What happens in years where the NASL relegates three teams from the east coast and NPSL promotes two from the west? Do you realign the divisions every year based on pro/rel?
[And side note, love the graph and analysis.]
Expansion Rumors Megathread
- Thread starter MagnusPax
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[And side note, love the graph and analysis.]
Yeah, whatever makes most sense for travel. Maybe you just organize the teams in a single table but use regional grouping for scheduling purposes or something. Point is, one of the hurdles for these amateur and semi-pro teams making the jump to a professional league is the nationwide travel. At division three and below, it would help immensely to split the country into smaller regional groupings.
For the fictional NPSL I created above? No, my original plan was to have two divisions that each played balanced schedules, and the winners of each were promoted. Then the second place team in each division played a playoff game to see which one was promoted. I agree that it's important.
Wilf would never let them play there. That option isn't on the table. They are 90% playing at TCF Bank Stadium, and there's an outside chance they play at Target Field if something falls through in negotiations with the University.
Garber recently stated that round to expand to 28 will be the last round of expansion: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/garber...nstitutes-sweeping-change-224834805--mls.html
While we all know that's probably bullshit, in order to keep the illusion of scarcity and drive up the price of the expansion slots, it definitely piqued my interest again in thinking about how a "finished" MLS would impact and interact with the lower leagues.
So I made a thing:
Let me explain what's going here.
Once MLS closes it's doors for good (in this projection at 28 teams), there will be effectively two professional soccer ladders in America - the closed MLS represented in circles above, and the NASL represented in squares above.
The MLS will remain the top league in the country with the greatest level of investment, best markets, and largest fanbases. It will also remain relatively linear in talent distribution, due to the parity rules that MLS is fond of. Lastly, the MLS "ladder" would end with MLS teams and, obviously, no pro/reg to lower levels.
The NASL will remain the clear second division in the country, but there are some very solid markets available in the country that are locked out of MLS, not to mention second teams in Chicago, New York, and Miami. There's also plenty of foreign and domestic investor money, and an international player pool to supply the teams.
The NASL's decentralized nature will lead to two things: (1) top NASL teams will be able to invest enough to build very solid squads, and (2) the distribution of talent will be exponential rather than linear. As a result, some NASL teams may be better than the worse MLS team (four teams are in the above graphic), but are still unlikely to compete with the top MLS squads.
In addition, it's a poorly kept secret that the NASL eventually would like a pro/reg setup, and the NPSL has already been floated as that lower level. So the NASL ladder would be open and go down at least one level to NASL2/NPSL on the same exponential talent distribution curve. In the graphic above, I did both levels with 18 teams each (which would give a 34 game double round robin schedule).
Lastly, I shaded in areas that divide up the 64 professional teams into three equal tiers of teams, just to compare talent levels across leagues. You can see that at the top, about two teams in the NASL are able to call themselves "tier one" talent level. The bottom nine teams in MLS (i.e. most of the non-postseason qualifiers) would all be projected to finish in the top four of the NASL if relegation existed, and therefore fit better as "tier two" talent level teams. At the bottom, the trail end of the NASL falls in the bottom third of talent levels, and would appropriately be relegated to the lower division at the end of the year.
So how would this look for competitions?
You'd have the MLS teams competing each year for the Supporters Shield (or conference trophies). Almost every MLS team that also has a talent level in approximately the top third of professional teams will also qualify for the playoffs to compete for the MLS Cup.
Everyone would compete for the US Open Cup each year, with tier one talent teams all having a real shot at winning. That would include the top 2 NASL teams, which really gives that NASL tier something to aspire to and play for.
Finally, the CCL, which is obviously contested by the top MLS winners and the winner of the US Open Cup.
So to wrap up this long winded post, what do you think? Could this be an actual equilibrium for American club soccer, for both all financially interested parties and as acceptable in the eyes of the fans? Can the NASL keep the talent gap as close as I have indicated on my graph?
interesting idea but NASL and other pro rel guys want mls to die not co exist.
the whole NPSL/NASL idea is intriguing but still not going to happen unless there is some sort of league in between both then a pro rel can sort of exist. even now there are a few B and U 23 teams that will play in NPSL ( i think the silverbacks kinda sorta self relagated to NPSL )
also this goes against what NASL has said about wanting to get in big markets.
well for some NPSL teams yes the organic thing is pretty real and cool ( See detroit city fc) but for the rest of the league its hit or miss.....i mean every year there are like 12 or more teams moving/ folding/ or rebranded...cant develop organic like that. also all these owners want to have a shot at first division but all of them are amateurs right now....they dont know how life is as a pro team with all the expenses and salaries involved.
