2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[JGarrettLieb]

Peeking at the standings today, there are still some interesting races for seeding in the East. First, we are in a battle with Atlanta for second seed, but don't sleep on Chicago either. They are one point behind the five stripes and have a more favorable schedule: hosting Philly next Sunday and traveling to Houston for decision Sunday.

The Red Fools sit in 6th and are 4 points behind Columbus, but if they can match the quality they had against Vancouver, they could catch Columbus.

I'd dearly like to see 3rd place Atlanta take on a 6th place NJRB.

On a more positive note, assuming that we manage to seal the first round bye, we have one less opportunity for the ref's to screw us over with yellow card accumulation and random yellow cards for nothing fouls.

Even better yellow cards reset for the playoffs, so Ring will be sitting on a glorious zero yellow cards for at least the first five seconds of his playoff career.

It is theoretically possible that, if Ring or Herrera get a yellow card in the upcoming match, the third time our preferred XI play a game will be in the playoffs. Which is genuinely ridiculous; on the other hand it means the team will likely be getting better as the playoffs continue.

 

[The Toe]

Dream scenario is:

TOR
NYC
CHI
ATL
NJ
COL

ATL takes care of NJ, Chicago holds suit against COL. We take on a Chicago team that we've had no issues with; Toronto has to play a tough ATL side that is a crap shoot. IF we're lucky enough to see Toronto lose, ATL will have to be completely gassed at that point, with a short turnaround to the ECF. Although this seems like a pipe dream, it's still entirely plausible things fall this way.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Dream scenario is:

TOR
NYC
CHI
ATL
NJ
COL

ATL takes care of NJ, Chicago holds suit against COL. We take on a Chicago team that we've had no issues with; Toronto has to play a tough ATL side that is a crap shoot. IF we're lucky enough to see Toronto lose, ATL will have to be completely gassed at that point, with a short turnaround to the ECF. Although this seems like a pipe dream, it's still entirely plausible things fall this way.

Totally agree. Atlanta and New Jersey strike me as the best possible options to upset Toronto in the conference semifinals, and I like our chances against Chicago.

 

[413Blue]

Dream scenario is:

TOR
NYC
CHI
ATL
NJ
COL

ATL takes care of NJ, Chicago holds suit against COL. We take on a Chicago team that we've had no issues with; Toronto has to play a tough ATL side that is a crap shoot. IF we're lucky enough to see Toronto lose, ATL will have to be completely gassed at that point, with a short turnaround to the ECF. Although this seems like a pipe dream, it's still entirely plausible things fall this way.

Hate to be nitpicky, but in MLS Columbus is CLB, Colorado is COL. You had me thinking for a second this could be one of those unbalanced MLS years when a team wins the other conference championship, like the year NJ were the western conference champions.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Dream scenario is:

TOR
NYC
CHI
ATL
NJ
COL

ATL takes care of NJ, Chicago holds suit against COL. We take on a Chicago team that we've had no issues with; Toronto has to play a tough ATL side that is a crap shoot. IF we're lucky enough to see Toronto lose, ATL will have to be completely gassed at that point, with a short turnaround to the ECF. Although this seems like a pipe dream, it's still entirely plausible things fall this way.

I think my actual dream scenario is almost this, but with NJ and CLB switched.

That way if Chicago were to lose their opening match, there's still a shot that we get CLB instead of ATL or NJ.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Remaining Magic Numbers for NYCFC against the entire league updated through last night's results. NYC cannot finish ahead of Toronto, and has already clinched over every other team not on this list.

East
Atlanta 4
Chicago 3
Columbus 1

West
Vancouver 2
SKC 2

Scratch off SKC

 

[Gotham Gator]

Red Bulls may hold back strategically against Atlanta on Sunday.

If the playoffs began today, the sixth-seeded Red Bulls would play at third-seeded Atlanta in the Knockout Round. New York know very well that they could see the Five Stripes in a couple of weeks, and are considering tweaking their approach on Sunday to not give too much away to Atlanta.

Of course, there’s also the need to build on last weekend’s win against Vancouver, the Red Bulls’ first victory since early-August.

