2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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They're a machine. But if the Ref would've called the Toronto player for a foul throw and not award a free kick every time a Toronto player is touched, then it would've been a different game.Ulrich are you ready to admit that toronto is not going to falter and that it's not simply a question of relying on Montreal to play them tough?
Looks like the red line will be super high in the east this year. 6th place teams are on pace for 51 points, with Montreal on pace to finish 7th with just under 49 points.
Last season Philly finished 6th by tiebreaker with NE at just 42 points. Big difference this season. I had thought that we were basically in already with 47 right now, but that's not on pace to do it. It could end up being enough, as the pace can keep changing, but I found this interesting. The West looks to be a bit cheaper to get into, 48/46ish pace.
Last season Philly finished 6th by tiebreaker with NE at just 42 points. Big difference this season. I had thought that we were basically in already with 47 right now, but that's not on pace to do it. It could end up being enough, as the pace can keep changing, but I found this interesting. The West looks to be a bit cheaper to get into, 48/46ish pace.
Thanks to DC's 3 game winning streak, we haven't even clinched finishing above last place yet. Our magic number with DC is 3, so we can accomplish that at least with just one win. The magic number is 6 for Philly, 9 for Orlando and 10 for New England. Beyond them, we need to also clinch against one of Columbus, Montreal and Atlanta with magic numbers of 14, 17, and 20 respectively. Realistically we are looking at late September.
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We've all been noting that Toronto had to play a red hot Montreal team 3 times and this could cause the leaders to drop points. It now looks like the right analysis was that red hot Montreal has to play Toronto 3 times, which could kill the Impact's playoff run.
This was a pretty good week for NYC, except for the hopes of winning Supporters’ Shield. Many of the teams chasing NYC played twice, and none won twice, which means they are wasting games. At this point time and the passing of games is an ally. Drawing at RBA was a pretty good result when you consider that all the best scenarios going into this week required that NYC rarely lose and draw 2-3 times. With this game behind us, the toughest games should be Away at Chicago and Montreal.
The big wild card now is the pair of unusual Home games in September. SKC is up next with the Blues holding an extremely depleted roster, and then hosting Houston in East Hartford. NYC has 3 of the next 4 at home, and it needs to build points because after that comes 3 straight Away. Despite being a strong Away team the difference in PPG is a full point: 2.308 at Home against 1.308 Away.
One other odd schedule note: there are only 24 interconference matchups left in MLS this year, NYC figures in 17% of them, and they are the next 4 games in a row.
Montreal’s failure to beat Toronto in Montreal pretty much kills any remaining rational hope for a Supporters' Shield this year. NYCFC can very well join the short list of teams to get 60 or more points and not win. In fact it is unlikely even to be close. NYC is 9 points back, and has 8 games left. Toronto has 7 left. If NYC wins its extra game, it still has to make up another 6 points on Toronto just to tie. Toronto, however, has lost only 3 times all year. It is hard to see them losing 3 times in their last 7. But let’s try to develop a plausible (or at least possible) if unlikely scenario. Toronto’s worst stretch of 7 games this year was from June 3 to July 22 when they went 3-2-2 for 11 points. Let’s assume they do slightly worse and finish 3-3-1 for 10 points in their last 7. That gives them 66. The Blues must go 6-1-1 to match that, finish with 66 points, and would have 20 wins to 19 for Toronto which wins the first tiebreaker. So that’s it. Toronto has to lose as many times in 7 games as it has in 27 to date and NYC has to win 6 of 8, something it managed to do once in its history, last season. In that stretch the Blue RObber Barons lost the 2 games they did not win so going 6-1-1 has never been done by NYC. Together, this means that Toronto has to have its worst 7 games of the season, and NYC has to have its best 8 games ever. It can happen, but at this point NYCFC is playing for second place in the league, realistically.
Back when Toronto and Chicago were tied for 1st, I wrote that "I don't think either Toronto or Chicago will finish with 68 points. If they do NYC is not catching them. I do think it will take more than 60 points to win the East (and therefore almost certainly also win the SS). It might even take more than 60 points to finish second.” It seems to have been a mistake to expect Toronto to falter, but but Chicago might not even make 60.
