2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[mgarbowski]

Toronto does not have an easy schedule to play out. A game against Chicago, RB, and three against Montreal (who always seems to get up for their Canadian neighbor), and games at LA and Atlanta. That's a serious gauntlet to run through. They're either coming out of it with the Supporters Shield, and are a pure juggernaut, or more likely we're going to see them come back to earth.

As long as we don't drop any stupid points, we should have a real shot to overtake them.

Well, I mentioned the Montreal thing either last week or the week before. I hope it plays out. But you could say the same about RB and us going into 2017. I'm just not going to count on it, especially with 2 of the Montreal games at home where TFC has yet to lose.

Now I'm going to argue with you then agree with you, on the very same topic. Because so so much depends on the coming week.

NYC is at 1.79 [Fixed from 1.96 - this point is even stronger than I realized] PPG so far. Raise it to 2.1 (6-1-3) and finish with 64 points. Finish 2.2 6-0-4 = 65 points. Finish 2.3 = 7-1-2 = 66 points. None of those involve dropping stupid points by my reckoning. All involve only 1 or 0 losses the rest of the way. The weakest is easy to imagine but anything better would be fantastic. Now let's say TFC goes 6-2-2. This requires that TFC to lose 2 times in the last 10 games, when they lost 3 times in the first 24. They end with 67 points and ahead of every scenario I just mentioned. If Toronto goes 6-3-1, which would double their loss total over just 29% of the schedule, they get 66 points, and we squeak ahead on Total Wins if we finish 7-1-2. I'm not saying we won't catch them, but it gets late early in MLS (which might be my next signature), and predicting it is the sort of thing you only do so when it the rare time happens you can say "I told you so, " and that's not what I'm trying to do here.
I really, really hope TFC is due for a stumble, of the sort it has not had all season. Maybe they lose a couple of times at home despite (or sort of because) not having done so all year. Because that sort of stumble is what it takes to catch them, or NYC needs to hit about 2.4 PPG over the last 10 or better.

Then again, if Toronto loses at Chicago on Saturday and NYC beats the Revs, it's just a 1-point lead with 9 games to go. Suddenly that looks very manageable no matter how you slice it, though TFC will have an advantage with 5H/4A to NYC's 4H/5A. Chicago has also not lost at home this season, but has a midweek game in Montreal. That game and TFC's last game of the season in Atlanta are arguably their toughest remaining (they play RB in Toronto). If Toronto manages a win in Chicago, it will be very, very tough to catch them. If not (and NYC does its business against the Revs), we have a real race. A draw in Chicago helps NYC on both sides, but I think that 1 point for Toronto could be quite meaningful given their H/A advantage and home record to date.

 

[Ulrich]

Well, I mentioned the Montreal thing either last week or the week before. I hope it plays out. But you could say the same about RB and us going into 2017. I'm just not going to count on it, especially with 2 of the Montreal games at home where TFC has yet to lose.

Now I'm going to argue with you then agree with you, on the very same topic. Because so so much depends on the coming week.

NYC is at 1.96 PPG so far. Raise it to 2.1 (6-1-3) and finish with 64 points. Finish 2.2 6-0-4 = 65 points. Finish 2.3 = 7-1-2 = 66 points. None of those involve dropping stupid points by my reckoning. All involve only 1 or 0 losses the rest of the way. The weakest is easy to imagine but anything better would be fantastic. Now let's say TFC goes 6-2-2. This requires that TFC to lose 2 times in the last 10 games, when they lost 3 times in the first 24. They end with 67 points and ahead of every scenario I just mentioned. If Toronto goes 6-3-1, which would double their loss total over just 29% of the schedule, they get 66 points, and we squeak ahead on Total Wins if we finish 7-1-2. I'm not saying we won't catch them, but it gets late early in MLS (which might be my next signature), and predicting it is the sort of thing you only do so when it the rare time happens you can say "I told you so, " and that's not what I'm trying to do here.
I really, really hope TFC is due for a stumble, of the sort it has not had all season. Maybe they lose a couple of times at home despite (or sort of because) not having done so all year. Because that sort of stumble is what it takes to catch them, or NYC needs to hit about 2.4 PPG over the last 10 or better.

Then again, if Toronto loses at Chicago on Saturday and NYC beats the Revs, it's just a 1-point lead with 9 games to go. Suddenly that looks very manageable no matter how you slice it, though TFC will have an advantage with 5H/4A to NYC's 4H/5A. Chicago has also not lost at home this season, but has a midweek game in Montreal. That game and TFC's last game of the season in Atlanta are arguably their toughest remaining (they play RB in Toronto). If Toronto manages a win in Chicago, it will be very, very tough to catch them. If not, we have a real race. A draw helps NYC on both sides, but I think that 1 point for Toronto could be quite meaningful given their H/A advantage and home record to date.

Isn't it about time for Giovinco to get his yearly injury? There's gotta be a team out there that goes the brute force route with him in a game (like RJ has done) and just punish him every time he touches the ball to the point he injures himself straining to ride the challenges.