“I do think that… we will have to be clever a little bit in terms of not showing all our cards, but at the same time I think for us it will be important to continue to establish playing well,” head coach Jesse Marsch said. “That’s a delicate balance and I don’t want to be cute. I want to make sure that whatever we do we’re going to the playoffs with momentum and feeling strong about what we’re doing. That will be more important than the cleverness of the matchup.”
​

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017...ightrope-potential-playoff-preview-vs-atlanta

 

[Seven]

Red Bulls may hold back strategically against Atlanta on Sunday.

If the playoffs began today, the sixth-seeded Red Bulls would play at third-seeded Atlanta in the Knockout Round. New York know very well that they could see the Five Stripes in a couple of weeks, and are considering tweaking their approach on Sunday to not give too much away to Atlanta.

Of course, there’s also the need to build on last weekend’s win against Vancouver, the Red Bulls’ first victory since early-August.

“I do think that… we will have to be clever a little bit in terms of not showing all our cards, but at the same time I think for us it will be important to continue to establish playing well,” head coach Jesse Marsch said. “That’s a delicate balance and I don’t want to be cute. I want to make sure that whatever we do we’re going to the playoffs with momentum and feeling strong about what we’re doing. That will be more important than the cleverness of the matchup.”
​

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017...ightrope-potential-playoff-preview-vs-atlanta

Marsch is probably just playing mind games. Atlanta will have plenty of game video from the season to watch anyway.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Red Bulls may hold back strategically against Atlanta on Sunday.

If the playoffs began today, the sixth-seeded Red Bulls would play at third-seeded Atlanta in the Knockout Round. New York know very well that they could see the Five Stripes in a couple of weeks, and are considering tweaking their approach on Sunday to not give too much away to Atlanta.

Of course, there’s also the need to build on last weekend’s win against Vancouver, the Red Bulls’ first victory since early-August.

“I do think that… we will have to be clever a little bit in terms of not showing all our cards, but at the same time I think for us it will be important to continue to establish playing well,” head coach Jesse Marsch said. “That’s a delicate balance and I don’t want to be cute. I want to make sure that whatever we do we’re going to the playoffs with momentum and feeling strong about what we’re doing. That will be more important than the cleverness of the matchup.”
​

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017...ightrope-potential-playoff-preview-vs-atlanta

I don't necessarily understand this. So then is Atlanta going to "hold their cards" as well? I know they will be without Almiron, so things will be a bit different, though they may not have him for the first playoff game anyways.

If I am NJ, I try and take it to Atlanta. If you fail, now you have something that you can note down to tinker with. Atlanta is clearly the more talented team, see what you can do and then figure out what you need to do better next time.

Atlanta is only 1 point up on Chicago and are still chasing us, they are going to want to win this one themselves.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I don't necessarily understand this. So then is Atlanta going to "hold their cards" as well? I know they will be without Almiron, so things will be a bit different, though they may not have him for the first playoff game anyways.

If I am NJ, I try and take it to Atlanta. If you fail, now you have something that you can note down to tinker with. Atlanta is clearly the more talented team, see what you can do and then figure out what you need to do better next time.

Atlanta is only 1 point up on Chicago and are still chasing us, they are going to want to win this one themselves.

Good points all. Atlanta clearly has a lot to play for. It's not clear what the Red Bulls have to play for.

The Red Bulls basically can't reach 4th place and a home game, and it is very unlikely they can get to 5th place as Columbus is 4 points ahead. Further, it's not really clear what 5th place gets them, other than an outside chance at avoiding Toronto if they pull the opening round upset.

I think they should and will focus on themselves - improving their quality of play and trying to get back to their best form for the Playoffs. I don't think they will hold back from trying to beat Atlanta, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are less focused on gameplanning for their opponent than they would otherwise be.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Good points all. Atlanta clearly has a lot to play for. It's not clear what the Red Bulls have to play for.

The Red Bulls basically can't reach 4th place and a home game, and it is very unlikely they can get to 5th place as Columbus is 4 points ahead. Further, it's not really clear what 5th place gets them, other than an outside chance at avoiding Toronto if they pull the opening round upset.

I think they should and will focus on themselves - improving their quality of play and trying to get back to their best form for the Playoffs. I don't think they will hold back from trying to beat Atlanta, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are less focused on gameplanning for their opponent than they would otherwise be.

My main point is that NJ is not as good of a team as Atlanta is. They are the ones that need to figure out how to beat Atlanta, and now they have a shot to see what works and what doesn't work so they can tweak what they do if they do end up seeing them in the playoffs.