Before playing at Yankee Stadium, seven games ago, Chicago was tied with Toronto for first, piling up 2.0 PPG, and riding an 11-game unbeaten streak. Since then, including the 2-1 loss against NYC, the Fire is reeling. They have only 1 win in 8 games including 4 straight losses now. Two games ago when their streak was 4 losses in 5 I hesitated to pronounce them in freefall. The 4 losses were all away, and although they managed 2 wins and 3 draws Away during the 11 game unbeaten streak, they had the worst Away record among league leaders even before hey stumbled. Prior to the unbeaten streak their Away record was 0-3-2. So their failure to win any Away of 4 games was not surprising, and that they were all losses only slightly unusual. As I explained at the time I always expect a team to play to its record, and winning only 1 game in a stretch of 1H/4A was not out of line with Chicago’s record.
Two games later, Chicago's fall is clear. You can maybe excuse losing to Toronto at home. TFC is on fire, losing only twice in the last 21 games. But now the Fire have lost to Minnesota in Chicago, handing the Loons their first ever road win and putting Minnesota’s PPG up to 1.0, and we have undeniable evidence that they are not as good as the 2.0 PPG made them seem through 19 games.
The best case you can make now for a Chicago revival is their streakiness.They started at 1.38 PPG through 8 games, then earned 2.46 through the next 11, and sit at 0.43 in the last 7. Schweinstager was a catalyst but not enough to explain singlehandedly the switch that marked the break between their first 2 streaks, and another inexplicable change of fortune could be coming. We could be shocked by another switch to winning again, or a least doing better than losing nearly every game. Their remaining schedule is a rough balance of Home and Away and Easy/Tough opponents. Nikolic had chances against Minnesota before Minnesota scored and just couldn’t finish. A return to form from him could right their course, even if they don’t reach their previous level. Without that and they probably limp into the playoffs.
That in mind, here’s an update on the teams chasing NYC.
* Besides all but settling the race for first place, Montreal’s failure to beat Toronto in Montreal also puts the Impact in a tough spot to make the playoffs. They are tied with Atlanta but AU has one extra game to play, and all those home games. Montreal gets to play Toronto twice more in Toronto.Montreal has 3 games in hand on Columbus but is 6 points behind.
The big wild card now is the pair of unusual Home games in September. SKC is up next with the Blues holding an extremely depleted roster, and then hosting Houston in East Hartford. NYC has 3 of the next 4 at home, and it needs to build points because after that comes 3 straight Away. Despite being a strong Away team the difference in PPG is a full point: 2.308 at Home against 1.308 Away.
One other odd schedule note: there are only 24 interconference matchups left in MLS this year, NYC figures in 17% of them, and they are the next 4 games in a row.
Montreal’s failure to beat Toronto in Montreal pretty much kills any remaining rational hope for a Supporters' Shield this year. NYCFC can very well join the short list of teams to get 60 or more points and not win. In fact it is unlikely even to be close. NYC is 9 points back, and has 8 games left. Toronto has 7 left. If NYC wins its extra game, it still has to make up another 6 points on Toronto just to tie. Toronto, however, has lost only 3 times all year. It is hard to see them losing 3 times in their last 7. But let’s try to develop a plausible (or at least possible) if unlikely scenario. Toronto’s worst stretch of 7 games this year was from June 3 to July 22 when they went 3-2-2 for 11 points. Let’s assume they do slightly worse and finish 3-3-1 for 10 points in their last 7. That gives them 66. The Blues must go 6-1-1 to match that, finish with 66 points, and would have 20 wins to 19 for Toronto which wins the first tiebreaker. So that’s it. Toronto has to lose as many times in 7 games as it has in 27 to date and NYC has to win 6 of 8, something it managed to do once in its history, last season. In that stretch the Blue RObber Barons lost the 2 games they did not win so going 6-1-1 has never been done by NYC. Together, this means that Toronto has to have its worst 7 games of the season, and NYC has to have its best 8 games ever. It can happen, but at this point NYCFC is playing for second place in the league, realistically.
Back when Toronto and Chicago were tied for 1st, I wrote that "I don't think either Toronto or Chicago will finish with 68 points. If they do NYC is not catching them. I do think it will take more than 60 points to win the East (and therefore almost certainly also win the SS). It might even take more than 60 points to finish second.” It seems to have been a mistake to expect Toronto to falter, but but Chicago might not even make 60.
