2025 Roster and Transfer Discussion Thread

[gbservis]

Bakrar reportedly left for $2M less than we paid for him. We spent $1M on Risa, and it sounds like he returned to his former club for free. Jovan ($8.6M fee) and Magno ($8M fee) are both out on loan. For a club whose leadership constantly emphasizes the need to "run like a business," it's staggering how much money has gone out the door with little or no return. We're approaching $20M in completely sunk costs—and that doesn’t even include the millions tied up in underperforming players still on the roster.

 

[413Blue]

Bakrar reportedly left for $2M less than we paid for him. We spent $1M on Risa, and it sounds like he returned to his former club for free. Jovan ($8.6M fee) and Magno ($8M fee) are both out on loan. For a club whose leadership constantly emphasizes the need to "run like a business," it's staggering how much money has gone out the door with little or no return. We're approaching $20M in completely sunk costs—and that doesn’t even include the millions tied up in underperforming players still on the roster.

I mean it's not unusual for clubs to have hits and misses in the transfer market. Sure, we've had quite a few misses in recent years and I'm sure we must be in the red during the Lee era, you need to include the broader picture.

 

[gbservis]

I mean it's not unusual for clubs to have hits and misses in the transfer market. Sure, we've had quite a few misses in recent years and I'm sure we must be in the red during the Lee era, you need to include the broader picture.

We can look broader—excluding O’Neill and Nico, since we haven’t seen enough from either to make a fair judgment yet. Below is a list of players Lee has signed for over $1 million:

Mijatović – $8.7M
Ojeda – $7M
Ilenić – $1M
Fernández – $5M
Bakrar – $3M (sold for $1M)
Risa – $1M (transferred out for free)
Thiago Martins – $3.8M (occupies a DP slot)
Talles Magno – $7.5M
Thiago Andrade – $1.6M (no transfer fee out; total loss)
Malte Amundsen – $1.4M (traded for $400K GAM; ~$1M loss)
Acevedo – $2.3M

Lee did make big profits on Taty and Santi, but beyond that, his track record on high-cost signings is abysmal—and it’s a major reason the team is flirting with missing the playoffs for the second time in three years.

Before Nico arrived, the five most expensive player acquisitions in club history were: Jovan ($8.7M), Mitri ($8M), Magno ($7.5M), Ojeda ($7M), and Fernández ($5M). It’s normal to miss on a few signings, but every one of Lee’s high-dollar moves has been a miss. In a capped league like MLS, you simply can’t afford that kind of failure rate and expect to be a real contender.

 

[Gene]

This just reinforces my belief that CFG is calling the shots on the big money signings.
How does Lee keep his job with a track record like this?

 

[ZYanksRule]

This just reinforces my belief that CFG is calling the shots on the big money signings.
How does Lee keep his job with a track record like this?

This team, in 10 years, has never fired a sporting director. Do you have faith in Manchester to find a new one? Do you have faith in Noted Soccer Person Brad Sims to lead that search?

I think David Lee's time should be up unless we make a playoff run, but I'm not exactly looking forward to seeing what the home office does with that opening if it happens.

 

[KevinJRogers]

This team, in 10 years, has never fired a sporting director. Do you have faith in Manchester to find a new one? Do you have faith in Noted Soccer Person Brad Sims to lead that search?

I think David Lee's time should be up unless we make a playoff run, but I'm not exactly looking forward to seeing what the home office does with that opening if it happens.

It's a huge question. If we flop, what comes next? Do we hire an experienced sporting director from Europe? Is there someone within CFG the board already has in mind?

And what about Pep? He said he's done coaching for a while — maybe even forever — after his run at Manchester City. He loves New York, and he's not one to just sit around. Is it possible he kicks himself upstairs?

That could be the most intriguing prospect of all.

 

[Gene]

This team, in 10 years, has never fired a sporting director. Do you have faith in Manchester to find a new one? Do you have faith in Noted Soccer Person Brad Sims to lead that search?

I think David Lee's time should be up unless we make a playoff run, but I'm not exactly looking forward to seeing what the home office does with that opening if it happens.

I've come to grips with the fact the job will always be held by a City Football Group toadie who will follow directives from the mothership.

 

[mgarbowski]

Atlanta hired Garth Lagerway as CEO in 2022 and every acquisition since then has busted.

Anyone we hire will be dependent on CFG scouting.

I’m not sure it matters who we have in the Sporting Director position.

I would like to have no reason to question whether the primary goal of any given acquisition is to improve the team.

 

[KevinJRogers]

I would like to have no reason to question whether the primary goal of any given acquisition is to improve the team.

Therein lies the rub ...

 

[gbservis]

Atlanta hired Garth Lagerway as CEO in 2022 and every acquisition since then has busted.

Anyone we hire will be dependent on CFG scouting.

I’m not sure it matters who we have in the Sporting Director position.

I would like to have no reason to question whether the primary goal of any given acquisition is to improve the team.