 

[mgarbowski]

Isn't it about time for Giovinco to get his yearly injury? There's gotta be a team out there that goes the brute force route with him in a game (like RJ has done) and just punish him every time he touches the ball to the point he injures himself straining to ride the challenges.

He sat out 5 games this year and Toronto went 4-0-1.

 

[Ulrich]

He sat out 5 games this year and Toronto went 4-0-1.

I'll try double or nothing.

 

[Seven]

I'll try double or nothing.

Don't tempt Karma. Toronto would handle a Giovinco injury way better then NYCFC would handle a Villa injury

 

[Ulrich]

Don't tempt Karma. Toronto would handle a Giovinco injury way better then NYCFC would handle a Villa injury

Perhaps, but I'd much rather Toronto be without Gio for an extended time than to have him with options.

No doubt Toronto is an amazing team this year, but I just cannot believe their fortunate results will continue until the end of the season. They're also going to lose Bradley and Altidore to MNT duty, and while there isn't a club/country overlap, I can't imagine Arena won't call them in a week in advance (thus missing two matches); also add in the toll the MNT games could take on their fitness in do/die matches. Same thing happens again in October. Two of their vital cogs could be logging extra intense games in the stretch run, and I'll take it. So to sum it up, Toronto is going to have to really depend on their bench depth over these last games.

My fear though, is that we're going to lose SJ in those same periods, and he's likely to not even get to play which would be the twisted irony.

 

[canchon]

NYCFC is four points behind Toronto.

Take away the last minute equalizers at home against NER and TOR (RJ Allen losing his mind there in the 90th minute still burns) and NYCFC is tied for the shield right now.

Ugh. Given where they are, focus should be to finish second and above the West leader in the overall standings - meaning if NYCFC gets to MLS Cup, it would be at Yankee Stadium. Either take on Toronto in the semifinals or home somebody takes them out beforehand.

 

[mgarbowski]

Given where they are, focus should be to finish second and above the West leader in the overall standings - meaning if NYCFC gets to MLS Cup, it would be at Yankee Stadium. Either take on Toronto in the semifinals or home somebody takes them out beforehand.

The good news on this front is that only Dallas is within hailing distance. Everyone else is 6 points back and even on games played, or worse. Dallas is 6 points back with 2 in hand, so they have to play one point better over 10 games, plus win both of their extra games.

 

[413Blue]

NYCFC is four points behind Toronto.

Take away the last minute equalizers at home against NER and TOR (RJ Allen losing his mind there in the 90th minute still burns) and NYCFC is tied for the shield right now.
.

We would be up, as Toronto would have lost a point while we gained four. Really puts into perspective how important things like that are. You can't make up for lost points

 

[Sabo]

If you haven't checked out Nate Silver in a while its worthwhile. They changed their format a bit and now show SPI. RB are rated surprisingly high -- interesting to see how much lower Dallas, SKC and Houston are rated than NYCFC, Chicago and RB. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

[Gotham Gator]

I love 538, but these rankings are bullshit. There is no way MLS is half as good as the Ukrainian league or that Ligue 1 and Russia are effectively the same.

I see that the ratings now use Transfermarkt to establish team value, but Transfermarkt is about as close to reality as pulling numbers out of a hat.

 

[mgarbowski]

One-quarter of the season is left. NYC is 4 points back of league-leading Toronto, and 5 ahead of third-place Chicago.

• Many teams behind Chicago have games in hand, and even Chicago has a schedule advantage of one extra home game. So I checked to see what would happen if every team within generous reach of NYC took full advantage of any schedule advantages it has. I checked West teams as well for potential home field in a Cup final match. This exercise ignores strength of schedule and just looks at extra games or extra home games.
  • Montreal: Game in hand, 10 points back, H2H in Montreal. The Impact can beat us at home, and win their extra game, and still will be 4 points behind us.
  • Dallas FC: 2 in hand, 11 points back. They can win both extra games and still will be 5 points trailing.
  • Red Bulls: 1 in hand, 8 points back, H2H in NJ: They can beat us at home, and win their extra game, and still will be 2 points behind us.
  • Atlanta: 3 in hand, 11 points back, 8H 4A remaining. They can win all 3 extra games and still will be 2 points back. Downside for NYC: this still leaves them with a favorable 5H 4A in remaining 9 games. If on top of winning all their extra games they also win an extra home game, and all else being equal, they jump ahead of us. That's a lot going right for them, however.
  • Seattle: 6 points back, 5H 4A: taking advantage of the modestly better H/A schedule by winning the additional home game leaves them 3 points back. Also, even if they make up 6-point deficit by winning 2 extra games NYC would have first tiebreaker with one more Win.
  • SKC: 6 points back, 4H 5A: No clear schedule advantage. Even if they make up 6-point deficit by winning 2 extra games NYC would have first tiebreaker with two more Wins.
  • Chicago: 5 points back, 5H 4A. They can win their extra home game and be 2 behind.

The summary is that only Atlanta has enough extra games and home games baked into their schedule to let them jump over NYC just by seizing those advantages.

