2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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Atlanta drops to 4 seed, Chicago takes 3 seed...NYCFC plays Chicago and Toronto plays Atlanta, ATL takes out TOR and NYCFC defeats ATL to host MLS Cup...
Wishful thinking, I know.
No one scares me once we're full strength and 100% healthy.
Atlanta has 1 point lead on Chicago and major tiebreaker advantage
ATL plays at Red Bulls, Home to TFC
CHI plays Home to PHI, Away to HOU.
If ATL gets 6 points they finish ahead of CHI
If ATL gets 3 or 4 points they finish ahead unless Chicago wins both
If ATL gets 2 points they finish ahead unless Chicago wins one, other CHI result doesn't matter
If ATL gets 1 points CHI can tie twice or win at least one to finish ahead
Meanwhile, NYCFC's Magic Number for Atlanta is down to 4. A draw and a win means NYC gets second place no matter what ATL does.
We clinch the 2nd seed on 10/15 if:
- We win and ATL loses or draws at NJ
- We draw and ATL loses AND Chicago loses or draws at home to Philly
538 jumped us from 54% to 83% for second place and a bye.
PlayoffStatus.com went from 48% to 75%.
538 odds for NYC winning MLS cup went from 9% to 14%, which I guess reflects how important they think it is to avoid the knockout round. PlayoffStatus also has NYC at 14% but I don't know what it was before yesterday. In both cases NYC has the second best odds behind only Toronto. This shows, I think, how much better the stats show NYC is over any West team, because usually the second highest odds to win will come from the opposite conference than the favorite.
PlayoffStatus.com went from 48% to 75%.
538 odds for NYC winning MLS cup went from 9% to 14%, which I guess reflects how important they think it is to avoid the knockout round. PlayoffStatus also has NYC at 14% but I don't know what it was before yesterday. In both cases NYC has the second best odds behind only Toronto. This shows, I think, how much better the stats show NYC is over any West team, because usually the second highest odds to win will come from the opposite conference than the favorite.
Let's have some appreciation for Minnesota here.
They won 0 of their first 10 road games, before winning 3 of the next 5. Their first Away win was against Chicago. The most recent last night in Atlanta. If they had lost those as expected, not only is Atlanta tied with NYC, but Chicago is only 1 point behind. Their other road win was against Montreal, and so Minnesota now has the most interconference Away wins of any team in the West, yet they dutifully lost in NYC.
Skol Loons!
They won 0 of their first 10 road games, before winning 3 of the next 5. Their first Away win was against Chicago. The most recent last night in Atlanta. If they had lost those as expected, not only is Atlanta tied with NYC, but Chicago is only 1 point behind. Their other road win was against Montreal, and so Minnesota now has the most interconference Away wins of any team in the West, yet they dutifully lost in NYC.
Skol Loons!
combining those results above with a VAN loss at NJ also clinches NYC 2nd in line to host MLS Cup after Toronto.
Nice catch, though in the scenario where we draw, its not completely clinched, some of it being semantics. We would also need:
- Vancouver losing as noted - however, they could still technically catch us on GD. Though they are currently at +5 and we are +14 and them losing would drop them at least -1
- SKC would need to drop points. They have 2 upcoming games at Minnesota and at Houston before those Saturday games where we also play. So this could already be decided by them. Any loss or draw by SKC would clinch that.
Also (and I know 538 doesn't take this into account enough) we are tied for 5th in goals against in MLS, so the idea that NYCFC concedes a lot is no longer valid.
Let's not forget that NJ could be playing for their playoff lives vs. ATL, who will still be without some of their bigger names for the rest of the regular season (and some of the playoffs).
Based on what I've read, the absolute earliest Almiron may be back is the last game of the regular season. Sounds like Garza wouldn't be back until the conference finals at the earliest.
Wow. You have to admit that while we have had a ton of injuries this season, at least they came at a good time with most everyone coming back before the playoffs (at least so far...).
The way Atlanta plays, it is entirely conceivable that the first game Almiron plays in will also be his last for the year. Recovery from a hamstring injury is always dicey to begin with, and typically even when it begins to feel back to normal, it’s not. Their frenetic/chaotic pace is a case study of redlining the muscles by doing the soccer equivalent of the shuttle run- he’s gonna re-pull it and I’m gonna have to try hard not to spit out my scotch laughing.
And even if Almiron is back, say ATL is the 3 seed playing NY - they'd have to play 3 games in 7 days. No way Almiron plays 3 games in 7 days after being out for 3-4 weeks. If he does, probably at high risk of re-injury.
ATL w/o Almiron and Garza (injury) and would be a stretch to say Josef plays if he starts both qualifiers.
Remaining Magic Numbers for NYCFC against the entire league updated through last night's results. NYC cannot finish ahead of Toronto, and has already clinched over every other team not on this list.
East
Atlanta 4
Chicago 3
Columbus 1
West
Vancouver 2
SKC 2
East
Atlanta 4
Chicago 3
Columbus 1
West
Vancouver 2
SKC 2
Peeking at the standings today, there are still some interesting races for seeding in the East. First, we are in a battle with Atlanta for second seed, but don't sleep on Chicago either. They are one point behind the five stripes and have a more favorable schedule: hosting Philly next Sunday and traveling to Houston for decision Sunday.
The Red Fools sit in 6th and are 4 points behind Columbus, but if they can match the quality they had against Vancouver, they could catch Columbus.
The Red Fools sit in 6th and are 4 points behind Columbus, but if they can match the quality they had against Vancouver, they could catch Columbus.
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