final week.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Here are the playoff odds going into the last 2 games. Getting at least 6 points guarantees us the Top 2. Even as few as 2 points and we are better than 50-50.

SS Win: 1.6%
EC Win: 30%
2-Seed: 43% ---> Top 2 = 73%
3-Seed: 27% (can't finish lower than this)

Points in last 2 matches & odds of making Top 2 in the East.
6 - 100%
4 - 94%
3 - 88%
2 - 66%
1 - 35%
0 - 28%

Link to the site.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

I can't believe our chances at winning the SS is as high as 1.6%

 

[JayH]

I can't believe our chances at winning the SS is as high as 1.6%

I will take those odds on the winning the SS side on a 20 dollar bill if anyone wants to lock it in? 20 to win 1250, come on, who's in?!?

 

[Gotham Gator]

First in the East is basically off the table. It is down to us and Toronto for 2nd place and the coveted bye through the first round.

We will get 2nd place in every scenario where either (1) we win or (2) they fail to win. So, the only way we end up in 3rd is if they win and we don't.

That said, Toronto is hosting Chicago and will probably have Giovinco back, so we have to assume they win. That means we have to win.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Dupe

 

[Gotham Gator]

Revisiting the chart comparing our results against Toronto and zooming into the final set of possible outcomes.

 

[Gotham Gator]

East
54 - NJR: @PHI
51 - NYC: CLB
50 - TOR: CHI
46 - DCU: @ORL
45 - MON: @NER
42 - PHI: NJR*
-------------------
39 - NER: MON**

* - PHI would pass MON on tiebreakers if they win and MON loses.
** - NER are basically eliminated, as they are -12 on goal differential against Philly.

 

[JayH]

http://www.nycfc.com/post/2016/10/17/diego-martinez-impresses-nycfc

Huh?!? (who needs math):

"The chances were there in the second half and the optimism remains strong heading into the regular season finale against Columbus Crew SC next Sunday at 4 p.m. at Yankee Stadium.

A win or a tie in that game clinches second place in the Eastern Conference for NYCFC, which means a bye into the Eastern Conference semifinals."

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

Pretty cool to look at the first few pages of this thread. mgarbowski had the playoff line at 47-51 and RB was last in the league.

 

[ktdNYCFC]

Pretty cool to look at the first few pages of this thread. mgarbowski had the playoff line at 47-51 and RB was last in the league.

RB really had an incredible turnaround. They haven't lost since like July. DC is on fire as well. If I'm any other team in the league I'm praying to face NYC in the post season. : (

 

[Gotham Gator]

What is fairly nice is that it looks like DCU and RBNJ would face off in the conference semifinals.

 

[Gotham Gator]

https://twitter.com/x/status/788011773899186176

 

[Viewfrom226]

https://twitter.com/x/status/788011773899186176

This is strangely mesmerizing. Other than the obvious conclusion that it is enjoyable to see where we are, I think I find myself most drawn how depressing it must be to be a Chicago Fire fan these days.

Every other team has the ups and downs you associate with an MLS season other than Columbus, but they made it to the cup final last year, so they cannot complain too much. Even times like NE and Orlando who are going to miss the playoffs, had stretches where life was good. But, boy, Chicago...what a painful year....again.

 

[LionNYC]

Something to also think about...

Should we reach the MLS Cup, we would host the game if we play any of the 3-6 seeds in the West (LA and either SKC, RSL, Portland, Seattle).

This only applies though if we win versus Columbus. Right now we have 51 points and so does LA, but we have a two game lead in terms of wins which is the first tiebreaker.

Just imagine an NYCFC vs. LA rematch for the MLS Cup. Gerrard finally gets his shot to win the league (if he's healthy) vs. Lampard (if he's healthy). Donovan vs. Pirlo. Gio vs. Villa. Keane vs. McNamara.

 

[Viewfrom226]

Something to also think about...

Should we reach the MLS Cup, we would host the game if we play any of the 3-6 seeds in the West (LA and either SKC, RSL, Portland, Seattle).

This only applies though if we win versus Columbus. Right now we have 51 points and so does LA, but we have a two game lead in terms of wins which is the first tiebreaker.

Just imagine an NYCFC vs. LA rematch for the MLS Cup. Gerrard finally gets his shot to win the league (if he's healthy) vs. Lampard (if he's healthy). Donovan vs. Pirlo. Gio vs. Villa. Keane vs. McNamara.

The drama when Stevie G slips on the crap grass that we have covering the infield which leads to the decisive goal....

 

[FootyLovin]

This is strangely mesmerizing.

Totally agree. And in addition to your observation on Chicago, frustrating to see how NJ never made 1st until the last 3 weeks when it counts.

Frustrating, but have to give it to them for rising at the right time.

 

[gbservis]

This is strangely mesmerizing. Other than the obvious conclusion that it is enjoyable to see where we are, I think I find myself most drawn how depressing it must be to be a Chicago Fire fan these days.

Every other team has the ups and downs you associate with an MLS season other than Columbus, but they made it to the cup final last year, so they cannot complain too much. Even times like NE and Orlando who are going to miss the playoffs, had stretches where life was good. But, boy, Chicago...what a painful year....again.

That's cool. It would be interesting to see it with the y-axis as points as well.