Before playing at Yankee Stadium, seven games ago, Chicago was tied with Toronto for first, piling up 2.0 PPG, and riding an 11-game unbeaten streak. Since then, including the 2-1 loss against NYC, the Fire is reeling. They have only 1 win in 8 games including 4 straight losses now. Two games ago when their streak was 4 losses in 5 I hesitated to pronounce them in freefall. The 4 losses were all away, and although they managed 2 wins and 3 draws Away during the 11 game unbeaten streak, they had the worst Away record among league leaders even before hey stumbled. Prior to the unbeaten streak their Away record was 0-3-2. So their failure to win any Away of 4 games was not surprising, and that they were all losses only slightly unusual. As I explained at the time I always expect a team to play to its record, and winning only 1 game in a stretch of 1H/4A was not out of line with Chicago’s record.
Two games later, Chicago's fall is clear. You can maybe excuse losing to Toronto at home. TFC is on fire, losing only twice in the last 21 games. But now the Fire have lost to Minnesota in Chicago, handing the Loons their first ever road win and putting Minnesota’s PPG up to 1.0, and we have undeniable evidence that they are not as good as the 2.0 PPG made them seem through 19 games.
The best case you can make now for a Chicago revival is their streakiness.They started at 1.38 PPG through 8 games, then earned 2.46 through the next 11, and sit at 0.43 in the last 7. Schweinstager was a catalyst but not enough to explain singlehandedly the switch that marked the break between their first 2 streaks, and another inexplicable change of fortune could be coming. We could be shocked by another switch to winning again, or a least doing better than losing nearly every game. Their remaining schedule is a rough balance of Home and Away and Easy/Tough opponents. Nikolic had chances against Minnesota before Minnesota scored and just couldn’t finish. A return to form from him could right their course, even if they don’t reach their previous level. Without that and they probably limp into the playoffs.
That in mind, here’s an update on the teams chasing NYC.
- Montreal: Game in hand, 11 points back, H2H in Montreal. The Impact can beat us at home, and win their extra game, and still will be 5 points behind us.
- Dallas FC: 1 in hand, 11 points back. They can the extra game and still will be 8 points trailing.
- Red Bulls: 1 in hand, 8 points back: If they win their extra game, which is hardly a given as it is Away, they still will be 5 points behind us.
- Atlanta: 2 in hand, 11 points back, 8H 2A remaining. They can win both extra games and still will be 5 points back. Downside for NYC: this still leaves them with a favorable 6H 2A in remaining 8 games. If on top of winning all their extra games they also win two extra home game, and all else being equal, they jump ahead of us. That's a lot going right for them, however.
- Seattle: 5 points back, One fewer game remaining: 4H 3A. Very tough path to catch NYC.
- SKC: 7 points back, Game in hand, 4H 5A: If they win the extra game (at home) they are still 4 back. Also substantially behind on first tie-breaker (Wins).
- Chicago: 6 points back, 4H 4A. No structural schedule advantage. To overtake NYC they have to simply outplayed NYC by 6+ points. If they tie on points, they probably make up the win deficit and have a shot at the GD, where they currently sit 2 back, but if they make up the 6 points that likely comes with the points.
- five points back with a game in deficit (Seattle) or 2 games in deficit (Columbus)
- six back and even on games (Chicago) or two games in deficit (Portland)
- seven to nine back and a game in hand (SKC, RB, and Vancouver)
- 11 back and 2 games in hand (Atlanta)
- Chicago has to go 5-1-2, 2.22 PPG
- SKC has to go 5-1-3, 2.00 PPG
- RB has to go 6-2-1, 2.11 PPG
- Seattle has to go 5-1-1, 2.29 PPG
- Vancouver has to go 6-1-2, 2.22 PPG
- Atlanta has to go 6-0-4 or 7-2-1, 2.20 PPG
- Columbus has to go 5-0-1, 2.67 PPG
* Besides all but settling the race for first place, Montreal’s failure to beat Toronto in Montreal also puts the Impact in a tough spot to make the playoffs. They are tied with Atlanta but AU has one extra game to play, and all those home games. Montreal gets to play Toronto twice more in Toronto.Montreal has 3 games in hand on Columbus but is 6 points behind.
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Don't want to jinx anything. But might need to adjust that total points graph to go above 60.
Abbreviated update. NYCFC had no action this week. There were only 4 games in all of MLS but 2 of them affect the race for second place.
Chicago ended its losing streak beating the Impact in Montreal. That's actually quite big as Chicago was a poor Away team even while it was sitting on top of the league. Chicago was helped by a VAR red card in minute 52 against the Impact, and the Fire scored 7 minutes later. Hard to tell then if this is a return to form (some of their defenders were back as well) or a dead cat bounce. But now Chicago is just 3 points back from NYCFC. The Blues have a game in hand, which they will play with a depleted roster in a few days. IF NYCFC fails to win that then the cushion on Chicago is just one game.