• A 3-game win streak and 4 of 5 has this table looking a bit better to reach the top spots. Winning 5 more games is very doable and that all leads to 60+ points. Even winning 4 more gets to 60 with a couple of draws.

Also, I ran the number adding NYC's Home PPG times 4 games + the Away PPG times 5 and it comes to 62 points.

• NYCFC is 8 points ahead of 2016 through 25 games. Last year the club reached 46 points at games 30-31, jumping from 45 points to 48 with only 3 games to go.

A final note on the graphs. The PPG line for 2016 stabilized around game 19. After that it just squiggled up and down without moving much. Part of that is just that it gets harder to move the needle the deeper you go into the season, but NYC last year also did not have a winning or winless streak longer than 2 games after that point. You can see this year the line has diverged more later based on the current 3 straight wins and 4 of 5.

 

[SoupInNYC]

One-quarter of the season is left. NYC is 4 points back of league-leading Toronto, and 5 ahead of third-place Chicago.

• Many teams behind Chicago have games in hand, and even Chicago has a schedule advantage of on extra home game. So I checked to see what would happen if every team within generous reach of NYC took full advantage of any schedule advantages it has. I checked West teams as well for potential home field in a Cup final match. This exercise ignores strength of schedule and just looks at extra games or extra home games.
  • Montreal: Game in hand, 10 points back, H2H in Montreal. The Impact can beat us at home, and win their extra game, and still will be 4 points behind us.
  • Dallas FC: 2 in hand, 11 points back. They can win both extra games and still will be 5 points trailing.
  • Red Bulls: 1 in hand, 8 points back, H2H in NJ: They can beat us at home, and win their extra game, and still will be 2 points behind us.
  • Atlanta: 3 in hand, 11 points back, 8H 4A remaining. They can win all 3 extra games and still will be 2 points back. Downside for NYC: this still leaves them with a favorable 5H 4A in remaining 9 games. If on top of winning all their extra games they also win an extra home game,and all else being equal, they jump ahead of us. That's a lot going right for them, however.
  • Seattle: 6 points back, 5H 4A: taking advantage of the modestly better H/A schedule by winning the additional home game leaves them 3 points back. Also, even if they make up 6-point deficit by winning 2 extra games NYC would have first tiebreaker with one more Win.
  • SKC: 6 points back, 4H 5A: No clear schedule advantage. Even if they make up 6-point deficit by winning 2 extra games NYC would have first tiebreaker with two more Wins.
  • Chicago: 5 points back, 5H 4A. They can win their extra home game and be 2 behind.

The summary is that only Atlanta has enough extra games and home games baked into their schedule to let them jump over NYC just by seizing those advantages.

One quick note on this is that we do have the H2H against SKC at Yankee Stadium coming up.

 

[mgarbowski]

One quick note on this is that we do have the H2H against SKC at Yankee Stadium coming up.

Good catch. I had noticed that and then kind of forgot. I meant to note that it's an opportunity for them but not really an advantage.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Good catch. I had noticed that and then kind of forgot. I meant to note that it's an opportunity for them but not really an advantage.

Yup, they aren't a team that worry me about catching up to us. I just saw you called it out for the other teams, so wanted to provide a reminder

 

[Ulrich]

One quick note on this is that we do have the H2H against SKC at Yankee Stadium coming up.

I really want to see Lewis abuse Zuzi on the dribble in the corner. Vermes should get his own chant: 68 yards

 

[canchon]

I really want to see Lewis abuse Zuzi on the dribble in the corner. Vanney should get his own chant: 68 yards

Vermes? I remember he bitched and whined about the field after they scored on a long throw-in, specifically using the advantage of that field. Come on.

 

[Ulrich]

Vermes? I remember he bitched and whined about the field after they scored on a long throw-in, specifically using the advantage of that field. Come on.

Right. Right. Meant him and was thrown by both having V names. Thanks! Edited the idiocy.

 

[LionNYC]

Atlanta has one of the most bonkers schedule left in MLS...

Double Game Week this week at DC (Wednesday) and then at Philadelphia (Saturtday).

Then the International Break

Then, the crazy part . 8 games over the span of 23 days with the first six at home. Starting September 10, Sunday they play that Sunday then Wednesday, Saturday, Wednesday, Sunday, Wednesday, Saturday (away in NE), Tuesday. That is nuts. They surely will drop points during the course of that crazy stretch.

 

[Seven]

Atlanta has one of the most bonkers schedule left in MLS...

Double Game Week this week at DC (Wednesday) and then at Philadelphia (Saturtday).

Then the International Break

Then, the crazy part . 8 games over the span of 23 days with the first six at home. Starting September 10, Sunday they play that Sunday then Wednesday, Saturday, Wednesday, Sunday, Wednesday, Saturday (away in NE), Tuesday. That is nuts. They surely will drop points during the course of that crazy stretch.

Will be interesting to see how they play that. How much squad rotation do they do when they are going to be needing points? But I can't imagine all their players will be able to handle all those minutes