Sims has said that Lee is the architect of the current model and was the one who initiated the shift toward a younger, development-and-sell strategy. At the very least, a new sporting director could bring a more balanced approach. Development and sales will always be part of our roster-building, but perhaps someone new would be smart enough to respond to one of the worst seasons in club history with something other than spending $18 million on three 18-year-olds.

Even if Lee remains, I’m cautiously optimistic that the recent signings of Nico and O’Neill may signal that he’s finally adjusting his approach—especially considering this is effectively his third major roster rebuild.

The scouting issue is a compelling one. Given the extensive resources of CFG’s scouting network, it’s puzzling that so many high-cost acquisitions miss the mark. The possible explanations I can think of are:

• CFG scouting may not fully understand the level and demands of MLS, leading to a mismatch in identifying players who can succeed here.
• While CFG has robust scouting capabilities overall, they may not be heavily focused on the specific age, salary, and talent profile that fits MLS best.
• NYCFC—or Lee specifically—may be making many of the player decisions independently, without heavily leveraging CFG’s scouting network (though that seems unlikely).
• CFG may view NYCFC (and potentially other clubs in the network) as holding spots for high-upside, high-risk prospects. The idea could be that if enough of them are signed, a few will eventually break through and deliver value.

 

[Revfugee]

We can look broader—excluding O’Neill and Nico, since we haven’t seen enough from either to make a fair judgment yet. Below is a list of players Lee has signed for over $1 million:

Mijatović – $8.7M
Ojeda – $7M
Ilenić – $1M
Fernández – $5M
Bakrar – $3M (sold for $1M)
Risa – $1M (transferred out for free)
Thiago Martins – $3.8M (occupies a DP slot)
Talles Magno – $7.5M
Thiago Andrade – $1.6M (no transfer fee out; total loss)
Malte Amundsen – $1.4M (traded for $400K GAM; ~$1M loss)
Acevedo – $2.3M

Lee did make big profits on Taty and Santi, but beyond that, his track record on high-cost signings is abysmal—and it’s a major reason the team is flirting with missing the playoffs for the second time in three years.

Before Nico arrived, the five most expensive player acquisitions in club history were: Jovan ($8.7M), Mitri ($8M), Magno ($7.5M), Ojeda ($7M), and Fernández ($5M). It’s normal to miss on a few signings, but every one of Lee’s high-dollar moves has been a miss. In a capped league like MLS, you simply can’t afford that kind of failure rate and expect to be a real contender.

Agree with most of this. I don’t think you can call Martins a bust. He’s been reliable and at times excellent. If he was one of 3 decent DPs signings we probably wouldn’t complain about him. The problem is that we haven’t so far had two other decent DP signings so he sticks out like a sore thumb. Hopefully Nico will help on that tip and he is off to a great start.

Of all of these, Malte is the most mystifying. From a spare part on a fringe playoff team to a regular on one of the best sides in the league. At a loss. Columbus pulled off a heist.

Doesn’t Lee deserve some credit for Pereira too? I’m mad that we let him walk with so little fight but he was undeniably a great signing.

 

[gbservis]

Agree with most of this. I don’t think you can call Martins a bust. He’s been reliable and at times excellent. If he was one of 3 decent DPs signings we probably wouldn’t complain about him. The problem is that we haven’t so far had two other decent DP signings so he sticks out like a sore thumb. Hopefully Nico will help on that tip and he is off to a great start.

Of all of these, Malte is the most mystifying. From a spare part on a fringe playoff team to a regular on one of the best sides in the league. At a loss. Columbus pulled off a heist.

Doesn’t Lee deserve some credit for Pereira too? I’m mad that we let him walk with so little fight but he was undeniably a great signing.

Good point, I missed Pereira. Lee paid $5M for him and sold him for $10M. Santi likely belongs on the list too, but we don't know what Lee we paid for him, as it was intra CFG, so the fee went unreported. This list wasn't intented to be a list of busts; it's a list of all players Lee paid over $1M for, it just looks like a list of busts because he's terrible at picking high transfer fee players.

I agree with your Martin's take, he's not a bust but likely not the best use of a DP spot and certainly not the best sole DP as you said.

Revised list:

Mijatović – $8.7M
Ojeda – $7M
Ilenić – $1M
Fernández – $5M
Bakrar – $3M (sold for $1M)
Risa – $1M (transferred out for free)
Pereira- $5M (Sold for $10M)
Thiago Martins – $3.8M (occupies a DP slot)
Talles Magno – $7.5M
Thiago Andrade – $1.6M (no transfer fee out; total loss)
Malte Amundsen – $1.4M (traded for $400K GAM; ~$1M loss)
Acevedo – $2.3M
Santi - ?

 

[KevinJRogers]

CFG scouting may not fully understand the level and demands of MLS, leading to a mismatch in identifying players who can succeed here.

This wouldn't surprise me in the least.