Atlanta already has 32 games of tape on NJ from this year, so its not like what NJ prefers to do is a secret. Now, unless Marsch is already thinking of a specific gameplan for Atlanta that is much different than how they are playing now, then I would get the "holding the cards" idea. But otherwise, it just doesn't make sense to me.

And then of course, as noted above, it could just be Marsch coach-speaking.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

My main point is that NJ is not as good of a team as Atlanta is. They are the ones that need to figure out how to beat Atlanta, and now they have a shot to see what works and what doesn't work so they can tweak what they do if they do end up seeing them in the playoffs.

Atlanta already has 32 games of tape on NJ from this year, so its not like what NJ prefers to do is a secret. Now, unless Marsch is already thinking of a specific gameplan for Atlanta that is much different than how they are playing now, then I would get the "holding the cards" idea. But otherwise, it just doesn't make sense to me.

And then of course, as noted above, it could just be Marsch coach-speaking.

Yep. That twerp Marsch is just shooting off at the mouth, but he'll send his team out there to win. If he doesn't, he's a bigger idiot than I thought.

 

[mgarbowski]

Two months no home games
Two months not scoring 2 goals
Why do I bother?

 

[mgarbowski]

10 points in 8 games
Less important than the Nets
Don't ask me to care

 

[adam]

10 points in 8 games
Less important than the Nets
Don't ask me to care

I think all updates should be in haiku.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I am trying to figure out the scenarios for Sunday, but the ones I see in print all have things wrong. Let me know if this looks correct.

NYC Win - 2nd Place

NYC Tie
- CHI and ATL both tie or lose - 2nd Place
- One of CHI or ATL win - 3rd Place
- Both of CHI and ATL win - 4th Place

NYC Lose
- CHI loses and ATL tie or lose - 3rd Place
- Either CHI ties or wins or ATL wins - 4th Place
- Both CHI ties or wins and ATL wins - 5th Place

If we end up in 3rd place, we host the Red Bulls.

If we end up in 4th place, we host Columbus (if we tie) or Atlanta or Chicago (if we lose).

If we end up in 5th place, we travel to Columbus or Chicago (but not Atlanta).

Atlanta hosts Toronto
Chicago travels to Houston

 

[LionNYC]

The Opta table and how things could have played out over the 33 games thus far...
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/10/18/what-if-mls-table-if-every-shot-woodwork-had-been-goal

 

[The Toe]

https://twitter.com/x/status/921098403173556225

Really, we should be pulling for big wins from Chicago and ATL... and NYC, of Course.

 

[mgarbowski]

Regular Season Wrap Up. Not trying to be comprehensive. First, the last charts. I dropped 2015.

• The total points lines and PPG for 2015 and 16 look like they kiss around week 11 or 12 but they don't. 2017 took the lead in Game 5 and never fell back afterwards.
• On the rolling 5-Game PPG, 2016 was both better and worse in the first part of the season. 2017 did better in the middle third, and then had a bad end. Even with a seesaw chart, 2016 finished better than 2017.
• After 17 games halfway through the season the Goal Differential was +11. 538 predicted a final GD of +14. I thought they were nuts, and ridiculously undervaluing NYCFC. I expect many others did also. It ended at +13.
• The GD first hit +13 on June 29 after 18 games. Over the last 16 games the subset GD was 0. After slipping to +9 after the TFC 4-0 loss on July 29, the GD climbed to its high of+14 after the win over SKC on September 9 in Game 27. Over the last 10 games of the season, the GD was either +13 or +14 every week.
• After 17 games the team had 30 points which projects cleanly to 60, and 538 predicted only 55. It ended at 57.

I tend to divide the seasons into quarters, but a discussion in another thread led me to see how this year is best divided into thirds. As 34 only divides by 2 and 17, the units consist of 12 games, then 11 and 11. Here is a simple table and chart showing how Goals For per game, Goals Against per game, and PPG went in each third of the season:

• The odd thing here is that the team had its best results when it had the lowest average Goal Differential. Part of this is luck. In the first third NYC lost 4 games each by one goal, while its average winning margin in 6 games was better than 2. In the middle third NYC won 6 games by a total of 8 goals, while it lost only 3 games by an average differential of more than 2.
• The other story is that the GA spiked a whole lot in the middle. Then both it and Goals For went way down in the last third, as did PPG. NYC had a lot of missing players during that period, but there have also been comments that people noticed we were less aggressive. I have to wonder if Vieira was so concerned about the sharp increase in team defense that he allowed the offense to stagnate as part of what he considered a necessary corrective.