So? Doesn't matter what they want, if this is where their model is leading too.
Of course. NPSL isn't even professional. I outlined a plan for building a middle league to bridge the gap above.
The PDL actually ventured into something very similar a few years ago. They allowed a PDL Pro designation for teams. The issue they're up against is that their players want to retain the amateur status, and they can't play side-by-side with professional players, even if they themselves aren't paid. However, they can play against professional players. So the PDL experimented briefly with having a few professional teams in an otherwise amateur league, but it appears that died on the vine.
NPSL should try that again, and my idea is to actually have these professional teams play in their own division, and slowly raise the standards for participation until they can split off to make a new intermediate league between existing NPSL and NASL.
Not really. Nothing in my scenario says the NASL can't have teams in Chicago, Miami, Detroit, Los Angeles, New York, etc. It's just that a majority of their teams will be in places like OKC, Jacksonville, Raleigh, etc. They'll lag behind, but top teams will be allowed to thrive. I could see a situation where they get a national TV deal for a "NASL Game of the Week" that almost always consists of one or two of the top teams, like Cosmos v Sting. And then the top 10-15 NASL teams have local TV deals. Maybe eventually there is a NASL Network, like the Big Ten Network has for their sports, or a Cosmos Network, like the Longhorn Network for the University of Texas.
Big dreams, I know. But fun to think about.
that was the talk last year but if it happens it will happen in a few years. i still think its only handful of NPSL teams are capable of being pro with the support of NASL too. they can even have a pyramid with the other regional amateur league teams.
if thats the case what stops them from taking over MLS in terms of getting TV deals and other exposure. if there is enough pressure MLS will have to open up or let NASL/ NPSL/ whatever other amateur teams. in pyramid to try and poach players en masse, because people "love promotion and relegation" and get more tv deals
NASL/ NPSL can build something but i think it has to be with other smaller markets...they already have a miami/San francisco and cosmos ( technically Long island but whatever) and i know they are going for chicago. LA? i dont know its already two MLS teams why try to go to a market that is already congested...you lose out, you already have the " big markets" so go for the smaller ones to build IF its what they want.
i know there was rumor of CBS SPORTS broadcasting a few games but that was nothing more than a few tweets to no sure how valid that was.
The only pressure that matters is financial pressure. I think the leagues can co-exist in a financial equilibrium. MLS might, at some point, try to buy out the top couple NASL teams to kill the league, if they think it's cutting into their viewership and profits, but I think the NASL as a whole won't be all that threatening to MLS, even if they mature as I speculated. It'll just be a couple top teams each year that have legitimate chances to win the U.S. Open Cup, which makes for a great storyline and is the tiny, but real, carrot that can motivate the lower levels to get better and keep the fans hopeful and engaged.
Yeah it'll be an uphill battle.
their top team team barely beat us and got smoked by RB....but well see again how this plays out....i do try to follow the lower leagues but without money nothing may happen....even though pro rel guys claim that if system opens up then investment will "flood in"
i dont see it being that simple.their top team team barely beat us and got smoked by RB....but well see again how this plays out....i do try to follow the lower leagues but without money nothing may happen....even though pro rel guys claim that if system opens up then investment will "flood in"
NASL is extremely young. There's no real reason they can't eventually field more competitive teams. I mean, the Cosmos are looking to invest $200+ million in a stadium. Miami FC also has extremely deep pockets. Just gotta let it play out and see if they can get some traction. A few strong teams at the top could prop up the entire league.
you are right a few can but so far it seems to only be two (maybe three?) teams with the cash, and it doesnt help that they are losing teams ( minnesota, san antonio, atlanta) and their links with Traffic hurt them.
again, see how it goes.
I have extremely high hopes for Miami FC and the Cosmos, because they are going to dump serious money into their squads, I believe. I really think the NASL could end up with a distribution like the EPL - couple perennial contenders like the Cosmos and Miami FC, followed by a class of well supported solid squads, like Indianapolis and Jacksonville, and then a bottom half of teams that are just happy to be there and in their best years, don't have to worry about relegation.
This set of squads is on the immediate horizon:
Major Markets
New York Cosmos
Miami FC
Chicago [Sting]
San Francisco Deltas
Intermediate Markets
Indy Eleven
Jacksonville Armada
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Ft. Lauderdale Strikers
etc.
That's not a bad set. Fast forward two years and this top tier might be 10+ deep and picking up steam.
Tons of hurdles, but I see potential.
New York and San Fraancisco Bay Area not getting another team. RB should be renamed Cosmos though, and move to LI, ideally. Nor is Chicago.
Sacramento Republic would be ideal though.
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