The Red Bulls went to Dallas, met another struggling team, and also benefited from an opponent red card, but only gained one point while using up their game in hand. They now sit 7 points back with 8 games left for both teams. Both have 4 home and 4 away. NYC has 2 more wins so if RB makes up the 7 points there is a good chance they end up tied on wins. NYC currently ahead by 8 on Goal Differential, which is possibly enough to hold up if RB makes up the points. But unless NYC slips considerably, most likely due to multiple injuries already in place, the red team has a stiff climb and did themselves no favors not taking advantage of the opportunity last night.
Chicago ended its losing streak beating the Impact in Montreal. That's actually quite big as Chicago was a poor Away team even while it was sitting on top of the league. Chicago was helped by a VAR red card in minute 52 against the Impact, and the Fire scored 7 minutes later. Hard to tell then if this is a return to form (some of their defenders were back as well) or a dead cat bounce. But now Chicago is just 3 points back from NYCFC. The Blues have a game in hand, which they will play with a depleted roster in a few days. IF NYCFC fails to win that then the cushion on Chicago is just one game.
The Red Bulls went to Dallas, met another struggling team, and also benefited from an opponent red card, but only gained one point while using up their game in hand. They now sit 7 points back with 8 games left for both teams. Both have 4 home and 4 away. NYC has 2 more wins so if RB makes up the 7 points there is a good chance they end up tied on wins. NYC currently ahead by 8 on Goal Differential, which is possibly enough to hold up if RB makes up the points. But unless NYC slips considerably, most likely due to multiple injuries already in place, the red team has a stiff climb and did themselves no favors not taking advantage of the opportunity last night.
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Isn't turnover for football much easier though? We played the Galaxy at 8pm, and StubHub Center was ready for the Chargers preseason game early the next day.
So instead of playing on a baseball field we'll just play on a football field that day. That works.
Well, they wouldn't need to do anything with the field in term of laying grass down, however, a football team really tears up grass so playing the day after would not be fun.
They would have to paint the soccer lines if the football field is north to south at 0 degrees, the soccer lines are at 20 degrees towards left field so that would look weird if they don't get it right.
Mid-week Post-SKC mini-update. With 7 games to go for each team, the Walkabouts are 6 points behind Toronto and 6 ahead of Chicago. I'm not going to play what-ifs with Toronto. If they collapse, the Transients can go for it, but until then my focus is on what it takes to stay in second place. Simply put, the lead is substantial at this point. If Chicago has an amazing finish and does not lose again, going 5-0-2, they get 61 points. The Itinerants can beat that with just 4-3-0, which is roughly their current pace, just ever-so-slightly below.
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Can't comment on the analysis but you seem to be at the top of your team name game. Excellent work. A++++, would read again.
SportsClubStats now has NYCFC at 100.0% chance to make playoffs (most likely something like 99.9999% - hasn't clinched yet) and 72% chance to get the second seed.
Big win on Wednesday night. NYCFC needs to bank points as they have a road-heavy schedule towards the end. After Saturday the next game at Yankee Stadium is October 22nd.
Big win on Wednesday night. NYCFC needs to bank points as they have a road-heavy schedule towards the end. After Saturday the next game at Yankee Stadium is October 22nd.
True. The Highbridge Globetrotters have only clinched 10th place. Last night's win made it impossible for DC United to catch them. The magic number for Orlando and Philadelphia is 3 so 8th Place can be assured this weekend.
Here are some interesting facts on MLS point records in the age since the penalty shootout was retired (from 2000 onwards).
- Most points is 67 by Los Angeles in 2011 (34 games)
- Most points by a 2nd place team in the shield is 63 by Seattle in 2011 and Sporting KC in 2012
- Only 10 teams have reached 60 points in a season
- Most PPG is 2.04 by the Miami Fusion in 2001 (26 games), followed by San Jose with 2.00 in 2005 (32 games)
- Those would translate into 69.4 points and 68.0 points, respectively, in a 34 game season
- Of the 17 Supporters Shield winners over this time, only 7 had more than the 1.85 PPG we have this season.
Actually, you have to be an approved poster to impact valuation. I have heard it is mostly agents and staffers, so while some are certainly off, it is rooted in educated judgement if nothing else.
Hey, this sounds familiar. I was all about their schedule beating the shit out of them. By condensing them all, they mitigate homefield advantage to some degree. Also, there's a good place here for you to compare this to marathon training.
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