Finally, the Home Away Charts for the year. I do not know why 2 of them make it look like we played more Away games than at Home. It's a weird Excel thing I can't figure how to adjust.

• No surprises. We were a better Home team all year. In 2016 NYC was actually better Away for half the season. In 2017 NYC earned 5 more points at Home and 2 fewer on the Road compared to 2016.
• NYC earned 1.77 PPG in Primary Kit games (30 games). 1.33 PPG in the Hypnokit (3 Games), and 0.0 PPG in Eco Kit games (1). Sorry oceans, but that's a bad performance, especially as it was a Home game.
• In its 2 years the HypnoKit earned 1.75 PPG in 8 regular season games.
• NYC performed mildly better against the East (1.69 PPG) than West (1.64). Last year NYC earned 2.0 PPG against the West against only 1.42 against the East. NYC had the odd extra home game against the West and one less against the East which did not apply last year with 10 teams in each conference.

 

[Ulrich]

Regular Season Wrap Up. Not trying to be comprehensive. First, the last charts. I dropped 2015.
View attachment 7681

• The total points lines and PPG for 2015 and 16 look like they kiss around week 11 or 12 but they don't. 2017 took the lead in Game 5 and never fell back afterwards.
• On the rolling 5-Game PPG, 2016 was both better and worse in the first part of the season. 2017 did better in the middle third, and then had a bad end. Even with a seesaw chart, 2016 finished better than 2017.
• After 17 games halfway through the season the Goal Differential was +11. 538 predicted a final GD of +14. I thought they were nuts, and ridiculously undervaluing NYCFC. I expect many others did also. It ended at +13.
• The GD first hit +13 on June 29 after 18 games. Over the last 16 games the subset GD was 0. After slipping to +9 after the TFC 4-0 loss on July 29, the GD climbed to its high of+14 after the win over SKC on September 9 in Game 27. Over the last 10 games of the season, the GD was either +13 or +14 every week.
• After 17 games the team had 30 points which projects cleanly to 60, and 538 predicted only 55. It ended at 57.

I tend to divide the seasons into quarters, but a discussion in another thread led me to see how this year is best divided into thirds. As 34 only divides by 2 and 17, the units consist of 12 games, then 11 and 11. Here is a simple table and chart showing how Goals For per game, Goals Against per game, and PPG went in each third of the season:
View attachment 7683

• The odd thing here is that the team had its best results when it had the lowest average Goal Differential. Part of this is luck. In the first third NYC lost 4 games each by one goal, while its average winning margin in 6 games was better than 2. In the middle third NYC won 6 games by a total of 8 goals, while it lost only 3 games by an average differential of more than 2.
• The other story is that the GA spiked a whole lot in the middle. Then both it and Goals For went way down in the last third, as did PPG. NYC had a lot of missing players during that period, but there have also been comments that people noticed we were less aggressive. I have to wonder if Vieira was so concerned about the sharp increase in team defense that he allowed the offense to stagnate as part of what he considered a necessary corrective.

Finally, the Home Away Charts for the year. I do not know why 2 of them make it look like we played more Away games than at Home. It's a weird Excel thing I can't figure how to adjust.
View attachment 7684

• No surprises. We were a better Home team all year. In 2016 NYC was actually better Away for half the season. In 2017 NYC earned 5 more points at Home and 2 fewer on the Road compared to 2016.
• NYC earned 1.77 PPG in Primary Kit games (30 games). 1.33 PPG in the Hypnokit (3 Games), and 0.0 PPG in Eco Kit games (1). Sorry oceans, but that's a bad performance, especially as it was a Home game.
• In its 2 years the HypnoKit earned 1.75 PPG in 8 regular season games.
• NYC performed mildly better against the East (1.69 PPG) than West (1.64). Last year NYC earned 2.0 PPG against the West against only 1.42 against the East. NYC had the odd extra home game against the West and one less against the East which did not apply last year with 10 teams in each conference.

Villa was one successful PK away from making the hypnokit a 2pt/game kit.