Wanted to do a little thought experiment ahead of the first game of the season. There's a pretty clear divide between those who think we're doomed this season, and those who think we're set up for success, with good arguments for both. So I figured I'd write up a hyper-pessimistic and hyper-optimistic season preview, and see where people stand. I tried to avoid getting too hysterical with either approach, and obviously the reality is somewhere in the middle. But before we get to that milestone of having Actual Matches to inform our opinions, I wanted to work out why it's been such a weirdly divided offseason. Plus, it was a Sunday and I was bored. One was definitely easier to write than the other, which made me question my own outlook for the year. I'll post part two later, but first up here is:
THE PESSIMIST'S NYCFC 2019 PREVIEW
- NYCFC goes into the season with the spine of its team destroyed, and neither David Villa or Yangel Herrera being replaced with anyone of proven quality. Villa's departure leaves a leadership vacuum at what is now an extremely young squad. With just one player over 30 on the roster, and several rookies coming into their first full professional season, it's difficult to see where players will look to during rocky stretches. For the moment, the job falls by default to Alex Ring, who has never captained before and admitted to being surprised at getting the armband. At this point, Ring is the closest thing to the face of the franchise, raising the question of whether NYCFC is a team of fading relevance, something which could quickly get ugly if last year's late-season form continues into 2019.
- Dome Torrent is stubbornly committed to a style that failed to yield results last season. Having lost the support of vast swathes of the team's fans, Torrent has very little political capital to work with – without a fast start, he may spend the year snapping at reporters like he did in Atlanta. The common refrain was that Torrent would fare better after bringing in players that better suited his style, but with squad turnover low, NYCFC are stuck with the same players working with the same system. It remains to be seen whether, after five months of Torrent's coaching failing to translate in 2018, another couple of months of preseason will do the job. And again – he does not have the luxury of time.
- While the back line may seem settled, there are big question marks at fullback, with neither left back making a convincing case for the starting job, and a 16 year-old providing the only cover for Anton Tinnerholm. Meanwhile with only three center backs on the roster, the team is one injury away from having zero depth – redeploying a starting LB or CM appears to be the only backup plan. In midfield, a backlog of young central midfielders will compete for starting jobs, with no clear candidate emerging in preseason for the third spot alongside Ring and Maxi Moralez, and no clearly defined roles being set for any of them. If none of Keaton Parks, Juan Pablo Torres or Tony Rocha prove to be a difference-maker, then Torrent can be accused of going for quantity rather than quality in midfield.
- The really big questions come up front. Remarkably, the team goes into 2019 without an out-and-out striker on the books, a gamble that leaves the team without a viable plan B for situations that don't demand the use of a false nine. The entire team's goalscoring hopes are apparently pinned on Alex Mitrita – a player who's flopped in every league except Romania's, who NYCFC are widely regarded to have overpaid for. Early signs suggest while Mitrita may be talented, he's unlikely to lead the line as Villa did. Meanwhile, a promised new striker to give the team a different look up front has so far failed to materialize, continuing a trend where the front office is seemingly content to sit on piles of allocation money for most of the season. Jesus Medina continues to be a mystery, and while he seems guaranteed a starting place, his best role in the first XI still seems unclear, and his value as a DP unclearer still. Medina may on occasion push out Ismael Tajouri-Shradi, who already faces a gargantuan task to avoid regressing to the mean in terms of scoring goals, and seems like a prime candidate for a sophomore slump. Meanwhile, the baffling omission of Jonathan Lewis continues, with Torrent and senior team leaders queuing up to pour cold water on the winger's showcase with the USMNT, just as excitement was building.
- Throw in a fanbase which is ambivalent at best and angry at worst, a continuing stalemate over the stadium situation, and a front office in a state of transition...it's not going to be a great year.