 

[EganSoccerWords]

This is verbose but some of you need to read this while discussing transfer fees: Theory of Transfer Fees

 

[gbservis]

This is verbose but some of you need to read this while discussing transfer fees: Theory of Transfer Fees

The Charles Dickens of roster economics uses a lot of words to make a few straightforward points:

• Transfer fees are limited by the additional on-field value a player brings beyond their current market value.
• Clubs pay a premium to capture future performance gains that exceed the market value.
• Transfer fees aren’t arbitrary—they function as mechanisms to balance value shifts between clubs.

(Side note: I'm not sure anyone actually thinks fees are arbitrary, but I guess if you set a baseline of complete misunderstanding, it helps position your 10,000-word article as more revelatory.)

None of this changes the criticism of David Lee. Take Risa, for example—no one’s saying we should have gotten a fee for him on the way out. We get that there was no value left to recover. That’s the problem. And no one’s even arguing that Risa was a disastrous signing in isolation. The issue is structural:

If your model is “develop and sell,” but the majority of your high-cost acquisitions are losing value before they hit their prime, and the team is underperforming on the field, you are failing—regardless of how you frame transfer fee theory.

Under Lee over the last 3 years:

• Transfer spending has increased significantly, with this much roster investment, better results should be expected
• Roster churn is at an all-time high
• On-field results are at an all-time low

That’s the issue, not a misunderstanding of transfer fee valuation and front office strategy.

 

[KevinJRogers]

If your model is “develop and sell,” but the majority of your high-cost acquisitions are losing value before they hit their prime, and the team is underperforming on the field, you are failing—regardless of how you frame transfer fee theory.

This is the heart of the matter. No question about it. The next question then becomes, how much of the issue is player development and how much of it is the acquisitions themselves?

David Lee obviously landed on the first part of that question and sent Nick Cushing packing and brought Pascal in. If the board lands on the second part at the end of this campaign, his bags are next.

 

[gbservis]

To clean up the data, I went back through the Transfermarkt website and compiled each year’s total transfer fee spend into a table, along with a list of the major transfer-fee signings contributing to those totals.

A few notes on the data:

1. Currency inconsistency: Transfermarkt.us labels all fees in GBP, but in some cases, based on signing announcements, the actual fee was in USD and not converted. This introduces some noise into the numbers.
2. Season classification: Transfermarkt organizes seasons using the European calendar. As a result, the yearly groupings might be slightly misaligned, especially for MLS-specific timelines.

2024 in particular is a colossal disaster. Roughly a bit over a year later, three of the seven signings are no longer on the roster, and none of them have established themselves as first-choice starters. Yet the club spent more on transfer fees in that single year than it did in total over the first six years of its existence—across the entirety of Claudio’s tenure as sporting director.

 

[FootyLovin]

I wonder how much of the problem is how all-in they went on the buy low sell high strategy. If you had 2 quality veterans, at least 1 a DP in the attacking group, would these young players have developed better?

Medina, Heber, Taty, Parks all developed well. Mitrita is an anomaly due to COVID. Magno was on a stellar developmental path before the team collapsed in 2022. It's hard for a group of almost all youths to develop.

Maxi at his current age isn't going to do it for them. Who else? Wolf and Alonso are terrific. But they aren't the players who will transform young talent. You need skilled veterans who will lift up everyone around them, both in training and on game day, veterans who will be catalysts for a culture of winning.

So I wonder, how much of this failure is bad picks and how much of it is putting picks into a system that doesn't have the quality to support their growth?

 

[gbservis]

I wonder how much of the problem is how all-in they went on the buy low sell high strategy. If you had 2 quality veterans, at least 1 a DP in the attacking group, would these young players have developed better?

Medina, Heber, Taty, Parks all developed well. Mitrita is an anomaly due to COVID. Magno was on a stellar developmental path before the team collapsed in 2022. It's hard for a group of almost all youths to develop.

Maxi at his current age isn't going to do it for them. Who else? Wolf and Alonso are terrific. But they aren't the players who will transform young talent. You need skilled veterans who will lift up everyone around them, both in training and on game day, veterans who will be catalysts for a culture of winning.

So I wonder, how much of this failure is bad picks and how much of it is putting picks into a system that doesn't have the quality to support their growth?

Adding to this, the NYCFC championship team was a perfect example of the balanced model you're describing. At every level of the roster, experienced players were paired with developing talent in a way that helped both thrive:

Defense: Chanot, Callens, and Tinnerholm provided leadership while Gray and Amundsen stepped into starting roles and gained experience.
Midfield: Alfredo Morales and Maxi played key leadership roles for a young group that included Sands, Parks, Acevedo, and Haak.
Attack: Maxi, ITS, and Heber helped guide Taty, Santi, Magno, and Medina as they found their footing.

All of the veteran players joined the team in their mid-twenties or later and brought meaningful experience from higher-level leagues. The club’s biggest development successes came during that period—Sands, Haak, Parks, Taty, and Santi.

It's still hard to understand why the club chose to abandon that formula. They built something successful, then pivoted sharply to a much younger development-focused model built around expensive prospects and very few accomplished veterans to balance them out.

 

[LionNYC]

16 days left in the transfer window. Only one official signing.